So it’s 3% stopping transmission for homemade masks. 58% for surgical masks worn correctly and 95 % for N95. Of course adding filters and such helps the homemade masks. I read somewhere that putting something like panty hose around the homemade masks helps hold it to the face better and actually increases the homemade masks significantly. Great look for college students trying to meet other college students… Lol
@ucbalumnus – yes, they’d have to adjust. My guess is no more than 20% surge, though? Would vary a lot. Campuses where only first-years live on campus would particularly have to be innovative. Maybe the university takes over an apartment building or two for a year for first years. Some may not get all the courses they want first year but I think they could adjust. Add sections, add summer school options, etc.
Not sure I understand the distinction between grocery store and college dorm…a super spreader could be at either. Depending on their relative population size/visits, a super spreader in a supermarket could infect far more people than in a dorm of 70 people, for example. Yes, some dorms have more than 70 people, but many are at that size or smaller.
While I agree the CDC has made missteps, I think their ‘close contact’ definition is common.
For example, New Zealand dept of health uses the same definition: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-novel-coronavirus-health-advice-general-public/contact-tracing-covid-19
I still believe that treatments - along with better, more solid and refined data on risk factors - will be the way forward in the near term. A little hope, just one of the many options being studied:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3580524
This study included >700 treated patients and >700 controls. There are multiple trials of ivermectin underway (some in other countries and some in combination with other drugs). It’s a relatively inexpensive and widely available drug.
Just intuitively, my sense is that in hard-hit areas, the horse is already out of the barn, too late for constant testing of asymptomatic students and contact tracing on college campuses.
Grocery stores are not “super spreading” venues. It’s pretty unlikely you will catch the virus from not wiping down your groceries or from it “lingering in the air”. Advice is all over the place because so much is unknown at the moment and therefore the precautionary principle is invoked. But spread via sputum appears to be an important factor.
This is a useful summary of the types of super spreading events that have been seen in practice:
https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/
And note that it’s the type of interaction that is critical to spread, it doesn’t appear to be that a particular subset of infected people are some sort of super shedders of the virus wherever they go.
Colleges students are known to the college and can be easily traced. S/he is less likely to be a super spreader if the only source of her/his infection is on campus. S/he wouldn’t have visited places, if any, outside the campus, unlike a super spreader in a grocery store.
Regarding an extra large 2021 entry class…
In majors with sequenced prerequisites, not getting the needed course first semester could mean extra semesters or summers to graduation.
Adding sections may not be so easy. When the extra large class is in senior year, it may need more sections of specialized upper level courses that faculty are less interchangeable in teaching.
There is one RCT with a non-medical cloth mask arm (not studied with covid-19). Conclusion: high rates of infection with cloth masks and authors caution against the use of cloth masks.
https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/5/4/e006577
When you add in the fact that most non-medical cloth mask wearers are not wearing it properly, touch it often, lift it up and down to talk, and do not put it on and take it off in the proper order, I doubt in practice there is any decrease in infection rate.
^While a homemade cloth masks without a good filtering layer does very little for the wearer, it does trap the majority of any viruses from the wearer inside the covering and on the outer surface of the covering. The few that penetrated the mask and escape into the air also travel much shorter distances.
@Mwfan1921 Exactly. Since I started wearing a mask, I swear I feel less safe. I can’t help but touch it and I was getting really good at NOT touching my face when I wasn’t wearing a mask. Plus, I’m hyper aware of everyone else’s masks and they are a joke. Big gaps on the sides and lots of people touching them to rearrange them or even take them off when they talk to someone at the deli counter, etc. I, for one, hope this mask requirement goes away. I don’t think D21 will be able to wear a mask for seven hours of school. She thinks there’d be no way to concentrate. Some say US residents just aren’t used to them but I just don’t see that happening.
I haven’t heard any details about when college kids would have to wear masks yet. I guess it’s too early for that. I really hope it’s not very often.
Healthcare workers have fitted PPE’s and are well trained in how fit and use the equipment. They also have experience with proper cleaning and disposal yet they’re still exposed and getting sick. How do you think 50k 18-21 year-olds on a campus will fair with only surgical masks (at best)?
My wife had a 2 hour fitting/pre last week for PPE’s. It can be a pain. It’s very tough to work and breath all day with a mask. I’ve seen way too many people in public that have no idea what to do with a mask. They lift them up to talk or eat. It’s kind of funny except it isn’t.
Agree with all of this! I love the people wearing the bandannas, pennant style with the point hanging down off the chin…basically the whole bottom is open!
@chmcnm ok but back up and remember that a LOT of people are not social distancing and also not getting sick. Lots of teenagers here (not mine!) are having parties with way over 10 people and they aren’t getting sick (with symptoms anyway). Believe me, we would know it if a teenager came down with the virus in our town since there’s all kinds of talk about who is social distancing and who is not and shaming those who are not, etc.
And what about places like Oregon State has 4000 kids on campus. UCSD has 5000. I assume they are following some rules but maybe not others and of course they aren’t in class. There was a poster (on this thread?) who said they went to go grab their son’s stuff out of the dorm and the off campus houses were swarming with kids hanging out. No big rise in the virus at that campus …or at least it’s not some big story that any of us have heard.
I’m not saying we should all drop masks and go to the mall. Our family has been pretty strict and following Illinos’ rules. But I am starting to wonder just a little bit which of the rules make a difference and which ones are just throwing darts at the problem.
Dont forget that some Sophmores, Juniors and Seniors might also want to take a gap year.
Read yesterday that UConn engineering school is offering 65% discount on master’s degrees to 2020 grads.
Yes. My wife was just talking her friend with a daughter who’s a junior at U Miami. She’s probably going to take a GAP year.
@melvin in many places they might be made up for by the kids who would be abroad but won’t, no?
So yes Agee with the above but thought someone asked. Funny on Michigan’s Mden site you can get 3 branded masks for $22.00. With room for 2.5 filters. Part of proceed goes to the hospital fund.
Even though I am a doctor and agree with the above. I still wear my masks when needed. All stores require it now anyway. I don’t use it when walking the dog but have it just incase I decide to go in somewhere to get coffee etc.
Also Michigan was supposed to knock down about 350 people worth of apartments on North campus.
Looks like that is on hold. They were going to build down new dorms. The guy said they are still discussing but seems like they will be used for next year. These are all singles /doubles.
So one thing that I don’t think as discussed is parent weekend. It is timed on purpose to be around 7 weeks. This is when kids sorts “need” to see parents etc. There is some studies about this that it helps kids adjust especially the ones that need this. Also signs of kids getting into trouble like drinking etc happen around this time. Can’t find the article. So what happens if this event doesn’t happen?
That’s my entire point.
Masks help IF you use them properly. Most people don’t. Social distancing works IF you follow the rules. How many students will comply or realistically how many can comply when you cram thousands of students on a campus and dorms? Logistical nightmare. Stay 6 feet apart at all times with 20K kids on a 50 acre campus…not mathematically possible. Testing might help IF you have enough tests and they’re accurate and the kids comply.
It’s the same example as safe sex. Kids know about it but there’s always some who don’t follow the practice. All it takes are a few.
You might know who gets sick in your neighborhood but you won’t know who’s a carrier if they’re asymptmatic. By then it’s too late.
If kids are to get back on campus I think it will be some type of combination of a little testing if possible, as much social distancing as possible, better hygiene, and roping off campus as much as possible. But most of all it will be an acceptance of risk with a dose of hoping for the best.