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<p>[Bernanke:</a> Recession likely over, but slog ahead - Sep. 15, 2009](<a href=“Bernanke: Recession likely over, but slog ahead - Sep. 15, 2009”>Bernanke: Recession likely over, but slog ahead - Sep. 15, 2009)</p>
<p>Only about 10 percent of the stimulus package has been spent. What does that tell you?</p>
<p>Presuming Bernanke’s right, then GDP has stopped shrinking … so what? Is it really easier to get a job or sell a house or tell CitiBank where to stick its 27.99% credit card rate?</p>
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<p>It tells me that our govt is too bloated and cannot work efficiently ;)</p>
<p>From Yahoo:</p>
<p>Next Leg Down Will Be “More Painful Than The Last,” Pento Says
Posted Sep 16, 2009 08:00am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Recession</p>
<p>Puzzled by the strength and duration of the stock market rally? Michael Pento, chief economist at Delta Global Advisors, says it all makes perfect sense. “If the Federal Reserve is going to pay you less than 1% to deposit your savings… what are you going to do with that money?” Hence, the rally off the March lows.</p>
<p>Unfortunately for investors, Pento argues the rally is meaningless because our “purchasing power… is eroding everyday” as the U.S. dollar continues to lose value. “You can’t sit back and say since the S&P (500) is up over 50% that happy days are here again,” he protests. “You have to look at it in real terms.”</p>
<p>To put it in perspective: Pento claims, “if you bought the S&P 500 on December 31, 1999 you’re down 50%, in terms of U.S. dollars.” And next to gold, the comparison is even worse, “you’re down 79% in the last 10 years. It’s no wonder why investor feel they’re under the weather,” he says. </p>
<p>So what’s an investor to do?</p>
<p>He recommends buying hard assets like gold as a hedge on inflation. (A topic we discuss in detail in a forthcoming segment.) </p>
<p>And, if you own stocks, stay long, until the Federal Reserve starts raising rates “aggressively,” Pento suggests. “When they do raise interest rates, since the debt of the nation is growing at a 4.1% annual rate, the next time down is going to be much more painful than the last.”</p>
<p>Let’s hope either he’s wrong about the market’s fate or the Fed’s ability to manage its exit strategy.</p>
<p>Our view from the construction industry is that we have possibly (knock on wood) finished tumbling uncontrollably down the side of the mountain, but that we’re going to be dragged bleeding along the gravel trail by wild horses for a while to come yet.</p>
<p>The view of the economists with whom we consult at my job is that we will not begin to see real, sustainable growth and a rise in consumer confidence until 2012. Yup, that’s a lot later than the government is telling everyone.</p>
<p>From what I am seeing as industries continue to contract and lay off workers, I can’t disagree with their analysis.</p>
<p>aibarr, also in construction in CA here. We are seeing a big lag time. In other words the past year was spent completing projects which were under contract. Unfortunately not a lot of new work on the immediate horizon. (I am talking about mainly commercial not residential construction here). New projects may be finally designed but the time between that happening and people actually working at a jobsite could be a year or more. Stimulus funding for projects takes an even slower course. I definitely see little improvement till 2012.</p>
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<p>Oh, what a coincidence! Wonder what is set to happen in 2012? Nothing like some good ol’ Porculus to make locals forget about the true impact of flawed policies.</p>
<p>I have a new project to work on in addition to my current work and there’s another one in the pipeline so it appears that we have new projects in addition to maintenance on our current ones so things appear to be pretty good where I am.</p>
<p>I spoke to a friend at HP last night and he said that he’s still working. The culture there is that anyone can get cut at any time and it doesn’t have to make sense. His business line is doing well but they were cut - they could be doing more business with more people. Sometimes businesses cut just for the sake of cutting and cut off additional profits. That’s life in a downturn. It’s nice in NH with a relatively low unemployment rate.</p>
<p>Never, ever, underestimate the cost of wars, cost to recovery’s or the cost of college. Hell to pay if you got it wrong. `</p>
<p>Better to have too much firepower, than to not enough. Shame to lose a war when you could have won it with more men and guns, especially when the generals asked for them. </p>
<p>:)</p>
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<p>Same here. We’re all making ourselves sick looking at the backlog projections every week.</p>
<p>Good luck to us all…! =</p>
<p>Lol. I look every day. I must be a glutton for punishment or I keep thinking that somehow miraculously the numbers will change on their own overnight!</p>
<p>Did you see this article today that more and more Americans are living paycheck to paycheck? (HA! if they have a paycheck)</p>
<p>[More</a> Americans living paycheck to paycheck - Austin Business Journal:](<a href=“http://austin.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2009/09/14/daily27.html]More”>http://austin.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2009/09/14/daily27.html)</p>
<p>But really alarming to me is that “The survey also found that 30 percent of workers with salaries of $100,000 or more report that they, too, live paycheck to paycheck, up from 21 percent in 2008.”</p>
