Optimists, rejoice! Go read the breaking news on Moderna’s vaccine trial. Amazing news. The low and medium dose human trial for dosing/safety went beautifully. All 8 humans generated as much/more antibody compared to actual recovered patients, with no safety issues except one person had redness in their arm after. Their large scale clinical trial is set for July, with actual FDA approval truly expected before end of year if things continue to go well. They are massively ramping up production now. The already complete animal studies showed that after the mice were vaccinated and later exposed to the virus, none got sick, exceptionally effective. Everyone needs to send all positive thoughts that this works and is as good as it seems (and huge thanks to those 8 volunteers). Pessimists: of course things could go off-course. But this is a huge breakthrough, let’s all hope for the best.
I skipped forward past a lot of the replies here, but in one of the parents fb group for one of my kids colleges, it was asked “would you send your kid back/would your kid go back”. Out of 40 responses so far, only one or two have said no.
K-12 may actually have a harder time going back then one thinks. Based on my teacher friends, many have pre-existing conditions and likely will not feel safe to return to classroom until there is a treatment or a vaccine. I think here in US there are many teachers like this. How they survive all the other crud throughout the school year, I guess they feel like it would not kill them. So the argument about professors and other staff at colleges and K-12 is all the same. But I wonder why the first thing countries in Europe and other parts of the world are re opening are the schools. Somehow they have found a way (see Denmark/Israel/AustriaGermany). They are starting with the elementary age and HS Seniors in some cases. Anything I have read, I dont see where the teachers are protesting, moreso some parents who are trepid.
Summer day camp and daycares reopening will be the first way to tell how it goes.
I’m a parent of a college student and if his school opens in the fall it is not guaranteed he will go.
We’ve discussed it. If the landscape is boxed lunches, masks all day, compressed schedules and/or a multitude of changes we can’t even imagine at this point in a game, he would go online to save on room and board. For some, that isn’t pocket change. Ultimately, it is his choice, but not every kid has the same perspective.
In my area, I know many people who would make this decision.
From U of SC:
…Two major changes…first, there will be no Fall Break and second, we will conclude face-to-face instruction at Thanksgiving Break.
Also…Labor Day and Election Day will be Remote Class Days - classes will be held online and asynchronous for all classes. All student learning after T-day including finals will be done online.
Justification:
"Canceling Fall Break — the public health risks associated with thousands of students and faculty returning to campus after Fall Break travels could be significant for the campus and Columbia communities and could jeopardize the continuation of the semester.
“Remote learning following Thanksgiving Break — our best current modelling predicts a spike in cases of COVID-19 at the beginning of December, which also will likely coincide with traditional flu season.”
Model predictions are all over the place. Some schools (e.g. Stanford and Harvey Mudd) are considering delaying the start of their fall terms.
I am hopeful for a vaccine, but how many people do you think will sign up to receive a vaccine that launches without the normal years of safety data generally required for vaccines? I am pro-vaccine but will think really hard about getting this one.
Go take a look at the vaccine misfires we have had just in this country over the last century…most of those were from vaccines that launched with full data sets.
Not sure how colleges or schools or workplaces will fare if they require a vaccine, studied for only 6 months or 9 months or even two years, when a vaccine requires more much data to prove safety, under normal circumstances. If there ultimately turns out to be safety issue, imagine the lawsuits then.
I know we aren’t under normal circumstances, but that doesn’t mean we need to effectively enter a vaccine clinical trial, which we will be if a vaccine is available this fall, or next year, or in 2022.
MWFan, all good points. But first I believe everyone can take a moment to be excited to see fantastically great news on these Phase 1 trial results. Things can absolutely go south (the Oxford trial that had seemed encouraging failed this weekend, just as an example of something encouraging that didn’t pan out), but there is no reason to deprive ourselves of a little more hope this morning. So far, so good. Cross your fingers and toes, people!!
There were only 8 people in the trial so far. Large scale trial is starting soon.
As for whether people will sign up. First of all, I’m incredulous and amazed that the 8 signed up for Phase 1—amazing. Of course some portion of people will be hesitant, perhaps a very large portion. I would expect people who feel the least safe now (older, obese, diabetes, high blood pressure, immune compromised) may be closer to the front of the line. I mean if those people have sequestered themselves for 9 months at that point and are absolutely miserable, i would not be shocked to see a decent portion of people sign up. Also 9 months from now, more people may have natural immunity. Based on the antibody tests, who knows, maybe somewhere between 2%-10% of people in the US have already been exposed in the past 3 months. So 7 months from now, we may have 6%-30% of the population already having their own immunity. If another X% get vaccinated, that just helps. Apparently we need 60%-70% to reach true herd immunity and end this outbreak, but the more people who are immune the better.
