When you saw LeBron James play basketball as a kid you knew his high chance at a NBA championship, and he was drafted right out of high school. When you watch my kids play the ball you know they have no chance at a NBA title.
How much do we attribute success to talent, grit, or luck? Is there any solid research out there? I simply pulled the % 60, 20, 20 out of thin air.
If we have a ballpark idea of the above for a kid, do we still emphasize the admission rate at a particular school? A 5% on average may mean 80% for student 1 but 0% for student 2.
Can CC develop an app that chances HS graduates? I see big $ pouring in.
Probably not an answer to your question OP, BUT I saw LeBron play in HS (the school where I teach played his school). You certainly knew the NBA was a strong possibility - but I don’t think the title was a given. Even for top players , there was/is a luck component- just ask Steph Curry this week…
But then again, I follow the logic that there are no “losers” on professional sports teams- they all make WAY to much $$ to be whining about who has what trophy (JMHO)
I’m a fan of grit, which equals hard work in my in my definition. But, I see success as mostly perception. I am grateful for who I am and what I have and value my own definition of success over how others perceive it, therefore, I am successful. No NBA career or top 50 college admission required.
Talent alone is overrated but sometimes innate talent is the key to success (see LeBron). Or see me. My best friend growing up and I took piano lessons. We both practiced a lot. I was a competent player but lacked that certain something that would take me to the next level. She, on the other hand, had that innate thing. She ended up at Julliard and has a concert career. (I became a lawyer!)
I think the percentage breakdown varies by individual, but in many cases, if the “grit” portion = resilience + perserverance + hard work, that can equal 50%+.
Based on what I’ve seen among my son’s friends (in their late 20s/early 30s), once a certain talent level is reached, “luck” in the form of family connections and “hard work” are much more important than I would have thought. A childhood friend of my son’s is a nationally recognized soccer star. He was definitely NOT the most talented athlete that my son played with, but the fact that his dad was a MLS coach and that the kid, himself, worked both hard and smart to make himself the best player he could be helps to explain his success.
There’s no mysterious arm waving about percentages of talent/grit/luck.
LeBron had DOCUMENTATION in HS (recorded game stats) that he was an awesome player who consistently produced results. In contrast, your kid may have had no documentation of such.
Athletics is a meritocracy. Results are all that matter.
On the other hand … at age 15, Michael Jordan couldn’t dunk a basketball and thusly didn’t make HS varsity. “Whenever I was working out and got tired and figured I ought to stop, I’d close my eyes and see that list in the locker room without my name on it,” Jordan would explain. “That usually got me going again.”
I had a college girlfriend who wrote in a letter to me: “SUCCESS is written like the Curse of Cain on your forehead.” This was, of course, a kiss-off letter. (Translation: “You’re 100% likely to be successful in life, but leave me out of it, buster!”)
No NBA career or top 50 college admission required.