If you don’t qualify for need based aid, schools that provide only need based aid and not merit aid (like MIT and Stanford) won’t be affordable. Run the Net Price Calculators (NPCs) on each school’s website to get an estimated COA.
If you would be happy to attend UNC Charlotte, then you won’t need another affordable safety.
You are fortunate to live in NC with a number of terrific in-state schools. UNC Charlotte, and NCSU (if you get in) will be tough to beat and the price will be right. Would you consider any others, say Appalachian State or UNC Asheville?
I think your categorization of colleges is correct, although there might be some reach schools that aren’t ultra reaches that you might consider. Maybe Richmond or Emory (although affordability will depend on getting merit). Good luck.