<p>If true, that does not bode well for the strength and length of the current recovery.</p>
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<p>The same is true for real estate…I find it comical that mtg brokers, realtors and construction all agree it is still not pretty, and we are not seeing even an increase to jump for joy like the media is proclaiming when they say that we have these outstanding increases.</p>
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<p>It tells me that the “only 10 percent spent” line is a simplistic analysis that fundamentally misreads both where we stand with respect to the economic stimulus, and where we stand with respect to economic recovery. The first step was to stop the economic free-fall; that happened over the last several months as the rate of economic shrinkage slowed. Step two was to stabilize the economy. That’s where we are right now; the “end of the recession” heralded by Bernanke and others means only that the economy is no longer shrinking—not that it’s growing very much. Step three is to get a real sustainable recovery going. We’re not there yet, but the remaining economic stimulus will play an important role by continuing to help bolster demand at a time when nervous consumers are still in belt-tightening mode. The stimulus bill itself isn’t big enough to jump-start a robust economic recovery; mostly this has got to be the result of market forces coming around, e.g., home prices stabilizing and home sales increasing, businesses ramping up production to replace lost inventory, and consumers regaining confidence and opening up their wallets a little. But in the meantime, the stimulus is a critical part of the equation, pumping money into the economy to keep some forward momentum at a very fragile stage of the recovery.</p>
<p>As for the “only 10% spent” figure, that’s highly misleading. Maybe only 10% has actually been disbursed. But pledges of the remaining 90% have stabilized state and local government budgets and kept tens of thousands of cops, firefighters, teachers, and other public employees from losing their jobs, thus helping to pull the economy out of its downward tailspin. Tens of billions have been committed to highway, bridge, and public transit projects; the money may not technically be “spent” until the projects are completed, but it’s firmly committed and and is generating economic activity that simply wouldn’t have happened absent those commitments. Thousands of homes are being weatherized, putting additional construction crews to work, pumping up demand for insulation and other construction materials, and saving low-income households large sums in winter heating bills, money that can go into other purchases. Additional funds are going into health care and university research, pumping more money into local economies.</p>
<p>Here’s a run-down of just a few of the things the stimulus money is supporting in my state:</p>
<p>[kare11.com</a> | Twin Cities, MN | <i>Extra:</i> Stimulus money flows into Minnesota](<a href=“404 Not Found | kare11.com”>404 Not Found | kare11.com)</p>
<p>These strike as by and large useful and necessary projects that are putting people to work or keeping them at work and thus keeping the local economy from contracting even further until the markets come around.</p>
<p>Hahahahahahaha. What will the PR machine say tomorrow?</p>
<p>I live in Michigan. I just LOVE all the wonderful news about new jobs coming to our state. My question is: How much do these jobs pay? $8-10 an hour just doesn’t excite me. 1000 new jobs don’t excite me - not when we’ve lost far more. I just can’t get excited about this corner we are supposedly turning, because what I see when I turn isn’t so hot.</p>
<p>I can’t even contemplate what the state of mind in Michigan is right now. It creeps me out to drive down the road and see boarded-up places like Bennigan’s, Circuit City, Linens ‘n’ Things, Home Depot Expo, Sharper Image, not to mention all the smaller specialty stores… I have some friends who’ve been trying to sell their Ann Arbor home for about two years now. He’s staying with the house and dog while she’s going to school in Indiana for her law and business degrees.</p>
<p>The first big crash that I remember happened just about a year ago, when all of us here in Houston had just been hit by Ike, and we were all sweltering in our soggy houses and just hoping that the electricity would turn back on soon.</p>
<p>Kind of feels like we’re hoping the electricity will turn back on soon now, too.</p>
<p>"And, it’s not just minimum wage workers who are struggling. The survey also found that 30 percent of workers with salaries of $100,000 or more report that they, too, live paycheck to paycheck, up from 21 percent in 2008.</p>
<p>To make ends meet, 21 percent said they have reduced their 401(k) contributions or personal savings in the last six months. An additional 36 percent said they don’t put any money in retirement plans, up from 31 percent in 2008."</p>
<p>This is true of my husband and I, but it has been a tough year, with having to move across the country and pay both mortgage and rent for 5 months. We hope to get back on track with savings next year.</p>
<p>What is interesting about this is that I thought I read another article that stated that people are actually saving more than they used to. Which one is right I wonder?</p>
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<p>[FedEx</a> upbeat on outlook despite lower profit | Reuters](<a href=“http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE58G2HD20090917]FedEx”>http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE58G2HD20090917)</p>
<p>I hope Fred is right. I could deal with 4.9 percent GDP growth in the 4th quarter.</p>