Should I apply ED to Uchicago, Stanford, Duke or caltech?

I’m an international final year student in Pakistan and intend to major in theoretical physics at a US university. I am from a financially weak family and will be requiring full financial aid.
I have to decide between Uchicago, stanford, duke and Caltech for E.D. I know you’re supposed to apply ED to your top school but I dont want to overestimate my chances and essentially waste E.D. Which of these universities will be the most suitable for E.D.?

IGCSE: 7a*s, 1a
2 national distinctions in chemistry and CS. A world distinction in math

A level: 4 a*s predicted in math, further math, chemistry and math

SAT: 800 math/ 760 eng
800 math II
physics to be taken in December

EC’s: very weak due to lack of opportunities here. A couple of internships at local engineering universities

I know my extra curricular’s are extremely weak so caltech seems like a huge longshot right away. None of these universities are need-blind either so there s a varying disadvantage to be considered too.

As you refine your choices for ED and RD applications, note that the U.S.'s most promising physicists originate from a range of undergraduate programs:

That’s the problem with ED the way you want to use it. It comes down to the personal risk YOU want to take. That you are international and need a full ride— you want the college to PAY you to come here makes it more challenging. Your best bet statistically is to pick a school that would want you the mostX with the lowest selectivity rate. It’s still a long shot, understand.

Stanford and Caltech have Early Action (which is non-binding), not Early Decision. You can also apply to an Early Decision university if you apply Early Action to Caltech, but Stanford does not allow you to apply EA or ED to any other private colleges.

If you want to maximize your chances of getting into at least one of these four through early admissions, your best bet is to apply to Chicago ED & Caltech EA or Duke ED & Caltech EA.

Note that Chicago has a second round of Early Decision in January, so if you apply somewhere else through Early Decision and are rejected in December, you can apply ED II to Chicago.

With respect to your interest in studying physics, three of your listed schools have produced Apker recipients: Caltech, with four winners, and UChicago and Stanford, with three each.