One of his top choices has a 25th% ACT of 22. CDS says over 20% of students have a score 18-23. My son is below the 25%ile, but it the range of 20% of students.
Teaching is to not submit if less than the 25%ile. But, what if GPA is further off? Only 2% at this school are in bottom 1/4 of class and 8% have a gpa of 2.4-3.0.
Your kid needs what every single kid needs regardless of GPA or test score. A rock solid safety which he’d be happy to attend which you can afford. Period, full stop.
You can debate test optional until the cows come home. But at the end of the day, SOME colleges will ignore what isn’t there and focus on what IS there. Some colleges will assume that his scores are extremely low if he didn’t submit. And some won’t care at all- his scores will put him squarely in the middle; his GPA puts him squarely in the middle, and all things being equal they’ll be happy to have him on campus.
Focus on finding the safety and don’t invest in a theoretical question like this one. The answer is that nobody really knows. So move on.
How much one year of low grades impacts a student’s overall high school GPA does not depend upon which year was weak. However, how much one year of low grades will impact a student’s chances of acceptance to university probably will in many cases depend upon which year was weak.
As one example, if a student’s freshman year was weak, but their last three years of high school are strong, then this looks like a student who has matured and is ready to do well in university. There are also cases where a student is adjusting to a new country or a new home, and possibly even adjusting to studying in a new language, and then starts to do better after a year of adjustment.
As another example, if a student is sick for one year, and if they have fully recovered from the illness, then a student’s guidance counselor can explain this in a reference letter to again make the point that the student is ready for university.
This does lead to the question of which year was weak, was there a clear explanation for this, and what was your son’s GPA without that one bad year?
Texas State looks possible, but I don’t know if your high school ranks or not. If it’s bottom quarter on class rank, it would seem to be a reach, but the ACT would be in the 25 to 50% range.
Edited to add, at New Mexico State the class rank may still be an issue, but the ACT is exactly at the 50%. And if your counselor can explain the one year of poor performance, it’s probably less likely to be an issue.
From an other thread…this student is an Ohio resident. They should be looking at Cleveland State University, Bowling Green, and Kent State. Even with the ACT and GPA reported here, I think these are likely acceptances for this student.