Thank you! I agree that students can succeed anywhere that’s a fit for them. The odd thing to me is that when I do the net price calculators, the elite universities show that I’d pay the lowest price (because they give free tuition for incomes under $150k). So far, I’ve done the net calculator for a wide range of institutions including state schools and smaller private schools with higher admissions rates, and the elite schools like Princeton and Northwestern and Notre Dame are showing me the lowest net prices for my family.
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Especially if funds are limited, you/your parents taking out a large loan has drawbacks. There is a financial guy on the media in my neck of the woods who used to say that you should never take out more in loans than you are likely to earn your first year out of college..
To be clear, this post from you accurately discusses the concern I was identifying with what I perceived as the earlier generic claims that ED does not really have an advantage for unhooked applicants. While that is true for most people in most circumstances, it is not necessarily true for specific applicants at specific schools, often largely because of the yield protection analysis you identify. And, since we are giving our thoughts to a specific student who believes she is more competitive for a specific ED school than she would be in RD, and we do not know what school it is, or her facts, I found the generic ED does not up your chances advice, unhelpful. I was specifically thinking of how if I read that advice about a kid from my kid’s school who was actually competitive for U Chicago, I’d think the poster did not know what they were talking about and then unnecessarily discount all of their other likely valid points. So, I wanted to highlight that it could actually be true that at the specific school OP is thinking about, they might actually have an advantage in ED despite the generic assertions others appeared to be making (depending on the specific circumstances which we do not know), but even with that I would absolutely not ED to such a school while having to take on the debt OP has said it would require.
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That’s not so odd when you realize one of the reasons they get so many applications for every slot to fill is they can provide such generous aid. And of course the institutional resources to provide such aid is at least correlated with other things many potential applicants find attractive in a college.
But merit is a way for colleges without the resources to compete like that through need aid to still get some great students. Necessarily, this is about students they often wouldn’t get without merit, so you have to be willing to go somewhere you would be considered a great catch, not just where they barely decide to admit you.
But that can be a pretty great deal all around. Indeed, sometimes merit is bundled with honors programs and such, so not only do you get a lower cost of attendance, but also more than your per capita share of other institutional resources.
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This makes sense - they are wealthier. And getting to $18k on merit from anywhere - is highly unlikely short of full rides that are out there. But note if it’s $18K + loans, it’s not really $18K. Loans have to be paid back.
But your parents, not you, should do the NPCs. It’s highly unlikely you know all the answers to the questions, and many parents don’t like to provide their kids that level of detail. Also, the income based (under $150K) also factor in assets. It’s good you are running NPCs. Don’t trust the statements.
And yes, you’ll have Ivy that can’t find jobs or don’t do well and the guy from a directional - Southern State U - that regularly got drunk - and yet does great in the workforce.
In the end, your success will be up to you.
You seem thoughtful and I’m sure in that regard you’ll be fine wherever you end up.
What we don’t know - is your desired field, possible grad school, and the job market in general in five years from now.
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Not that odd: schools with big endowments & high fractions of full-pay students are able to give the lowest net price to those who need it. Most of those are elite, but not all are. I suggest running NPCs at some more private colleges to find those that offer low net price but where you have better odds of acceptance.
$50k debt might be ok if you’re certain you’ll get a job in a STEM field? Otherwise a $50k debt seems very risky to me. I suggest considering commuting to a state public university. You may be able to graduate with little or no debt. Your long-term success is determined by you, not the college you go to: How does prestige matter for kids who want to go into business? - #167 by cc88288
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Yes, “yield protection” or consideration of “level of applicant’s interest” is most important when the applicant appears “overqualified” for the college, so that the college would ordinarily believe that the applicant would get a more attractive (to most applicants) admission offer elsewhere. Obviously, an “overqualified” applicant applying ED to signal that this college is the applicant’s first choice eliminates this hesitation on the part of the college.
But it means that applicants reaching for the college may not get this kind of boost from ED, because applicants reaching for the college are unlikely to have other admission offers that are more attractive than that college.
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Yeah, unhooked applicants who think they actually need a “boost” to get admitted with their qualifications are the least likely ED applicants to actually get a boost. At highly selective colleges they may just be rejected ED, or possibly deferred. But very likely not admitted.
It wouldn’t really matter except sometimes it seems to me like such kids are hoping applying ED1 and then ED2 will make up for not finding some realistic Targets and Likelies.
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Agree. However, this does not necessarily mean that there is no boost, at least at schools like Chicago that seemingly want to fill up as much of their classes as possible in ED to reduce the yield uncertainty later. But such a boost is likely less than raw differences in admission rates may lead applicants to believe, since ED tends to include those with big hooks like recruited athletes and may generally have a stronger pool applicants to begin with.
However, ED is generally not a good idea if debt greater than the federal direct loans would be needed to attend that college.
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This can be the case for some students. I have seen a few cases of academically very strong students who got very good need based financial aid from an elite university (even to the point of covering 100% of the cost in the case of someone who I used to know but eventually lost touch with).
One friend of a daughter was a very strong student, but came from a large family where the parents were divorced, the mother was unemployed, and the father’s small business was struggling. She went to community college for two years, did VERY well, and then transferred to an in-state public university with very good financial aid (both need and merit likely applied in this case, and I am not sure which was the basis for her aid). I am pretty sure that tuition and fees were covered by her financial aid, and she just needed to pay for books and her car while living with her dad. I happened to run into her one month before her university graduation and she was doing very well with a big smile on her face and not much debt (I am almost sure that it was less than $50k). It does seem a bit unfortunate that such a strong student and nice person was not able to afford a full 4 years of university, but she did end up doing very well with a marketable business-oriented bachelor’s degree and relatively little debt.
In terms of merit aid from in-state public universities, I have seen some cases where the NPC predicted this (accurately) and some cases where the NPC did not predict this. We were pleasantly surprised by some merit aid that had not been predicted by the NPC. A lot of students stay with in-state public universities because that is what they can afford. However I do understand that some students will get an even more affordable offer from a highly ranked university that meets full need for all students.
I think that it is hard to say much more without much more detailed information regarding for example which universities we are talking about and what state you are from. Regardless the time to decide on “ED or not ED” is pretty much here.
Best wishes. I hope that this turns out well for you.