Because they all applied to the 5 most selective ones?
Yes, there is unpredictability from the applicant’s point of view when subjectively graded aspects like essays are included. (This is even more so at other colleges where there are also recommendation letters.)
If your student has UC ELC status, it is likely that she will get into a UC. If shut out of those she applied to, she is likely to get an admission letter from UCM.
Definitely look at Oregon State and Colorado State - both have a ton of CA students who didn’t get into the UC they were hoping for and with WUE the price will be nice.
I know it doesn’t hit all your criteria, but wanted to put University of Utah on your radar. My daughter was also a full IB student, and we found a lot of the public schools were stingy with credit (my daughter actually took the AP econ exams with just IB SL as many in her school found they could pass easily and most schools took the AP credit, but not the IB. Utah is insanely generous, a full IB diploma will waive all the general requirements, and you basically go in with sophomore standing. They give merit and there is a straightforward path to residency as well to get the cost in state after the first year. It’s an easy flight from CA, vs some of the options further away, but it’s not blue.
The deadline has passed for UW.
There are still plenty of great flagships listed in posts above that have regular decision deadlines coming up in January, but do check the deadlines. 
Also check whether the deadline has passed for full consideration for things like merit, honors, etc. (some schools have an earlier deadline for merit consideration).
Have you checked her HS’s admit rate by UC campus and average admitted UC Capped weighted GPA using this link?
This can help access your chances for the UC’s.
Thanks @Gumbymom I’ve seen that site before but didn’t know there were additional tabs to see admittance by GPA by school.
I presume the stats given in the website are UC capped GPA.?
Her capped GPA is 4.3 as being an IB student she has to do a bunch of additional courses but this seems higher than the mean reported for the campuses. Her uncapped GPA is 4.65 so she has a good chance, but with PIQs and a human reading them in a few minutes, who knows.
Yes, the GPA listed is the UC capped weighted and the data is from 2024 but it gives you an idea of how she compares to the admitted students from previous years. With a 4.3 UC Capped weighted GPA, she will be competitive for all the UC’s on her list.
Best of luck to her.