Senior Grades and Early Decision

To keep a long story short, my life fell apart Sophomore year and I spent Junior year piecing it all back together. This resulted in a 3.11 UW GPA both semesters of my Sophomore year. As a Junior I received a 3.83 and a 3.67. The drop is due to track and needing about 30hrs of volunteer service for NHS and NSSHS.
All told, I have a 3.5 GPA, leaving me just above the top third of my class.
This does not portray my capabilities, but I’m afraid it will bottleneck my achievements. I have a 34 ACT and two 5’s on AP Exams (the only 2 I was offered). I played 2 sports (each for 2 years), and have entered 2 honors societies. I paid for trying to juggle academics and athletics at a school top-notch in both, while my life was in shambles.
For a little background, I love learning in general (that sounds nerdy; it is.). I have used this summer so far to read nearly 1000 pages of classics, mostly satires. I never struggled with material and have done best when challenged, my highest grades of the last 2 years being AP histories.

With that background, I finally have landed in a stable place in my life and have launched the most ambitious (re: foolhardy) schedule my counselor has ever seen. XDWith one AP science, one AP language, one AP social science, and another AP history, I have what equates to a first-year’s college “overload” schedule.
It is common knowledge, or a great myth, here that colleges accept more of their ED pool than their RD pool because it shows a vested interest. With the mediocrity of my class rank, is it worth applying ED at a stretch school rather than waiting to apply RD and having all of these AP classes weigh in? Should I get B+'s and higher in all these, I would raise my weighted GPA at the very least, and possibly my UW GPA significantly, while proving beyond doubt that I can handle a college schedule.

In short, the question is, do you think that the “bonus” chance of ED admission is worth submitting a subpar application (most of the schools average GPA is 3.7-3.9, top 10%, ACT at 30-32) or will my first semester senior grades truly be taken into account?

One of the best reasons to eschew ED or EA is when students want their 7th semester (1st semester Sr year) to be included in their RD applications. EA or ED will not give you that benefit.

Thanks, it seemed to me that I should just go RD everywhere then, but wanted to be sure that I wasn’t making a mistake by skipping the ED for my first choice.
I assume then, that ED’s higher acceptance rates are due to better applicants rather than any difference in selectivity.