<p>I’m a little surprised. I’m in NorCal. I don’t see much inventory coming on the market. I thought March was supposed to get the residential real estate market started.</p>
<p>And the inventory I do see…most of it is old listings and overpriced.</p>
<p>A friend told be in Naples, Fla, last year, home prices were crushed last hear. Homes were practically given away.</p>
<p>This year…nothing is on the market.</p>
<p>dstark, doesn’t that bode relatively well for you? Surely someone is looking to move into where you are. If your house is one of the few houses available, won’t that help??</p>
<p>In my neck of the woods, prices are down probably 15% to 20% from the peak – but if things are properly priced, they are moving eventually.</p>
<p>I’m in Southern CA but, since we are considering a home up in Northern CA as well as downsizing to a smaller home in Southern CA, we have a realtor who sends us updates for the Lafayette-Moraga- Orinda- Walnut Creek and Danville areas and, you’re right, very little inventory of new listings. </p>
<p>Southern CA, specifically South Orange County, seems to have more new inventory coming on the market. I’m noticing that short sales are starting to sell quicker now. Money seems to be somewhat more available and banks seem to be wanting to turn these properties quicker-- at least for conforming loans. Higher priced homes needing jumbo loans are still selling slowly. My sense is that many of the equity sellers, in the areas we are interested in moving to, have their properties overpriced. These equity sellers don’t seem to be that motivated to sell their homes at the moment. </p>
<p>Many experts talk of the next big wave of foreclosers in the next year, and I tend to agree, due to the number of short sale list lstings.</p>
<p>OK, I’m willing to demonstrate my ignorance: What’s a short sale??</p>
<p>A short sale is when the mortgage holder allows the home to be sold for less than the amount due on the mortgage.</p>
<p>In my area of Wisconsin, for a 3500-4000 sf beautiful brick house at the price near 800-900K, it usually takes 4-5 yrs to be sold.</p>
<p>^^^ Well, remind me never to buy one of those in the first place . . .</p>
<p>I think it could be good for me that inventory is so light, but…I am also going to be a buyer…and where I am looking nothing is for sale for the first time in 3 years. (I’m not counting the overpriced home for sale I would probably never consider).</p>
<p>Like I said, I am really surprised by the lack of inventory. I thought there was this shadow market of prospective sellers waiting to pounce.</p>
<p>Changes in Inventory occur before changes in prices so if inventory doesn’t pick up…prices are going to go up.</p>
<p>I didn’t think this was a possibility…but I hope I don’t sell and then prices start rising.</p>
<p>Home prices in my area are down 25 to 30 percent. That’s my guess.</p>
<p>A good thing about the lack of inventory is it is taking me about two weeks longer to get the house ready for sale than I was hoping.</p>
<p>I am never buying a house that takes 4 to 5 years to sell.</p>
<p>Okay, I don’t know much about what is going in real estate lately. I have heard the following thing in the media and wonder about them. I heard that nationally 1 out of 3 homes sold today are foreclosures and they are selling for 30% of today’s fair market value. Is this true? This might explain a lack of inventory. I understand that those stats would be lopsided, because there are probably more foreclosures in the Las Vegas area, or some parts of FLA, or CA. Is that correct?</p>
<p>What is your forecast on future home pricing if the 30 year mortgage will no longer exist(hear people saying that in 4-6 years it won’t exist any longer), and a 20% downpayment is required? Does that make home prices look like they are not going to rise much over pricing today, and plummet even more (once those mortgates are gone)? Is home ownership going to be a poor investment in the future?</p>
<p>Economists say home prices are at significant risk of a double-dip:</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>If the 30 year mortgage is eliminated, that would hurt home prices. I doubt that will happen. There are investors that want to invest in long term paper.</p>
<p>If the minimum down payment is 20%, that would hurt home prices. Don’t think that is going to happen.</p>
<p>I don’t think there is a large percentage of homes that are selling for 30% of fair market value. I think there are people that will buy an asset for 30 cents on the dollar. Maybe prices are down to 30% of past market value in some areas.</p>
<p>I think housing is going to be a mixed bag in the future.
