Sounds like you have a plan… I feel bad for these kids, their school and travel plans up in the air… so much uncertainty for them – and mom & dad!
I know some other colleges are considering this as well. It would allow flexibility in that the school could plan to do the first module on-line and the second on campus or switch to having the first semester fully on line if things deteriorate in the fall.
@roycroftmom I read a news story today that says Texas ranks 48 out of 50 in terms of per capita corona virus testing. Maybe that is attributed in part by a slower start, but certainly not a good number overall.
If you sue somebody, isn’t up to you to prove they were negligent, and that they knew, or should have known a particular thing but didn’t act on it? How would they prove that colleges should have seen mandatory closures coming when the US President was telling states it wasn’t a problem and the virus was going to disappear “like a miracle”? I wouldn’t bet on winning that case.
If you deposit for this fall knowing that colleges don’t know what the situation will be in September, that’s on you. If you deposit knowing a particular college won’t approve a deferral or gap year, you may not like it but I don’t see how that’s grounds for a lawsuit.
@wisteria100 and @roycroftmom - I am skeptical of any “infection rate” data available right now. Three separate studies (Stanford, USC and NY) have shown potential infection rates 50 - 80 times higher than current reported numbers. I know in California, the last three days have seen a noticeable increase in positive tests. Why? In part because they changed the criteria for who should be tested. So, more people are being tested equals more positive tests. Definitely a moving target in both directions. My point - the published “positive cases” are a direct function of who is allowed to be tested in the specific state or county, not indicative of overall population infection rates. When the current pandemonium calms down, hopefully we will have some solid numbers to help the experts make sound decisions.
@usma87 It’s not 50-80 times higher than current reported numbers, it’s 50-80 times higher than our previous estimates.
Yes, current numbers leave too much uncertainty to make well informed decisions (although some people try to fit or assume best or worst case scenarios from the current numbers to make their own decisions). The colleges (and others) are presumably waiting for better quality data to make better informed decisions and announcements that are more specific than “we are planning for X, Y, and Z, but have not decided yet which one to implement”.
@ChemAM - thank you for the correction. I was hoping to make the point that current positive case numbers do not equate to infection rate or mortality rates. With the increase in estimated cases, each of those rates drop significantly.
Colleges can’t force you to return, and most will readmit students who apply within a year or a semester. However, they still control the FA. Both my kids had merit scholarships that were good for 8 consecutive semesters. The school had to approve any leaves or the merit aid would be lost. One of my kids wanted to do the Disney College program. She thought she had it approved but I think what was really approved was that she could return to the school without any problem. The FA office gave her a hard time and wouldn’t reinstate her merit aid. I spent a long time on the phone and they finally did reinstate. It wasn’t really a lot of money put it was to her.
The leaves were generally approved for military, religious missions, coops and internships, but not approved for things like personal travel or taking classes at another school (unless through an approved swap).
The current testing has such a high rate of false negatives, I am not sure how useful it even is. The most critical data I have seen is how many are sick enough to be hospitalized, and what is their age distribution. Those who can remain at home and get better aren’t that worrisome, and if the age range is such that 80 or 90% of the deaths are over age 80, that tempers anxiety as well. Still very sad,of course. I don’t understand why all communities don’t publish this information.
@roycroftmom If the test has such a high rate of false negatives and it is still predicting this many people have antibodies, the death rate/hospitalization rate is so low I think there is virtually no chance we won’t be back to college by fall. Dare I say it, we may not even need social distancing protocols in fall.
I feel like you could be failing to understand the math.
NY numbers are 10 times higher than the total number of those that tested positive. It’s 4 times as many where I live. Unlike one of the CA studies where people volunteered via Facebook (what kind of model is that??), the NY was based on random sample of people shopping supermarkets and other big stores.
I would also argue that the large NY numbers (275, 000 positive cases) are more than just a function of who can get tested.
Wesleyan sent out an email late this afternoon stating that if they can’t resume on campus classes this fall, all incoming freshman will be offered an automatic deferral to the spring and deferral to fall 2021 upon request. Welcome options for those students considering Wesleyan, and I hope other schools will announce similar policies before the May 1st deadline.
I have been a teacher for 30 years. Fifteen years ago the kindergarten taught a letter a week. Now they teach a letter a day. Lots of kids can’t keep up, and are pulled out for extra help. Next year, perhaps they will begin to meet children where they are.
University of Nebraska is the first college to confirm they will be resuming face-to-face instruction in the fall.
If lots of students defer until fall 2021, that will make admission to Wesleyan more difficult for the next cohort of college applicants, unless lots of them decide not to bother applying there.
@ucbalumnus I bet most students would opt to just defer for a semester, rather than a year, if given the option (which they will, in the case of Wesleyan).
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There is no long term data on COVID-19, so we do not know yet whether antibodies provide immunity and, if so, for how long.
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Unlike the flu, there is no vaccine for COVID-19. Even if the death rate/hospitalization rate is exactly the same as the flu (which of course we don’t yet know), COVID-19 is much more contagious. So if far more people get COVID-19, then 0.1% of a much higher number means a much higher # of deaths. That’s bad enough! But then add in the higher number of hospitalizations, and hospitals become overwhelmed.
So, it’s not as simple as saying…more people have antibodies, so the death/hospitalization rate is probably low, so we’re good.
If you have research that disputes the above, I’d love to see it.
@momzilla2D What I meant is if that many people have antibodies (regardless of how long they last), then many people have got it but are asymptomatic, which would make the death rate and hospitalization rate lower. Also, SARS is another type of coronavirus, and antibodies for that last roughly 10 years, so I read somewhere that means it is highly unlikely that antibodies for COVID-19 last less than at least a few years.
Also, when I said social distancing may not be necessary in fall, I meant (but forgot to put) if we make good progress with regard to treatments.