A university president writing in the Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/colleges-that-reopen-are-making-a-big-mistake/611485/
I agree, but am also glad that he’s linked to the new Weeden preprint. (Her twitter feed tells the story well and briefly.) In short, universities by their nature are wonderful petri dishes. It doesn’t much matter what you try to do once the kids are back. The spread will be rapid and comprehensive.
I’ll be a little surprised if ND goes through with their plan, despite the nod to God, the strong verbal push to thoughts and prayers and the suggestion of an “unexpected” severe outbreak in fall/winter. (It’s expected.)
As parents, you have some decisions to make and some studying up to do, because no amount of saying “I didn’t know X could happen” will reverse the fact that X has happened when your kid’s in the ICU or worse. One of the things that makes pandemics difficult is that it’s a minority of people who have enough background to read the papers and reports and interpret them with any degree of accuracy; the other is the “It isn’t happening to me, therefore it isn’t serious” problem. And because of those I’m dreading the news stories with sobbing parents saying “I thought the testing was going to keep him safe, they said they were doing testing, I don’t understand.”
I cannot stress this strongly enough: End of the day, the university will not look after your child. It will look after itself as best it knows how.
I know that showing people data like Weeden’s, explaining the science at people, will not make them do the smart thing. That’s why Americans still use on average over 10K kWh a year to run their houses and drive over 13000 miles a year, lots of it too fast and too close to other cars, while distracted. It’s why so much engineering essentially goes into idiotproofing, and why vaccines are defaults at children’s checkups. Why the vast majority of Americans are overweight or obese, why many still smoke.
The problem is that there is no idiotproofing engineering that can happen now. All of it is DIY. It’s like overnight every modern safety feature, from airbags to pillars to seatbelts to rearview cameras to drift correction to crumple zones to egg-carton passenger-compartment design to you name it was stripped out of everyone’s car, and people were told: “Just be careful. We’ll give you random bits of info about how to be careful, but honestly physics is hard, so if you want to read up, that’s up to you. Here’s your keys back. Freedom cars!”
I think the biggest lesson so far in this pandemic is: not enough people will cooperate for long enough for public health to be very useful in a pandemic.