There are areas like Stockton, Ca where homes should never have been built in the first
place.</p>
<p>Then you have areas like Lafayette, Ca…people want to move to Lafayette. Lafayette is going to do fine…as are more well known places like SF, Manhattan, etc…</p>
<p>In my area of SoCal, we have very little inventory as well. What I have noticed browsing on Realtor.com is that any house that looks like a very good buy has back-up offers already.</p>
<p>dstark, Besides the obvious tips I’m sure you know about de-cluttering the inside, etc. etc. make sure your realtor takes high quality images of your home, using extra lighting inside, if necessary. Many realtors will outsource this to professionals and many do it themselves or have their administrative assistants do the photography-- with less than ideal results. Since imagery on the internet is so important, this is one component of the marketing process that should never be second-rate.</p>
<p>I like Robert Schiller quite a bit, he is one of my favorites…but a 20 to 25 percent drop from here is quite large. </p>
<p>I think some areas have already bottomed.</p>
<p>I think the areas that have the most price risk now are the expensive areas like Belvedere, Ca. Homes that are priced for 2 million and up. I didn’t check this week, but last week, Bevedere had about 30 homes for sale and nothing was sales pending.</p>
<p>There aren’t too many people that can afford Belvedere.</p>
<p>Jshain…you’re right. My wife and I have given or thrown away almost everything we own. We can fit our possessions in our garage if we don’t park our cars in the garage.</p>
<p>We are moving out of the house before we sell it too.
All new paint throughout the house, remodeled bathrooms, refinished or new hardwood floors, new carpets, new roof, new deck…etc…</p>
<p>Our house has never looked this good…even when it was new.</p>
<p>So…we have to price it right.</p>
<p>I’m in NCal as well. Hubby is a Realtor and this is the slowest market we have seen in 30 years. People are not putting their homes on the market if they don’t need to- [where would they go and could they qualify for a new mortgage are a few of the factors holding people back] and foreclosures have ground to a halt because of the robo-signers scandals, the lawsuits by all 50 AG’s against the banks who tried to foreclose on said properties, and all the legal implications for those holding the mortgages[ if indeed they actually hold the paper]so there are few foreclosure properties available.
It is also ridiculously hard to qualify for a new loan if you are a buyer, unless you want to put 1/2 down on a home, which most don’t or can’t afford to do. So the net result is a stagnant market. Homes that are priced right [ i.e a bargain compared to others in the area] do go fast to buyers with cash, but sellers who try the old method of “start high”, then reduce the price if it doesn’t bring offers end up with a house that sits and gets “stale” really fast.</p>
<p>Interesting, MenloParkmom…good explanation.</p>
<p>dstark, I hate to be rude, but do you honestly expect many houses to be on the market at this time? Who would want to sell their house for a loss if they didn’t have to? (I mean no offense by this) If they know the market will rebound and in another few years they can get another 20 or 30 percent return on it? I mean, it’s a nice time to be a buyer in that houses are cheap at the moment but an awful time to be a seller. I don’t know anyone around me who is selling anything at this point. </p>
<p>That’s something I wouldn’t even consider - house values are so far down, I personally plan on holding onto my house as long as I can to get the most money out of it. The only houses I see for sale in my area are the ones that are being foreclosed on, ones where people are moving due to job relocation, or the ones where people bought them so long ago that even with selling them in this market they are still making money. </p>
<p>I haven’t studied the market fully but I do look at my house on zillow occasionally when they e-mail me telling me my house value has changed. It gained 20k from when I bought it at the beginning of 09 till the end of 09, and throughout 2010 to current it’s lost 30k of that value… so according to zillow my house is worth 10k less then what it was two years ago. That being said, the amount they estimate on there is still 20k more then what I paid for it in that I got an absolute steal on this house, but I am not looking to go anywhere. If this house goes up another 30-40k or so, then maybe. (Not that I’m looking to sell anyway, but just making an example of what other people are probably thinking… why sell your house at a loss if you don’t HAVE to…) I don’t think you’re going to find a large selection of desirable houses in a prime location anywhere in this market.</p>
<p>Also, regarding qualifying for loans… People (and I’m generalizing here… this doesn’t encompass everyone) have no idea how to save for anything anymore. People live so far in debt to credit companies and colleges and the like and personally I think it’s ridiculous… they have no idea how to save for anything. People want home loans with 100 percent financing and such and they just aren’t going to get it. So I think your pool of qualified buyers is much smaller then it used to be also. Add in the fact that 10 percent of them are unemployed and it gets worse. My best friend and her husband recently made an offer on a foreclosed house and the day they were about to accept the counter offer her husband got laid off from his job and they had to unfortunately turn it down. Plus, these days, you need to have money to put down towards a down payment, a large chunk of it. Someone selling one house to move to another will (or may have) some equity in their house so it’s easier for them to invest in a new house but it can be hard for someone just starting out. I personally forked out over 30k when I bought my house and I was only 25 years old.</p>
<p>My boyfriend and I each own a house in the area. Some day we’ll probably sell one or both and move in together. But that won’t be happening any time soon in this economy. In the mean time, we’ll just enjoy having two homes while we wait out this market and hopefully make a nice return on our investments. We’re working on one project at a time and slowly adding value onto our homes. Currently we are working on finishing his basement. We are finishing his new laundry room today when we go pick out the new washer and dryer.</p>
<p>fendergirl, you are not being rude.</p>
<p>Yes…I expected more homes on the market than there is now.</p>
<p>So…I’m wrong about that. ;)</p>