<p>It seems as if in the last 3 years (extremely so this year, or maybe I just had bad luck) gift items in retail stores have disappeared extremely early, ahead of schedule. To have entire inventory picked over 3 weeks before Christmas seems odd to me. I’m wondering: are retailers cautiously keeping low inventory? (Wondering if people have the cash to spend?) Conversely, are customers throwing caution to the wind? Is this a sign of population density (vs., again, retailers being willing to have ‘leftovers’)?</p>
<p>Looks to me as if there won’t be much to buy in those ‘after-Christmas’ sales!</p>
<p>I’m just wondering if my experience is unusual, or has been observed by anyone else here.</p>
<p>OTOH, is it hard to predict inventory needs, given assumptions of online purchase history for any particular company?</p>
<p>I noticed low inventory this year. Specifically, I was surprised not to be able to find Christmas tree lights or garland the week before Christmas, and I looked several places.</p>
<p>I had the same problem. A string of lights from last year worked fine when I put them up - and two weeks later stopped working. I couldn’t find a defective or damaged bulb, just one that didn’t work. </p>
<p>And I couldn’t find replacements at any of the normal stores I went to. Did they really sell them all out, or did I just not go to the right place?</p>
<p>Post 2: which is not as quite as unusual as 3 weeks ahead, even if a little unusual.</p>
<p>I mean when several retailers you call tell you, “Oh, we stopped having any of those in the store ___ weeks ago!” And when you walk into a retail store to find one of everything remaining, one week after Thanksgiving, you want to say, “Hmmm. Did I sleep through an alarm or something?”</p>
<p>I, too, observed lower inventories. I went to the GAP to find an outfit for DD. THe store seemed so low on stock. But it seemed like there was an overabundance of sweaters!</p>
<p>Well, I was also an early shopper who found what I needed but paid a higher price! This week, the item I bought was at a discount store for $145 plus a $50 gift card! I paid $199 for the same item (except w/8GB more) and no bonus gift card. I need gifts for family coming to town tomorrow! I hope there’s stuff left!</p>
<p>For months and months, CC has had numerous threads on saving money. Now we are seeing a thread on low retail store inventories. Based on the CC index, it appears that the economy is improving.</p>
<p>My understanding is that retail outlets ordered less. On another board (budget related) I frequent, last January people got tremendous bargains on Hickory Farms products lonline ast year in January. Just the other day, someone commented that HF online had almost nothing left.</p>
<p>My childrens’ schools PTAs stock up at the after Christmas sales for both the elementary school bingo night and Project Graduation prizes (my children are very spread out in ages). Looking at Target and stuff, things were fairly well picked over already. </p>
<p>I think all those monthly Fed reports of retails sales orders down or such a thing probably are reflected in these observations.</p>
<p>I suppose. Unfortunately, though, it’s circular. No/low inventory = no/low sales! Works both ways. </p>
<p>As with Wall Street, I guess: perception is everything. Retailers not having confidence in the public’s buying power, combined with their insecurity over not being able to predict online purchases, probably led to very conservative inventories. I read that the Christmas tree sellers were saying that they way under-purchased this year, had to close much prior to Christmas.</p>
<p>There was an article on this in one of the financial websites this morning.</p>
<p>Virtual inventory is much easier to do than physical inventory and it is so convenient.</p>
<p>A coworker had an Amazon box outside of his office and I asked him if he had bought textbooks (his son goes to a private school). He told me that the box was for packages of gum. He showed me two bricks of gum and explained that it was for his wife and that it was cheaper and more convenient to buy it from Amazon than to go to a retail store.</p>
<p>A few days ago I received an email from Amazon advertising car parts. I can see some promise in that as they’d know my make and model and could do targeted advertising emails.</p>
<p>This isn’t directly corrollated with holiday retail inventories, but I think it says something about the purchasers for a given store…</p>
<p>Every August, it is nearly impossible to find inventories of sunscreen in the Target I shop in. Winter clothing is in - summer clothing is out. So, often, if you don’t purchase either the sunscreen or shorts you need, you can’t find them during the hottest months in So Cal.</p>
