It seems as some colleges move back to requiring standardized tests, the average scores for the following year will go down 50-150 points. This is more of my guestimate. I have not done the research, nor do I know how to do it properly.
Has anyone had a similar thought? Is this being tracked? Does this present an admissions strategy for students with solid scores? In other words, will a test optional ivy with a 1500 be looking favorably at students with a test required 1450 in that first year? Can we track the changes in reverse when tests became test optional and come to some conclusions.
There just might be an imperfect window that presents an opportunity until an institution achieves a leveling-out of scores.
The advice on CC has been to look at the scores on the common data set from before covid/TO for a more accurate range.
I don’t think we are going to see students applying with significantly lower scores. IMO those students are going to self select out of applying to those schools at all. So, I’m predicting a drop in application numbers.
Start with the CDSs. You can see if there was an increase in the test score range when a given school went TO. If so, maybe things will go back to pre-Covid numbers.
You might look also look at schools that already went back to test required to see the change in CDS test score ranges, if any. None are Ivies… but Tennessee, Purdue, GA Tech are all back to test required. I haven’t done an in-depth analysis, but don’t think the test score ranges dropped much, if any, at those schools when they went back to test required. Obviously they aren’t Ivies and being public schools impacts their test scores. Georgetown was always test required so not a good example (yes if a kid couldn’t take a test they could still apply, with an explanation.)
Lastly, once test required numbers are in, you can contact any school’s IR dept and ask if they have a test score analysis. Many will share that info with the public.
Since we know that grades are more important to schools than test scores anyway, its unlikely schools again requiring test scores are going to look any differently at high test scores than they did before.
Purdue probably isn’t a good to school to analyze scores because they were “test preferred” through Covid and never test optional. My understanding is that most applicants were still submitting scores and the common data set always listed test scores as “Very Important.”
I think it is fair to say at most colleges that went TO during COVID, the most obvious change was typically in the 25th, the 50th typically moved up much less, and the 75th often had not changed at all, or barely. This of course is what you would expect if people were strategically not submitting when they were otherwise competitive but their test scores specifically were low by the college’s reported statistics.
OK, and then when MIT went back to test required, it does look like they got fewer applications than from the year before, but it did not come close to entirely eliminating the recent increases, and it appears to be continuing to trend up from there.
Finally, Dartmouth’s white paper suggested that mostly advantaged applicants from high schools reasonably well-known to Dartmouth were getting similar admissions results whether they did or did not submit. It was more disadvantaged applicants from relatively unknown high schools who might get a different result, and specifically it was more likely they would get a favorable result if they submitted a test score that was still high, but below Dartmouth’s published 25th. I note this is not what some people assumed when they heard Dartmouth was going back to test required–they assumed it was so Dartmouth could weed out more people with test scores below Dartmouth’s published range, but actually Dartmouth wants to ADMIT more of those people–if they are in that specific category of applicant.
So personally, I don’t think this is likely going to actually change much for many people at Dartmouth or so on. I do think they may also see a temporary decline in applications from the year before, but the overall trend is still up. I think it won’t really be any less competitive for people with high test scores. But there may be a slight increase in the number of people who get in with submitted test scores in that high, but not as high as their current 25th range, and that may cause their observed 25th to drop back down a bit. But this will not likely be an indiscriminate effect, it will mostly be relevant to certain sorts of applicants.
Except for the caveat that one of the reasons AOs have struggled with a test optional world is the rampant grade inflation that happened around the same time.
I think the total number of students submitting scores didn’t change that significantly. TO applicants likely account for a large proportion of the increase in applications as self-selection was no longer happening.
A significant number of athletes are TO. That alone will bring the numbers back down without much impact on what non-athletes need to present.
Doesn’t he mean the number submitting didn’t change much but the total numbers went up because of TO (leading to in TO % you talk about?) anyway this should be fairly easy to verify from the CDS. Presumably more noticeable at more selective colleges.
Few school in the overall landscape have added tests and those schools don’t necessarily impact a ton of students and I’d surmise many TO kids already took the test to begin with, just didn’t submit.
Much of the TO changes are relatively small schools or schools in certain regions.
I think we saw this for MIT. During test-optional applications to the top schools including MiT increased but MIT’s application numbers dropped after going back to test-required. It has increased since but has not managed to hit the numbers during its test-optional phase.
I wonder if that’s true of other schools that have brought back required testing such as Georgia Tech and I think Purdue (I could be wrong on this one).
Also I wonder how the demographic cliff will impact applications? It wouldn’t surprise me if the apps for schools will go down anyway regardless of testing requirements.