The "easy" and "hard" states for making NMSF

Test Preparation
1

For making the cut for NMSF, some states are really harsh, and some are a cakewalk. Here’s a look at how hard/easy it has been to make NMSF in each state. The data from 2013 test takers comes from the 2013/14 NMSC Annual Report (page 29).

http://www.nationalmerit.org/annual_report.pdf

First of all, a look at where the entrants live:

Legend for data columns:

  1. Percentage: #state entrants ÷ #national TOTAL entrants
  2. Percentage: #Commended ÷ #national TOTAL entrants
  3. Percentage: #NMSF ÷ #national TOTAL entrants
  4. #state entrants
  5. #Commended
  6. #NMSF
  7. Name of state

as a percentage of TOTAL entrants
100% _ 100% _ 99% | 1,476,770 _ 36,948 _ 16,227 | TOTAL
13.5% _ 9.0% _ 8.3% | 199,383 _ 3,311 _ 1,353 | Texas
12.0% _ 18.0% _ 12.5% | 176,879 _ 6,644 _ 2,027 | California
9.7% _ 7.4% _ 6.2% | 142,574 _ 2,730 _ 1,012 | NewYork
4.7% _ 4.1% _ 4.0% | 69,436 _ 1,522 _ 656 | Pennsylvania
4.5% _ 3.4% _ 4.8% | 66,705 _ 1,253 _ 777 | Florida
4.5% _ 6.7% _ 3.3% | 65,937 _ 2,479 _ 540 | NewJersey
3.2% _ 4.9% _ 2.0% | 47,972 _ 1,822 _ 328 | Massachusetts
3.2% _ 4.3% _ 2.4% | 47,825 _ 1,578 _ 390 | Virginia
3.2% _ 2.8% _ 3.8% | 47,724 _ 1,040 _ 618 | Ohio
3.0% _ 3.9% _ 2.0% | 43,907 _ 1,447 _ 318 | Maryland
2.8% _ 2.2% _ 2.8% | 42,040 _ 798 _ 448 | NorthCarolina
2.6% _ 3.8% _ 4.3% | 37,718 _ 1,419 _ 699 | Illinois
2.5% _ 2.7% _ 2.8% | 36,244 _ 1,012 _ 453 | Georgia
2.3% _ 2.7% _ 2.0% | 33,341 _ 996 _ 317 | Washington
2.3% _ 1.6% _ 2.0% | 33,312 _ 607 _ 321 | Indiana
2.1% _ 2.2% _ 1.1% | 31,268 _ 802 _ 178 | Connecticut
1.8% _ 1.3% _ 3.6% | 27,283 _ 467 _ 588 | Michigan
1.4% _ 1.1% _ 2.0% | 20,914 _ 421 _ 318 | Arizona
