“As far as I can tell, for OOS students, being in the top 10% in a demanding school isn’t enough to do more than get the probability to about 25%. I suppose it depends on the competition in any given year, but based on the history from our school district in MA, it’s just as hard to get into UVA as an Ivy, possibly harder.”
For an unhooked OOS applicant, you are probably right that the UVA admission standards approach Ivy level.
The offer rate for OOS last cycle was 24%. If you back out legacies, athletes, URMs etc., the OOS acceptance rate is going to be a good bit lower. I’d guess maybe 15%?