<p>I asked a manager one year, “why?” He said that the purchasing decisions are based in Minneapolis, and that they usually work a “few months” ahead. In some midwestern states, kids start going back to school in August - hence, putting out fall/winter clothes for back to school shopping. (Of course, having lived in midwest at one point, August is not usually cold requiring sweaters or jackets. Anywhere! Slightly illogical for the customer who still has a need for these items. But the theory is that they didn’t want to get “stuck” with unneeded inventory at the end of the summer - thus, deeply discounted summer clothing wear back in July at the mid-point of the season. </p>
<p>If you order less, or discount early, I suppose the retailer wins in some way, having not to get rid of merchandise at a loss.</p>
<p>lgm-I have noticed the seasonal thing too. You’re in trouble if your kid loses his mittens in February. I went out today for a few after Christmas bargains and one of my favorite stores has started putting out some spring things. Last summer I saw the back to school supplies out in late June, my kids had only been out of school a week at that point. When will it end?</p>
<p>I noticed this trend in a lot of retail stores…even my local garden center , where I buy my trees and wreaths. Hardly anything , even early in the season. Our store had less inventory , somewhat and we had to make adjustments on the price range of our normal inventory ( to try to lure people away from Walmart and Target type stores.</p>
<p>I’m a retailer. As a small independent, I work on a different schedule and different margins than your big chains so my experience may be different.</p>
<p>I purchase a minimal amount of Christmas themed merchandise. I buy it as much on sale as I can … my distributors promote holiday merchandise in October. I never price it at retail list, but rather about 75% of list. I justify this stuff <em>to myself</em> as store decoration – because it’s just not going to sell with good margins. By next weekend the unsold holiday stuff will be packed away. I’ll sell it marked down this week, but much of it will not move at any price. You can buy it next year!</p>
<p>After having packed away doggie reindeer antlers every year … this year I sold out early without the opportunity to reorder. I had several requests for them in the last week before Christmas.</p>
<p>And if you are wondering about Hanukkah themed doggie items … please buy them. I’ve had them. They don’t sell. More store decor …</p>
<p>My DH and I have a retail business–bike parts. Most people buy bike parts in the spring when they’re getting ready for summer. But there are multiple reasons you don’t see much inventory this year:</p>
<p>*you have to purchase as much as a year in advance (we order our year’s allotment of some bike parts in September)
*many manufacturers didn’t want to take the risk of having unsold inventory
*you have to pay taxes on your inventory – and for most companies that’s what you’ve got on January 1st. Better to sell it than to have to count it and pay taxes on it.</p>
<p>epiphany - it is not your imagination. I do not recall seeing so many sold-out things in any other year. Garmin runner’s watch - sold out on Amazon and elswhere. $1000 Prada bags on Ruelala - sold out in 3 hours (not that I would ever spend $1K on a purse!). Fancy bags and boots were flying off the shelves at local upscale shops. Costco ran out of many things, including the cordless drill I wanted to get for my hubby. Yeah, the CC meter tells me we are bottoming out.</p>
<p>The level of affluence on this board sometimes amazes me but it does make for an interesting consumer indicator. Luxury good stocks have done nicely in the last few months and Simon Property Group (largest mall operator in US) has performed well.</p>
<p>BC - I don’t know how much longer it will last. May be you should join Ruelala and just watch what sells out. I kick my rear end for not buying my favorite store’s stock last year but I’m not inclined to buy it now. The luxury goods that sold out were 50% off.</p>
<p>I can only go by my experience as a cookie mom for the Girl Scout troop. It used to be that you had to order a whole case of cookies at a time. So if I had a customer who wanted 4 boxes of Thin Mints, I would make more money by not selling to him, than by selling to him and being stuck with 8 boxes of Thin Mints. </p>
<p>Unsold inventory is a killer–eats up a lot of profit. I can see why retailers would keep a low inventory this year when they just don’t have confidence that the consumer is out in full force and in the buying mood.</p>
<p>My biggest low inventory item this year: Trader Joe’s Cookbook!</p>
but I’m not inclined to buy it now. The luxury goods that sold out were 50% off.</p>