<p>I’ve been looking at the [threads](<a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/duke-university/637089-regular-decision-apps-take-look.html”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/duke-university/637089-regular-decision-apps-take-look.html</a>) in which selective colleges report [increases](<a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/dartmouth-college/637212-record-number-apps.html”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/dartmouth-college/637212-record-number-apps.html</a>) in the numbers of applicants, and wondering what this means in terms of the difficulty of admission this year. There are three possibilities:</p>
<p>(1) An increase in the number of highly qualified applicants (thus harder)
(2) No change in the number of highly qualified applicants, rather an increase in less qualified applicants (not harder)
(3) Applicants are not increased, the same number are just applying to more colleges (not harder).</p>
<p>The only way to compare applicant pools between years is the SAT. Grades can’t be used, for there is always a top 10% of a HS class.</p>
<p>So, I looked at the College Board data for [2003[/url</a>], [url=<a href=“College Board - SAT, AP, College Search and Admission Tools”>College Board - SAT, AP, College Search and Admission Tools]2006[/url</a>], [url=<a href=“College Board - SAT, AP, College Search and Admission Tools”>College Board - SAT, AP, College Search and Admission Tools]2007[/url</a>], and [url=<a href=“http://professionals.collegeboard.com/profdownload/Total_Group_Report.pdf]2008[/url”>Higher Education Professionals | College Board]2008[/url</a>]. I made a table (which I don’t think I can post on this site, so I posted it on a blog site [url=<a href=“http://plutarch01.■■■■■■■■■■■■■/]here[/url”>http://plutarch01.■■■■■■■■■■■■■/]here[/url</a>]. ) The findings:</p>
<p>—The number of 750-800 Critical Reading scores have been stable every year. From 2003 to 2008, there was a slight decrease, from 25,114 to 24,569.</p>
<p>—The number of 750-800 Writing scores from 2006 to 2008 have increased 26%, from 17,510 to 22,035.</p>
<p>—The number of 750-800 Math scores from 2006-2008 have increased 23.4%, from 32,800 to 40,466. In 2003 there were 30,440, a 32.9% increase.</p>
<p>So what does this mean? The highly qualifed applicant pool, as measured by the composite CR/M/W SAT, has become larger in the last several years. This increase has been entirely in the Math and Writing sections.</p>
<p>According to Hernandez book [url=<a href=“http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0446674060/redirect-home/aisforadmisherna]A”>http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0446674060/redirect-home/aisforadmisherna]A</a> Is for Admission (1999)](<a href=“College Board - SAT, AP, College Search and Admission Tools”>College Board - SAT, AP, College Search and Admission Tools), a top CR score has always been more highly valued than Math. With Math and W score inflation in recent years, the stable numbers of high CR scores must have further increased CR’s relative importance, as Adcoms are relatively awash in applications with high M and W scores, but a high CR score today is just as rare as it was in 2003.</p>