1.4% _ 3.3% _ 1.9% | 20,851 _ 1,206 _ 305 | OtherSelectionUnits
1.3% _ 1.6% _ 1.9% | 19,376 _ 608 _ 310 | Minnesota
1.3% _ 1.3% _ 1.5% | 19,033 _ 491 _ 248 | Colorado
1.2% _ 0.5% _ 1.2% | 17,512 _ 184 _ 194 | SouthCarolina
1.2% _ 0.8% _ 2.1% | 17,080 _ 282 _ 348 | Wisconsin
1.1% _ 1.1% _ 2.0% | 16,004 _ 412 _ 323 | Tennessee
1.0% _ 1.2% _ 1.2% | 15,433 _ 448 _ 194 | Oregon
0.9% _ 1.1% _ 2.0% | 13,069 _ 399 _ 328 | Missouri
0.8% _ 0.5% _ 1.4% | 12,278 _ 182 _ 227 | Alabama
0.8% _ 0.4% _ 1.3% | 11,604 _ 134 _ 207 | Louisiana
0.7% _ 0.5% _ 1.3% | 10,910 _ 192 _ 209 | Kentucky
0.7% _ 0.3% _ 0.5% | 10,219 _ 116 _ 78 | Maine
0.6% _ 0.8% _ 0.9% | 9,254 _ 286 _ 154 | Kansas
0.6% _ 0.4% _ 1.1% | 8,239 _ 158 _ 176 | Iowa
0.6% _ 0.2% _ 0.6% | 8,181 _ 88 _ 93 | Nevada
0.5% _ 0.4% _ 0.4% | 8,033 _ 158 _ 71 | NewHampshire
0.5% _ 0.4% _ 1.1% | 8,010 _ 149 _ 173 | Oklahoma
0.5% _ 0.2% _ 0.5% | 7,654 _ 86 _ 80 | Idaho
0.5% _ 0.2% _ 0.5% | 7,155 _ 63 _ 84 | NewMexico
0.5% _ 0.3% _ 0.3% | 6,806 _ 115 _ 47 | Delaware
0.5% _ 0.1% _ 0.9% | 6,685 _ 32 _ 149 | Arkansas
0.5% _ 0.3% _ 0.4% | 6,650 _ 101 _ 68 | Hawaii
0.4% _ 0.1% _ 0.8% | 5,841 _ 44 _ 136 | Mississippi
0.4% _ 0.2% _ 0.6% | 5,812 _ 78 _ 98 | Nebraska
0.4% _ 0.2% _ 0.3% | 5,707 _ 88 _ 56 | RhodeIsland
0.4% _ 0.3% _ 0.9% | 5,619 _ 93 _ 151 | Utah
0.3% _ 0.1% _ 0.3% | 4,267 _ 25 _ 51 | Montana
0.3% _ 0.6% _ 0.4% | 4,100 _ 228 _ 57 | DistrictofColumbia
0.3% _ 0.3% _ 0.3% | 3,787 _ 102 _ 42 | Vermont
0.2% _ 0.0% _ 0.5% | 3,596 _ 0 _ 88 | WestVirginia
0.2% _ 0.0% _ 0.3% | 2,264 _ 17 _ 41 | SouthDakota
0.1% _ 0.1% _ 0.2% | 2,196 _ 29 _ 39 | Alaska
0.1% _ 0.0% _ 0.2% | 1,842 _ 5 _ 35 | NorthDakota
0.1% _ 0.0% _ 0.2% | 1,241 _ 1 _ 26 | Wyoming

