Students in waitlist should apply next year?

First of all I wanted to thank you to everyone in this forum for sharing information about boarding school process.

Here are some stats I pulled out of curiosity and wanted to share in the forum for future applicants. ( Please note this are approximate numbers and there is no way to verify it against actually numbers- as far as I know) . I am putting this here because I wish we knew about these numbers at beginning of the process.

School | Approx. 9th Grade Admits | Approx. Total Seniors | Estimated Acceptance Rate
Phillips Academy Andover | ~120–130 | ~320–340 | ~13%
Phillips Exeter Academy | ~120 | ~300–320 | ~10%
Deerfield Academy | ~110 | ~200–210 | ~16–17%
St. Paul’s School | ~80–90 | ~160–170 | ~13%
Choate Rosemary Hall | ~100–110 | ~220–240 | ~23%
Groton School | ~30–40 | ~85–90 | ~9–14%
Lawrenceville School | ~100–110 | ~210–230 | ~18–19%
Hotchkiss School | ~100 | ~180–200 | ~21%
Milton Academy | ~90–100 | ~175–190 | ~19%
Taft School | ~100–110 | ~190–200 | ~16%

This indicates to me couple of things.

– Schools can decide how many to actually enroll every year and play with their yields.

  • -This system works for the school but not for kids.
    – Kids & parents tend to believe class size is large but actual enrollment seems to be only half of that at ninth grade level
    – Re-applying makes sense if you are serious about school because they do enroll almost half of the class in other grades

That should come as a surprise to nobody

And unless they announce otherwise in advance, those numbers are pretty constant year-on-year

And by design. And most would be for 10th grade. You’re neglecting the big reason - many middle schools and virtually all junior boarding schools run through 9th, and students often prefer to finish there and join a boarding school in 10th

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Where are you getting the acceptance rates? I think Deerfield is 13% and Choate is closer to 16%? Not sure about the others, but you might want to check your numbers, especially if sharing them?

It is interesting how much the classes grow. I tried to convince our third (and last) child to apply for 10th, as we wanted one more year at home, but they were not having it. They want the full 4 year experience.

And if you did not get your desired outcome, you should absolutely apply again. I would also add a few schools and expand your search. That list is ultra competitive. There are so many amazing schools out there.

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The estimates for Groton are significantly off the mark.

See: Record-breaking admissions season yields 95 new Groton School students | Groton School (Published April 2025)

The graduating class is typically 89-90 students.

The entering 9th grade class will have ~55-60 admits (on top of the ~26 continuing second formers). There are very few students admitted in higher grades, unlike at other schools.

Recent admissions stats suggest an admissions rate in the high single digits across 8-10th grades.

9th grade will be the “easiest” grade to enter. 8th grade has an extremely high yield rate, so admissions are tight. 10th grade is not nearly as big an entry point (percentage wise) at Groton as at other schools, so the admission rate there will be tight as well.

Admissions at the most selective institutions are becoming increasingly difficult year-on-year.

As shocking as it may seem on its face, the numbers for other schools above likely also overstate the raw acceptance rates at these schools.

If you could magically separate the “unhooked” applicants from the rest of the applicant pool when calculating admissions stats, you’d likely see the admission rates at most of these schools drop by a significant margin.

Applicants be warned: hold on to your dreams, but don’t base your self-worth on an acceptance or rejection from any of these schools.

At the end of the day, acceptance rates today make admission largely a matter of luck even for the most outstanding applicants.

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I agree about Groton. I know someone who transferred as an 11th grader a few years ago and they were the only new 11th grader admitted. And it used to be, maybe still is, an ISL league rule that the ISL schools do not allow PGs. So after 10th grade can be very tricky at some schools.
It is a good question to ask on tours – I asked at Concord Academy three years ago and they said they aim to admit everyone in 9th, and accept only a few for 10th if they have students leave after 9th. Whereas at Frederick Gunn, they told us they admit up to 40% of the eventual graduating class for 10th grade and later.

