I think kids create success - in the UC case, the GPA and PIQs.
They don’t pick a name out of a hat.
‘If she’s top shelf, she’ll get in.
@Gumbymom is best to analyze the 3 GPAs (others might too). You haven’t posted here but you have before.
I can’t say you’re getting in but a lottery it’s not.
And while it seems you preference UCs, there are back up possibilities.
Millions of kids are in college and most don’t walk on water. A few but that’s not the norm.
I hope that info helps in identifying a few safety to look at.
PS - don’t worry about selectivity on others. Some like Kansas have high acceptance rates - like a UCM, they have a mandate / access.
But kids succeeding in majors like that - let’s say the creme will rise and not all are the creme de la creme. And like KU, for example, and the Honors college will add more heft.
I’m just saying - she might, like many, assume some aren’t at the UC level but remind her, that’s what she needs - safeties…in case.
Good luck.