say there was a disease outbreak

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1

<p>of 600 people</p>

<p>plan A: 200 people live, 400 people die
plan B: one-third chance everyone survives, 2/3rds chance everyone dies</p>

<p>which do you take</p>

<p>assume you’re like the director of the cdc or something so you have responsibility</p>

2

<p>This is from the book Age of Propaganda.</p>

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<p>Plan A. If I were able to secure the survival of 1/3, I would do so. A 2/3 probability that everyone dies is a larger chance than I would be willing to take. The guilt you would feel if you chose B only to have everyone die, as is most likely, would be nearly unbearable knowing that you could have saved 200. Does that make me pragmatic or just pessimistic?</p>

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<p>Plan A. B is way too risky.</p>

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<p>wut nooo!!!</p>

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<p>"But suppose the problem was presented in this way instead:</p>

<p>If Program A is adopted, 400 people will die.</p>

<p>If Program B is adopted, there is a one third probability that nobody will die and a two thirds probability that 600 people will die. </p>

<p>Which program would you now favor?"</p>

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<p>^ how many people are there total? The way you phrase it now sounds like the population is made up of more than 600 ppl…and therefore it sounds like now B is presented more favorably than it was in the original scenario</p>