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As several people in the know have noted, there are multiple errors in your data, not least in your undercounting the entry classes of Andover/Exeter by 50% and missing the mark entirely on Choate’s top-tier selectivity.

Class sizes are publicly available via most state DOEs (especially in New England, although CT does not report); the biennial NCES Private School Survey (dating from 2021-22, which skewed counts from COVID); and the schools’ own annual college profiles (supplemented by the occasional soft/hard copy fact book — Exeter’s is best), which typically disclose the size of the senior class and less often the headcount by grade.

Admissions rates are harder to come by, usually anecdotal, and sometimes massaged (both up and down, always for the school’s benefit). Good sources for these data are admissions letters, revisit day presentations/humblebrags, and student newspaper postmortems after April 10. Recently it feels like less is being disclosed compared to prior years. No idea why.

Of course the gold standard is yield, class-specific demographics, and hook-level metrics, but you’ll have to engineer an NYU-style hack of school servers to access these data. Not recommending this approach unless you relish a visit from the FBI.

If you check public sources, you’ll substantially improve the stats on which you’re basing your conclusions.

If you’re interested in reapplying next year and not reclassifying, I believe that, among peer schools, Pomfret intakes the largest number of 10th graders relative to the size of its 9th-grade class. This is off the top of my head, so feel free to challenge this number.

Wishing you good luck getting off the waitlist this year! It can happen. This is a wild year so maybe it will happen for you!

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The Hotchkiss numbers are off. Based on the most recent published year (24/25), the acceptance rate is a little less than 15% and the number of seniors is 168.

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The numbers suggest Choate is the easiest school (relatively speaking) to get into among those listed. Perhaps Choate has relaxed its admission criteria in order to maintain enrollment? Otherwise, I would have guessed Choate was on a par with Andover and Exeter in terms of selectivity.

Assuming the numbers are right, which I highly doubt. Choate doesn’t publish acceptance rates these days, but it’s been in the mid-teens for years based on word of mouth. There is no universe where their admissions standards are relaxed compared to Andover and Exeter.

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These numbers seem quite off. It looks like you’re assuming that the classes essentially double for most of these schools, but I don’t think that this is the case. Each school has a different proportion of students in each grade/form. Groton (since it has an 8th grade) is quite different than Exeter, which has many more PGs. The math isn’t consistent across schools.

For example, how is it that DA admits 110 students each year and then ends up with 200 seniors, but only has 600 students total? 110 + 140 + 150 + 200? It seems unlikely that DA has 50 PGs entering in 12th grade.

I would recommend re-running your numbers using better sources. Otherwise these figures are just going to confuse people.

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Your numbers are off, but they are reasonable guesstimates.

You can verify numbers of graduates & total number of students in the senior class on each school’s website (typically under college counseling).

Each school’s website will usually shares the acceptance rate for the prior year.

OP: You have listed ten of the top prep schools in the country and, arguably, in the world.

10th grade admissions is more difficult than being admitted for the 9th grade at the schools on your list with which I am familiar. However, many students eligible for 10th grade admission apply as 9th graders/third formers/etc. Often done for sports or to enhance one’s SSAT score.

Agree numbers are not correct and most BS do not list them, so often they are wrong online and then others continue to push the myth. I recommend focusing your time less on this and more on getting the most out of your current school, what you can do to enhance your offering (if that is what you still want next year). Consider your list and how well you match. Perhaps broaden or change the list. There are tons of amazing schools not at the tippy top. Research which have large 10th grade entry years or consider re-classing. Have an honest conversation with yourself about why you think the results were what they were and what you really want. You may never really know, but without reflection there is no growth. And heck sometimes it is just the year. Remember school reputation does not yield fit. If this is really what you want learn from the experience and dig deep, but it is arduous and causes students to forget that they need to be present in their current school situation. You can find greatness in yourself anywhere. Spinning phantom numbers is a distraction and pushes the false narrative further.
Good luck.

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