<p>Yup. Agreed.</p>
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<p>I’m not second-guessing them here. And I still don’t know what the probability of recovering with only re-hydration treatment–maybe 30% if the mortality rate is 70%? I am guessing most people in Africa don’t get plasma transfusions at all from survivors. The lower the probability of recovering without drug treatment, the more ethical it is to roll the dice with an unproven drug treatment.</p>
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<p>No, I’m not. I’m just assuming that people will be monitored more closely if they are under quarantine, and there will be less of a delay between symptoms and treatment. If someone is under quarantine and they come down with a small fever, my guess is that they would test them for the virus. </p>
<p>And I still don’t know what the probability of recovering with only re-hydration treatment–maybe 30% if the mortality rate is 70%? "</p>
<p>I would guess it would be more than 30%. The African hospitals are simply overwhelmed to do what a western hospital can do. NEJM has an article that is directly related to the topic:</p>
<p><a href=“http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1411310?query=featured_ebola”>http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1411310?query=featured_ebola</a></p>
<p>Yes, I have seen reports that the WHO said it would be ethical to administer the unproven treatments that have shown favorable safety profile in humans.</p>
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<p>And that is exactly what happened with Dr. Spencer. He monitored himself closely, just as you suggest, by taking his temp twice daily. As soon as he had a small fever, he called the authorities, just as you suggest. The time between symptoms (the first reading of a small fever) and hospitalization was not delayed, just as you suggest (he reported the fever mid-morning, and was in the hospital by mid-afternoon). And, just as you suggest, they tested him for the virus as soon as he got there.</p>
<p>Please remember that Dr. Spencer was not contagious before the fever. He was not contagious at the bowling alley, or anywhere else he went before the fever. Therefore, I see no reason to have quarantined him.</p>
<p>sally, thanks for the video #2367. Indeed there are some really good people in the world</p>
<p>OK, so suppose I’m a trained nurse. And suppose (contrary to fact) I’m an exceptionally good person. I’m willing to put my life on the line to go treat sick people in Africa for six weeks. </p>
<p>Now you’re telling me it’s going to be NINE weeks before I can get back to my life, because ill-informed people are worried that they’d catch Ebola from me even when I’m not contagious? You’re telling me when I get back home, the yahoos at Newark Airport are going to stick me in a locked room for four hours?</p>
<p>You’re asking a lot of goodness out of people who have already gone so far above and beyond that it’s almost unfathomable.</p>
<p>A trained nurse agrees with you, Fang. Kaci Hickox, the nurse who’s being detained – sorry, quarantined – in New Jersey, has already written about her experience. I quoted and linked it above, but I wanted to specifically quote the end of the piece:</p>
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<p>(Emphasis mine.)</p>
<p><a href=“http://www.dallasnews.com/ebola/headlines/20141025-uta-grad-isolated-at-new-jersey-hospital-as-part-of-ebola-quarantine.ece”>http://www.dallasnews.com/ebola/headlines/20141025-uta-grad-isolated-at-new-jersey-hospital-as-part-of-ebola-quarantine.ece</a></p>
<p>BTW, Ms. Hickox is negative for ebola as she begins her 21-day sentence – sorry, quarantine.</p>
<p>Maybe this courageous and articulate young woman can spend the next three weeks educating the outside world – sorry, educating New York and New Jersey – about how ebola infection actually happens.</p>
<p>And I’m still wondering about the doctor son of the Liberian president. If he doesn’t see fit to help his native country, it’s asking a lot for others to consider going there to risk their lives. </p>
<p>I also wish DWB/MSF was more honest about the information about how many HCWs had died. It doesn’t encourage optimism (or donations) when an organizations isn’t upfront about things. </p>
<p>As far as NY handling ebola so much better than TX, from the article referenced by emilybee: “It is too soon to tell whether the response to Dr. Spencer’s infection will continue as smoothly as it began.” So New Yorkers shouldn’t get too enthusiastic about those self back-pats.</p>
<p>And (most importantly): </p>
<p>“We are all much smarter now,” said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious-disease specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville. “We have all learned from the Dallas episode.”</p>
<p>“Not a good move, NY and NJ.”</p>
<p>Appalling. And completely unnecessary. Both these governors are running for something and have been reacting to the news frenzy over recent events and the public’s reaction to these events. They had a joint conference a few weeks ago announcing a big new & immediate homeland security initiative - all because of ISIS/beheadings, etc. </p>
<p>It looks good and sounds good to the public (which is the whole point of it) but none of it is well thought out and there is no money for these things. </p>
<p>NJ did that. Not NY.</p>
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<p>CDC got much smarter, too. With Dallas they were practically making up protocols as it was being adapted. With NY, they were there on the spot within hours knowing what to do this time. And the patient. They had to wait for a few hour to get anyone sign to admit Duncan to the hospital in his second visit. Dr Spencer said Ebola Duncan whispered Liberia.</p>
<p>Besides, Duncan’s relatives were making noise from day one. Our impression of how Dallas handled the first case may mostly come from their version of events.</p>
<p>Huh?</p>
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<p>??? The nurse was traveling to NY from NJ. The decision was made in consultation with NY. I think it’s the right decision. Can you imagine another HCW with a high fever turning up the day after Dr Spencer? I know it was due to a flawed measurement/thermometer. How much this lass thermometer cost?</p>
<p>“NJ did that. Not NY.”</p>
<p>Newark, JFK & LaGuardia airports are under the control of the Port Authority of NY & NJ. </p>
<p>yes, emilybee, but the only one so far to mistreat a returning nurse is NJ. Maybe the others will learn from this abusive incident.</p>
<p>igloo,
you added to you post after my query. Still not getting your point. Yes Dallas hospital admits they made mistakes. Whats your point?</p>
<p>Kaci Hickok is being held in an isolation tent in paper scrubs with no access to books, television or anything normal. This is beyond appalling. </p>
<p>Texas and New York can let people stay in homes, but New Jersey has to treat them like criminals? i’m embarrassed.</p>
<p>"Our impression of how Dallas handled the first case may mostly come from their version of events. "</p>
<p>No. We have the hospital records which showed exactly what happened. </p>
<p>“yes, emilybee, but the only ons so far to mistreat a returning nurse is NJ. Maybe the others will learn form this abusive incident.”</p>
<p>Yes, because the airport was Newark so it happened in NJ, but the operation is run by the Port Authority. </p>