Decisions at those UC schools are unpredictable, but I don’t think it’s a lottery as to who gets in.
Here are some other R1 schools on our radar in blue/purple states:
Northern Arizona University
Stony Brook University
University of Arizona
University of Hawaii at Manoa
University of Massachusetts at Amherst
University of Minnesota at Twin Cities
University of New Mexico
University of Pittsburgh
University of Washington
Washington State University
I believe all of these schools offer some merit to OOS students.