One-quarter of entrants live in Texas & California. Two-thirds of all the entrants live in the first 12 states (Texas thru Illinois).

Texas has more entrants than California, but California has twice as many Commended. I also find it interesting that TX has so many PSAT test takers, since Texas admits a sizable fraction of students via the class ranking “percentage” plan.

2

Drumroll… Now the toughest and easiest states to make NMSF.

The green numbers are the states with the highest percentage of Commended. The red numbers are the states with the lowest percentage of Commended. The orange numbers are the lowest percentage of state entrants making the NMSF cut. The blue numbers are highest percentage of state entrants making the NMSF cut.

As a national average:
2.5% make the cut for Commended
1.1% make the cut for NMSF
The fraction of Commended who become NMSF is 43.9%

Legend for data columns:

  1. Percentage: #Commended ÷ #state entrants
  2. Percentage: #NMSF ÷ #state entrants
  3. ratio: %NMSF ÷ %Commended
  4. Name of state

as a percentage of entrants in a state
2.50% 1.10% | 43.9% | National Avg
3.80% 0.68% | ** 18.0% ** | Massachusetts
3.76% 0.82% | ** 21.8% ** | NewJersey
3.30% 0.72% | ** 22.0% ** | Maryland
2.56% 0.57% | ** 22.2% ** | Connecticut
3.30% 0.82% | ** 24.7% ** | Virginia
5.56% 1.39% | ** 25.0% ** | DistrictofColumbia
5.78% 1.46% | ** 25.3% ** | OtherSelectionUnits
3.76% 1.15% | 30.5% | California
2.99% 0.95% | 31.8% | Washington
1.91% 0.71% | 37.1% | NewYork
1.66% 0.68% | 40.9% | Texas
1.69% 0.69% | 40.9% | Delaware
2.69% 1.11% | 41.2% | Vermont
2.19% 0.94% | 43.1% | Pennsylvania
2.90% 1.26% | 43.3% | Oregon
2.79% 1.25% | 44.8% | Georgia
1.97% 0.88% | 44.9% | NewHampshire
3.76% 1.85% | 49.3% | Illinois
2.58% 1.30% | 50.5% | Colorado
3.14% 1.60% | 51.0% | Minnesota
1.82% 0.96% | 52.9% | Indiana
3.09% 1.66% | 53.8% | Kansas
1.90% 1.07% | 56.1% | NorthCarolina
2.18% 1.29% | 59.4% | Ohio
1.88% 1.16% | 62.0% | Florida
1.54% 0.98% | 63.6% | RhodeIsland
1.14% 0.76% | 67.2% | Maine
1.52% 1.02% | 67.3% | Hawaii
2.01% 1.52% | 75.5% | Arizona
2.57% 2.02% | 78.4% | Tennessee
3.05% 2.51% | 82.2% | Missouri
1.12% 1.05% | 93.0% | Idaho
1.05% 1.11% | 105.4% | SouthCarolina
1.08% 1.14% | 105.7% | Nevada
1.76% 1.92% | 108.9% | Kentucky
1.92% 2.14% | 111.4% | Iowa
1.86% 2.16% | 116.1% | Oklahoma
1.65% 2.04% | 123.4% | Wisconsin
1.48% 1.85% | 124.7% | Alabama
1.34% 1.69% | 125.6% | Nebraska
1.71% 2.16% | 125.9% | Michigan
0.88% 1.17% | 133.3% | NewMexico
1.32% 1.78% | 134.5% | Alaska
1.15% 1.78% | 154.5% | Louisiana
1.66% 2.69% | 162.4% | Utah
0.59% 1.20% | 204.0% | Montana
0.75% 1.81% | 241.2% | SouthDakota
0.75% 2.33% | 309.1% | Mississippi
0.48% 2.23% | 465.6% | Arkansas
0.27% 1.90% | 700.0% | NorthDakota
0.08% 2.10% | 2600.0% | Wyoming
0.00% 2.45% | #DIV/0! | WestVirginia

The column NMSF:Commended ratio (column3) is a metric of toughness/easiness to make NMSF in a state. The states with the most competitive environments are the ones that have disproportionately high number of high scorers (i.e. a high fraction of Commended) and a disproportionately low number of students who make the NMSF cut. These are the states highlighted in magenta:
18.0% Massachusetts
21.8% NewJersey
22.0% Maryland
22.2% Connecticut
24.7% Virginia
25.0% DistrictofColumbia
25.3% OtherSelectionUnits

The states where you barely need to breathe and have a pulse to make NMSF are:
309.1% Mississippi
465.6% Arkansas
700.0% NorthDakota
2600.0% Wyoming

DIV/0! WestVirginia (lol, WV has a zero-division error…)

I encourage other posters to cut & paste the table in Excel and “mine” the data to make/share their own conclusions.

3

Hi, I know that this is not that relevant, but what is a 200 SI percentile wise

4

@GMTplus7 And now you know why I made the case for a Maryland to Mississippi move about 10 years ago. Clearly, DC or VA were not an improvement in this regard.

Thanks for the analysis!

5

@Eminem99 wrote

That is what @payn4ward has been trying to ferret out w crowdsourcing subscores and corresponding percentiles, on another thread in this subforum.

6

I would also like to point out here that those states with the highest cutoff scores are usually the ones with the best public school systems and rates of test prep. For example, schools in Massachusetts are usually of superior quality to those in Missouri, and students in the Northeast are much more likely statistically to be focused on standardized test prep.

