https://admissions.yale.edu/podcast
So at a high level, a much higher percentage of people who submitted test scores got admitted than test optional applicants (6% to 2% apparently at Yale).
What was happening was basically that Yale was looking for additional markers of academic qualifications for the test optional applicants, and only finding them in some cases. And those cases skewed toward applicants from highly-resourced secondary schools.
Then most of the test optional admits did well, but there was still a positive correlation between higher test scores and GPAs. Yale has not released specific data yet, but it sounds very similar to what Dartmouth found. And long story short, there was actually a lot of individual variation, and the reported correlation was pretty weak, which is consistent with Dartmouth and Yale successfully using other markers to heavily filter the test optional applicant pool. But it was not entirely eliminated, which is consistent with their detailed explanations of what sorts of information they actually get from tests (see the baseball analogy podcast).
This may sound like nitpicking, but it really isn’t: they both said it was the best SINGLE factor, and specifically contrasted it with raw unnormalized HS GPAs.
But they don’t evaluate applicants with one or two single factors, they are using complex, contextual models with many factors, including factors that allow them to extract a lot more information out of grades with the help of full transcripts, school reports, demographic information, and so on.
OK, so then again they reported there was still a positive correlation between higher test scores and observed GPAs, but they did NOT say that meant test optional had forced them to admit a bunch of unqualified students. Instead, what actually happened is it was a lot easier for certain otherwise similar students to get admitted with high test scores, because they were essentially requiring all these other factors to make up for the lack of high test scores, and that was not working out for certain applicant populations.
So, no big crisis in terms of actual test optional admits being unprepared, but a problem in terms of who was being advantaged by their actual test optional admittance process.
And again, this isn’t just a line or two in a news article, this has been discussed at great length now by both Dartmouth and Yale.
So really, it would have to be an incredibly elaborate fiction with all sorts of faked data in order for the hidden crisis caused by TO narrative to actually be true.