<p>I don’t think the elite colleges and top prep schools need to worry about their future just yet. I do see the spiraling increase of applications to these schools level off in the near future, but it’s a long way from them worrying about filling their classes with quality students. On the other hand, as the COA keeps going up, the private schools are <em>more and more</em> running like businesses, so the competition of getting to the top among schools is getting intense. The low performers will be and actually are already struggling.</p>
<p>Regarding technology replacing “brick-and-mortar schools”, I don’t think that will happen any time soon either. More likely, we’ll see families using those tools to supplement their kids’ school education so they can be more competitive, and they will be used more by middle class families who are more likely to stay in the public school system and use any extra cash they may have to find tutors, consultants, online courses etc. To the wealthier and/or upper middle class busy professionals, elite schools will still be their primary source for their kids’ education. As both elite colleges and top prep schools are expanding their reach to low income families, the presence of kids from this segment will increase as well. So in summary, I think the composition in elite schools will be further “polarized” while the impact of technology to education will be more a meaningful way out for middle class families. </p>