Ranking of high school “quality” - http://www.usnews.com/education/best-high-schools/articles/how-states-compare
I think you’ll find that list roughly follows the cutoffs in descending order.

Just something to think about.

7

It’s also important to recognize that students in those areas often aren’t even exposed to the SAT, and haven’t had the opportunities of those in other states. Plus, the insinuation that you only have to show up for the test is not only utterly wrong, but insulting. Each test taker going for NM puts in their best effort, and a NMSF score is NOT easy to get, no matter what state you live in.

8

Since PA has no highlighted numbers, would it be an “average” state? I ask because it usually has one of the top 10 highest cutoffs for NMSF.

9

@Eminem99 I do not have enough information to know. School guidance counselors probably have this information already. If I were to guess now, around 96% +/- 1%

10

I’m not sure I understand the point of your analysis. According to fairtest, District of Columbia had a 225 cutoff last year. Massachusetts had 223. Maryland and Virginia had 222. Connecticut had only 220. http://www.fairtest.org/sites/default/files/NationalMerit2016CutoffRelease.pdf But you say DC was the easiest of the bunch? That makes no sense.

The number of students taking the PSAT doesn’t determine anything. They look at the total number of students graduating from high school, whether or not they took the PSAT. Saying that it’s “harder” to make NMSF if there is a high PSAT participation rate doesn’t make much sense. Unless you think many of the students who skip the PSAT would have qualified, and only take the PSAT if they live in a state which forces them to take the exam. Do you know that to be the case?

11

The NMSF per state is touted to be proportional to that state’s population of candidates, i.e. if a state has 14% of the entrants, then the state is supposed to be allocated 14% of the NMSF. But that is far from the case.

Some states get short-changed in a big way. The states shown in red get less than 2/3 of what they should expect. Woe to the entrants in MA NJ MD CO VA DC. Massachusetts gets especially whacked!

Some states get a bonanza. The states shown in blue get more than double their representation. Arkansas, NDakota, Wyoming, WVirgina are especially luxe!

Legend for data columns:

  1. Percentage: #state entrants ÷ 1,476,770 TOTAL entrants
  2. Percentage: #state NMSF ÷ 16,227 TOTAL NMSF
  3. Ratio: column2 ÷ column1
  4. Name of state
4.9%    2.0%    |    41.0%       |   Massachusetts   
6.7%    3.3%    |    49.6%       |   NewJersey   
3.9%    2.0%    |    50.0%       |   Maryland    
2.2%    1.1%    |    50.5%       |   Connecticut 
4.3%    2.4%    |    56.3%       |   Virginia    
0.6%    0.4%    |    56.9%       |   DistrictofColumbia  
18.0%   12.5%   |       69.5%       |   California  
2.7%    2.0%    |       72.5%       |   Washington  
7.4%    6.2%    |       84.4%       |   NewYork 
9.0%    8.3%    |       93.0%       |   Texas   
0.3%    0.3%    |       93.1%       |   Delaware    
0.3%    0.3%    |       93.8%       |   Vermont 
4.1%    4.0%    |       98.1%       |   Pennsylvania    
1.2%    1.2%    |       98.6%       |   Oregon  
2.7%    2.8%    |       101.9%      |   Georgia 
0.4%    0.4%    |       102.3%      |   NewHampshire    
3.8%    4.3%    |       112.2%      |   Illinois    
1.3%    1.5%    |       115.0%      |   Colorado    
1.6%    1.9%    |       116.1%      |   Minnesota   
1.6%    2.0%    |       120.4%      |   Indiana 
0.8%    0.9%    |       122.6%      |   Kansas  
2.2%    2.8%    |       127.8%      |   NorthCarolina   
1.4%    1.9%    |       133.1%      |   OtherSelectionUnits 
2.8%    3.8%    |       135.3%      |   Ohio    
3.4%    4.8%    |       141.2%      |   Florida 
0.2%    0.3%    |       144.9%      |   RhodeIsland 
0.3%    0.5%    |       153.1%      |   Maine   
0.3%    0.4%    |       153.3%      |   Hawaii  
1.1%    2.0%    |       172.0%      |   Arizona 
1.1%    2.0%    |       178.5%      |   Tennessee   
1.1%    2.0%    |       187.2%      |   Missouri    
0.2%    0.5%    |       211.8%      |   Idaho   
0.5%    1.2%    |       240.1%      |   SouthCarolina   
0.2%    0.6%    |       240.6%      |   Nevada  
0.5%    1.3%    |       247.9%      |   Kentucky    
0.4%    1.1%    |       253.6%      |   Iowa    
0.4%    1.1%    |       264.4%      |   Oklahoma    
0.8%    2.1%    |       281.0%      |   Wisconsin   
0.5%    1.4%    |       284.0%      |   Alabama 
0.2%    0.6%    |       286.1%      |   Nebraska    
1.3%    3.6%    |       286.7%      |   Michigan    
0.2%    0.5%    |       303.6%      |   NewMexico   
0.1%    0.2%    |       306.2%      |   Alaska  
0.4%    1.3%    |       351.7%      |   Louisiana   
0.3%    0.9%    |       369.7%      |   Utah    
0.1%    0.3%    |       464.5%      |   Montana 
0.0%    0.3%    |       549.1%      |   SouthDakota 
0.1%    0.8%    |       703.8%      |   Mississippi 
0.1%    0.9%    |       1060.2%     |   Arkansas    
0.0%    0.2%    |       1593.9%     |   NorthDakota 
0.0%    0.2%    |       5920.1%     |   Wyoming 
0.0%    0.5%    |       #DIV/0!     |   WestVirginia
12

