<p>BCEagle - yes, for the jobs that are instate. We’re doing one project located in Puerto Rico and another in Texas (I have a cousin there who is a structural engineer, also, and I’m helping him out). I think contractors up here are feeling encouraged. We just got a call from a post-and-beam builder for a small project - we haven’t heard from him in three or four years.</p>
<p>Likely it is the steep rise in gas prices that is causing people to think they aren’t better off, and if you have to drive for a living or have a significant commute, you aren’t better off. </p>
<p>Home prices are still low here if people are looking to make a little profit on their home. My neighbor’s home finally sold after nearly six months on the market, but after owning the home for 20 years, he sold it for what he paid for it. </p>
<p>But California’s economy and business environment is worse than in most other states.</p>
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<p>The recession was a good wake-up call to trim expenses and that certainly included energy. In the Northeast, those that heated with Natural Gas felt like they had hit the jackpot. Not only were temperatures unseasonably warm this winter, but natural gas prices cratered so fuel was cheap and there wasn’t anywhere near as much needed. I do not know what happened with heating oil prices - they probably track unleaded/crude - but less was needed this season. So those in the colder parts of the country should have had some relief on energy.</p>
<p>There are a lot of fuel-efficient choices for vehicles today and going to one of them could have moderated rising gasoline prices.</p>
<p>The reports that I see continue to indicate a lot of supply for gasoline in general - that’s due to weakened economic demand and this is one reason why we are importing less oil. Refiners have been cutting production in response to weak demand and that may be put in a top for gasoline at some point.</p>
<p>I am doing twice as much driving as I normally do from January to this May. Gasoline prices do not bother me at all.</p>
<p>Just had a look at the index charts. We broke out from consolidations in the three indexes today. Many wait for a three-day confirmation but the upside targets that I see are 14,000, 3,400 and 1,480.</p>
<p>[Fed</a> notes job gains but will keep interest rates near zero - The Washington Post](<a href=“http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/fed-notes-job-gains-but-will-keep-interest-rates-near-zero/2012/03/13/gIQApVXx9R_story.html]Fed”>http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/fed-notes-job-gains-but-will-keep-interest-rates-near-zero/2012/03/13/gIQApVXx9R_story.html)</p>
<p>I find it amazing that Bernanke said he would keep rates near zero untill late 2014… At the earliest…</p>
<p>Maybe the Dow…will be at 20,000…by then…but a cup of coffee will be 5 bucks…</p>
<p>I’m kidding…partially…:)</p>
<p>I think this is a very good explanation of what is going on…from one of the horse’s mouth…</p>
<p>[Low</a> Interest Rates Have Benefits ?and Costs](<a href=“http://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/itv/articles/?id=2082]Low”>http://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/itv/articles/?id=2082)</p>
<p>So…I see that JP Morgan increased its dividend today…</p>
<p>So JPM gets cheap money…from savers…and then gets to pay some of that money in dividends…</p>
<p>So savers…are making diddly…and they are sibsidizing JPM’s dividend…and then JPM gets to act holier than … </p>
<p>Life is amazing.</p>
<p>Folks should have learned this lesson when Greenspan was around after the internet bubble. Figure out where the hot money is going and park your money there and be prepared to yank it out when the hot money leaves. This is playing out again. Is retail going to get back into the stock market again?</p>
<p>They always have in the past.</p>
<p>Well…if retail is coming back…I hope retail hurries up. :)</p>
<p>It will… someday…</p>
<p>Just look for the parabola.</p>
<p>Definitely can happen…</p>
<p>"You are going to buy the 530 puts back if the stock hits 530? … Which means you are risking more…than 7…</p>
<p>And you can’t sell stock at 530 instead of covering the puts…because then you are going to be short until 565…</p>
<p>In reality…you are risking more than 7"</p>
<p>Huh? My 530 put that I sold is covered by the 565 put that I bought so if it expires below 530, I’ve maximized my bearish put spread profit. When I sell my 500 call at 530, I need to buy back the 600 call (so that I don’t have an uncovered call) that I sold which will be cheaper than when I sold it because it is farther out of the money. I don’t follow your argument, the call and put spreads are independent of each other. My call spread cost 58, my put spread cost 14.1, breakeven = 571.65, max gain/max loss = 4.2 at expiration. Perhaps I’m a bit out of it since I got a couple of vaccinations that have given me a significant headache.</p>
<p>My problem with what is happening on Wall Street now is that it is not investing,it is gambling…kind of like musical chairs, hot money looking for a place to go,but the music is going to stop, and who will be left without a seat? The retail investor, and my guess is that will be the last time that happens…</p>
<p>According to the statistics on money flows, the retail investor isn’t really in equities but more into bond funds. Its going to take a lot for them to be in to the level that the market will be topping out from them rather than due to shocks from Europe etc.</p>
<p>I guess the gurus on cnbc who have been shorting the q’s for a while are getting nervous.</p>
<p>Dstark: If you mean that I end up selling the 500 call before expiration, you’re right that my maximum loss will be greater than what I’ve listed because of time value.</p>
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<p>Until it happens again. Human behavior seems to repeat over and over and over again.</p>
<p>Yes, it is gambling to some extent. Maybe to a large extent. But so is buying a house, getting married, going to college, and having kids. Maybe the stock market is a little more in pure gambling. Though some of these ponies do pay a nice dividend. What are you going to do with interest rates where they are and the Fed trying to flush you into buying things and inflating assets?</p>
<p>Good point - I’ve had this discussion with family members who think that all there is to the stock market is gambling but so is everything else including housing which a lot of people are suddenly discovering. Putting money into cd’s however is not a gamble on an inflation adjusted basis, its a certain loss - no gambling there.</p>
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<p>dstark, have you been to Starbucks lately? I haven’t, but from what my kids tell me, we’re already there.</p>
<p>That’s a fancy cup of coffee with all of the sugar and fat variants. You can get a chilled coffee at McDonalds for $4. They’ve had iced drinks at Dunkin Donuts that go up to $5 for about ten years.</p>
<p>At least you can always get a bottled water for under $2.</p>
<p>I’m usually happy with the local water fountain.</p>
<p>But there was time not long ago,where you could actually invest in a company…Now all they care about is beating the number,which is manipulated BIGTIME…</p>
<p>There are plenty of companies that you can still invest in that pay decent dividends and that continue to grow earnings.</p>
<p>And then there’s that value company that is $568 a share today.</p>
<p>Doct…</p>
<p>So …Appl…goes to 530 and you are stopped out…</p>
<p>You are just going to get out of the whole trade …both spreads?</p>