Anyway, only time will tell. We need the next phase, and to take everything step by step. I wouldn’t bet my life on this working perfectly, but today I absolutely choose to have an extra skip in my step!!
Some groups of people can not safely take any vaccines, e.g., immunocomprised (cancer, auto-immune diseases, transplants, HIV, etc.), elderly, and babies…and this vaccine won’t be any different.
And yes, I agree with the part about celebrating Moderna’s success so far. I am optimistic that a vaccine will at some point be available.
MWfan, you are right, of course. I’m just too happy to think straight. I guess my overall point is that some people are more or less risk averse. I am sure there will be some people who get vaccinated early, and others will wait. Not sure what portion of people fall into which camp. But we all benefit as more get vaccinated, whatever the percent. I agree, it’s hard to see it mandated to be on-campus in such a short time. Will be interesting to watch!
Maybe in luxury class residential colleges. Most college students attend and work hard at colleges that they commute to and then go home to work hard some more (either school work or paid work), rather than playing hard at college.
Other countries are opening their schools first because that is what the leading doctors say to do-that the young can be exposed to this first as they are at the least risk. I am thrilled there is positive vaccine news, but for college age kids, it may be less risky to get COVID than to get a new vaccine shot.
Probably those at the highest risk of the virus itself. For example, a dentist or dental hygienist who is older and has pre-existing risk-increasing conditions but is not ready to retire from his/her profession may be more likely to want it than someone who lives as a hermit in a sparsely populated area.
I.e. if a new vaccine is seen as risky, people will weigh it against the risk of the disease when choosing whether to get it. Remember that some older vaccines, like the historical smallpox vaccine, would probably be considered not safe enough today, but smallpox was feared enough that people got it anyway (and before vaccination, there was the more dangerous practice of variolation using small doses of actual smallpox).
It hasn’t been formally announced and I have no specifics, but I was reading the consolidated budget for DS19’s school and it was mentioned that they will be offering a student tuition and fees payment deferral program in the fall.
As I understand it, agreeing to be in the vaccine trial also guarantees you top care if you get the virus. I would already volunteer for that.
@EmptyNestSoon2 thank you so much for that update on the vaccine trial!!
Agree with this and the small pox example (although small pox has a 30% fatality rate), but some pre-existing conditions will be contraindications for getting any covid-19 vaccine.
I don’t know the protocols of any of the ongoing vaccine trials, but generally there will be an included age range, and excluded conditions for patients who enroll in the trials.
So when the vaccine (it’s the same for drugs) launches, vaccine/drug use would be considered ‘off-label’ (not FDA approved) in groups excluded from the clinical trials.
Yes the US is a harsh (and discriminatory) society. The focus on individualism and the winner take all mentality is hugely different to Europe. Unfortunately we aren’t going to be able to solve that easily (look at the debate over healthcare in the last decade), because a significant proportion of the population feel that changing those elements would also take away things they do want to keep. So sadly a lot more people are going to suffer economically here than in Sweden. Why then is Sweden choosing a different path that trades off more deaths for a (hopefully) better economy?
What also comes with the US attitude is a huge amount of irrationality about death (perhaps oddly for a relatively religious country). Take past controversies about “death panels” (ie cost based discussions about treatment efficacy). In the current crisis the utter panic about the prospect of triage (deciding who would get a ventilator if supplies were limited) was another example. One of the biggest factors in the high cost of US healthcare is that a higher proportion of spending is on end of life (mostly futile) treatment than any other country.
That fear of death makes finding a compromise very difficult. But a compromise will have to be found.
Agreed. Many of the people dying in nursing homes here from COVID would not have been kept alive through medically intrusive means in other places. Most other countries prioritize a rational and comfortable end of life rather than just maximizing the number of painful days.
@Twoin18 wrote:
Studies have shown that the Swedes have a much higher level of trust in their government than Americans do. Stands to reason that if they get sick or lose their job and don’t have to worry about where their next meal is going to come from, they’d be willing to take greater risks during a pandemic.
One of the biggest differences in outcomes is going to be how well different states protected their care homes. Some states like New York created a bigger disaster by requiring infected patients be sent back to care homes. Other states like Washington (and it seems Florida) did a much better job of protecting them.
Now spread of infection appears to be most common in the home. I think offsite quarantine of mild cases is going to be the next differentiator in outcomes (another reason I feel pretty positive about what Utah is doing because they have opened hotels and other facilities for this). That will be a major thing for colleges to consider for the fall.