@mathyone

Because of the small sample size of DC (only 0.3% of all entrants), I wouldn’t overanalyze it. But I think it is fair to say that with historically the highest cutooff, DC is a darn tough place to make NMSF.

13

OK, but you also say that Connecticut is harder than Virginia, despite its lower cutoff. I don’t think this is a useful way to think about it. The cutoffs are the cutoffs and a higher score is harder to make.

Having a lousy educational system makes it harder to score high. Having to compete from an area with lousy schools against top performing schools/magnets in another part of the state makes it harder to qualify. But your analysis doesn’t take those things into account.

14

Couldn’t have said it better @mathyone

15

@mathyone

There’s no significant difference between a 51% and 56%. There’s only the BIG MESSAGE that in both CT & VA it’s tough to make NMSF, as compared to the other 50 states.

I don’t know why you are so hostile. I just crunched the numbers and provided a SIMPLE numerical sorting of the results. Your understanding of this ranking is as literal as that of people who think a school ranked #12 is better than a school ranked #13 on USNWR.

16

@aron Did you move to Mississippi, too? Good choice. Where are you living. Oxford here. I’m from here, so was just moving back; but NMSF has played a role in our housing and boarding school (or lack of boarding school) decisions.

17

@whitespace

It was a joke-- you know, joke? Lighten up.

18

The NMSF allocation is not based on the state’s population of candidates. It is based on the number of high school graduates in each state. This fact is publicized by NMSC and is reflected in the data.

Looking at the data on page 29 of the NM annual report, Missouri and Mass. each received 328 semifinalists in 2014. Mass had almost 48k test takers while MO had 13k. So Mass with nearly 4 times as many test takers was allotted the same number of NMSF.

19

“Your understanding of this ranking is as literal as that of people who think a school ranked #12 is better than a school ranked #13 on USNWR.” Tell that to the kids from Virginia who scored 220 and 221. That it would make no difference if they lived in CT?

20

@EarlVanDorn No, we did not. I was saying that tongue in cheek. That was my suggestion when we were sorting this process out 10 years ago with the oldest. D#1 was part of that demographic blip called the echo-boom, competition in Maryland was tough. But up rooting and moving high school girls is not for the faint of heart. Oxford is someplace I’d like visit soon, though.