SAT Essay Scores

I am going to take my SAT with essay soon, and I want to know what my chances are to getting admited into a top UC (I’ve really got my heart set on UC Berkeley and UC LA).

I am positive I’ll get at least a 1510, and a 6|4|6 or if I’m lucky, 6|5|6|.

EC’s- I’ve been a musician for last 10 years, and I’m going to UC Berkeley’s summer sessions this year, taking community classes next 3-4 semsters for CS, and thinking of developing an app.

I’m also a TA for a music group, but no other leadership activities…

What are my chances?

At least, what essay score should I aim for, or at least, what is the lowest score I can get before having to retake the test again? In other words, will anything lower than a 6 in 1 category (like a 4) hurt my chances of admission?

Not sure how much the top tier UCs consider the SAT essay, but I would think that 18 from what I hear is probably the baseline that you need to achieve. So 18 and above.

UC admissions is not just about your test scores and your essay score is considered but your SAT Math and EBRW scores are considered more important.
For 2017 the 25th-75th percentile for the eassay section was 16-20. What us important to the UC’s is your UC GPA capped weighted and Fully weighted along with HS course rigor and essays. Your music EC’s should help you.

25th - 75th percentiles for SAT:

UCB: 1280-1490

UCLA: 1280-1500