<p>Well, this seems to be ALL the rage these days. China the mighty. China the economically strong. China the fast growing.</p>
<p>But how much truth is there in the future of the uber-powerful China?</p>
<p>Anyway, I figure that enough topics (Japan, Korea, etc.) spill over into here that this could be an interesting enough thread. And hey! There’s not that much fuel for partisan fire…I hope.</p>
<p>CITATION X wrote in the John Kerry thread,</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Who said anything about nuclear war? Why would the US bother engaging in a nuclear war with the DPRK when it really doesn’t have to? Besides, the first rule of nuclear weapons is “don’t use nuclear weapons.”</p>
<p>What I think you’re ignoring, CITATION, is that nobody in their right mind wants to see the end of the DPRK. Not even South Korea.</p>
<p>China’s GDP growth over the past 10 years has been 9% annually, mcuh faster than ours. Although even assuming they could keep it up, it would take them 20 years to pass us in total.</p>
<p>They are fast becoming a major competitor with the U.S. for natural resournces. As their middle-class grows, they are going to consume even more. That could have serious economic and ecological consequences for us.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>True. But I also think that a lot of the “China becomes #1!” calls are a bit overblown. A lot of people remain blissfully unaware of the many problems that may hold back the so-called future superpower.</p>
<p>Care to discuss them?</p>
<p>For one, the increasing growth of crony capitalism. Also, [the</a> large non-performing loan issue.](<a href=“http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/glucksman/docs/Xu_2005.pdf]the”>http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/glucksman/docs/Xu_2005.pdf) NPLs, in some estimates, are more than $600b. </p>
<p>Both of these, if they are not taken into account by the CCP or another body, could threaten PRC economic growth.</p>