<p>I don’t know - when I look at the 3 year chart on the vix, it looks like when it gets down to this level for any length of time, it goes significantly higher.</p>
<p>Anyone know where BCEagle is? People on the diet and exercise are starting to get concerned…</p>
<p>The Vix goes higher normally from this level?</p>
<p>Go farther out in time. In 2005, the Vix hit 11.</p>
<p>The summer does tend to have lower volatilities because people are on vacation.</p>
<p>Looks like volatilities in the SPY are still low in the Sept expiration.</p>
<p>No, and BCEagle91 should be on here with Google a recent purchase of his and the stock up 17 dollars today.</p>
<p>Which race was he running in ?</p>
<p>^^The macro environment in 2005 was not viewed in the same manner as today so I’m not certain that is a valid argument. I’m too lazy to look but I remember a week or two ago, where we had a vix - market divergence (market down and vix down) that following that the market went up for a week (last week).</p>
<p>I was not really making an argument. I just looked at history where the Vix was lower and it stayed low.</p>
<p>I can argue for a low vix. The QEs bring stability. The lack of public speculation can lead to a low vix.</p>
<p>I have no idea what the vix is going to do. It looked like it closed below 14. 13.70 is a pretty low number. I do know it is harder to make money with a 14 vix than it is with a 20+ vix. Too much stability and a lack of speculation are not a trader’s friends.</p>
<p>Of course, Europe or the Middle East can always blow up and add some spice to the markets.</p>
<p>I have been talking about low volume…</p>
<p>Today…lowest volume in Ten+ years.</p>
<p>[Volume</a> Crashes As S&P 500 Breaks Winning Streak And VIX Plunges To Five Year Lows | ZeroHedge](<a href=“404 | ZeroHedge”>Zerohedge)</p>
<p>[SPY,QQQ,TZA,TNA,IWM,SDS,FAS,FAZ</a> | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison | YAHOO! Finance](<a href=“http://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/SPY,QQQ,TZA,TNA,IWM,SDS,FAS,FAZ]SPY,QQQ,TZA,TNA,IWM,SDS,FAS,FAZ”>http://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/SPY,QQQ,TZA,TNA,IWM,SDS,FAS,FAZ)</p>
<p>I may buy tomorrow (depending on what I see in the morning) - the S&P seems to have good support at 1400</p>
<p>" I’m too lazy to look but I remember a week or two ago, where we had a vix - market divergence (market down and vix down) that following that the market went up for a week (last week)."</p>
<p>For most of today, the market and the vix were both down. And the market rallied quite a bit off its lows.</p>
<p>Where is the August sell off I am so used to?</p>
<p>Dont worry, itll come. Doug Kass just said youve seen the high of the year.</p>
<p>Don’t go into finance! [Nassim</a> Taleb: Stay Out of Finance! - CNBC](<a href=“http://www.cnbc.com/id/48681216]Nassim”>Nassim Taleb: Stay Out of Finance!)</p>
<p>
Bunk.</p>
<p>I’m sure that’s what they said about the current line-up of top managers when they were starting out. A couple quarters of beating the old school, and the money will flood their way.</p>
<p>I like what Taleb wrote, at least the parts that were written in English.</p>
<p>I think the opportunites will be smaller in finance for awhile. Things move in cycles so the finance field will pick up again. </p>
<p>There are going to be fewer players going forward and that does mean fewer winners. Not zero winners, just fewer winners.</p>
<p>What I see is that order flow is getting more and more concentrated in fewer hands. I don’t like that. Trading order flow is a huge deal. It is a lot easier to get an idea where stocks are going if you can see order flow.</p>
<p>Despite Knight, the markets are becoming more and more computerized. HFT is taking over more and more. And in the end it is going to be very interest</p>
<p>" Trading order flow is a huge deal. It is a lot easier to get an idea where stocks are going if you can see order flow."</p>
<p>Isn’t that only true for short term trading - day trading or less?</p>
<p>No. Not always.</p>
<p>For example, a firm comes in and does a covered write thousands of times. Let’s say the stock is 33 and the firm does the sept 35 buy/write. </p>
<p>It is bullish until that trade is unwound.</p>
<p>Or if firms start buying thousands of oct calls. Unless the firms are hedging…thst can be bullish for awhile. </p>
<p>It depends.</p>
<p>When firms came in and wanted to do buy/writes in larger than normal sizes, in relatively inactive options, I loved that. Because, believe it or not, the firms knew something. ;)</p>
<p>OK. I was going to buy S when it was 4.25 as a speculative play just a few days ago - unfortunately I didn’t.</p>
<p>My daughter is long S. :)</p>
<p>Any good stock picks going forward? I’m thinking of buying 9/22 spy 140 puts, selling 137 and 135 puts for roughly 0.</p>