<p>I don’t really like trading 600 dollar stocks. Just not my style. </p>
<p>I am not trading that much. I traded more when I had $25,000. :)</p>
<p>I am kind of an arbitrage guy. I look for mispricings of similar issues. Or at least, I used to do that. I take positions long and short too, but not like I used to do. </p>
<p>My gig is supposed to be over in about 3 weeks. Then I want to lose weight. :). I have 4 hour a day walking plans. I read where your daughter, BC Eagle 91, visited SF. SF is a great walking city. </p>
<p>Long AAPL, PBA, GG, QLD, GOOG, ORCL, NKE in decreasing position size order.
YTD gains of 17%.</p>
<p>Technically bullish on the $compq with a price target of 3,400.</p>
<p>Some encouraging signals were the Russell breaking out (it had been lagging), and copper breaking out. The feeling that I’m getting is that Central Bankers are trying to take the lead in printing because political systems are broken.</p>
<p>Of course I’m ready to go to cash in a heartbeat.</p>
<p>The world has fundamental problems. It seems that they are very hard to fix politically. I’m looking for companies that will do well, even in the midst of the political problems.</p>
<p>“The feeling that I’m getting is that Central Bankers are trying to take the lead in printing because political systems are broken.”</p>
<p>I agree. </p>
<p>“Of course I’m ready to go to cash in a heartbeat.”</p>
<p>I noticed. :)</p>
<p>“The world has fundamental problems. It seems that they are very hard
to fix politically.”</p>
<p>I agree with this too.</p>
<p>I guess we are getting QE3 next week. I haven’t changed my mind. I hates the QEs. I am probably just being selfish. </p>
<p>It is interesting that the stock market needs these QEs or the idea of
QEs to be stimulated. Reminds me of a drug addict.</p>
<p>I think the stock market volume during the week before labor day hit 6 or 7 year lows.</p>
<p>During the last couple of trading days, the volume has picked up. Volume is now awful instead of dreadful. :)</p>
<p>And it is true. Most investors don’t care about volume. And stock prices are rising.</p>
<p>Mark Hulbert said after the stock market hit the lows of 2009 that the stock market historically makes new highs after 4 years of a low like 2009., and that the market would make new highs by 2013. And Henry Blodget printed what Mark Hulbert wrote. I wrote to Henry Blodget and gave him a bad time for printing that crap. Henry Blodget was a gentleman about my scathing rebuttal.</p>
<p>So now we are 3 1/2 years later and the stock market does have a chance of making
new highs by March 2013. I don’t think Henry Blodget is going to remember me, but I remember me. :). So… A part of me doesn’t want to see new highs in the stock market before Apri 2013. I am talking about the djia or the s&p 500.</p>
<p>“China approved plans to build 2,018 kilometers (1,254 miles) of roads, spurring the biggest stock- market rally in almost eight months on signs the government is stepping up stimulus efforts to revive economic growth.”</p>
<p>“The government also backed nine sewage-treatment plants, five port and warehouse projects, and two waterway upgrades, according to statements on the website of the National Development and Reform Commission yesterday. No investment amounts were given.”</p>
<p>The difference between the $compq and $spx is striking. New highs were hit early in 2012. I’d guess that the techs helped the $compq while the financial stocks hurt the $spx.</p>
<p>Bill Gross is worried about inflation. The Fed is going to add liquidity. Looks like Europe is going to add liquidity. China is stimulating its economy.</p>
<p>Hmmmmm…</p>
<p>Financial stocks are still buried. CNBC was running the performance of some of the larger financial companies over the last 5 years or so and the numbers weren’t pretty.</p>
<p>C, Bac are down about 80 percent.</p>
<p>I have no idea how these QEs are going to play out. Maybe the QEs will work. We had inflation of approximately 7 percent a year for 10 years after the Great Depression and the country recovered. I would be buried though with that kind of inflation and I care about me. Somebody has to. :)</p>
<p>Household debt is declining. Home prices have stabilized. Home building is adding to GDP. Good things are slowly happening.</p>
<p>Own aapl 9/22 calls, spy, qqq & bac 10/20 calls, sold 10/20 cat puts, sold 9/22 jpm, ewy (a proxy for samsung), sbux puts, own utx, msft, nly, kmp, vz, t stock.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, I sold goog 9/22 calls the other day when it was up 13 pts and then it went up another 5 and ~7 the day after. Perhaps may sell 10/20 intc 23 puts.</p>
<p>I am long a little bit of several issues, but my holdings that I am not going to sell for years are amgn, gild, cvx, and pcg. I don’t care what the market does.</p>
<p>My bond holdings are much larger. </p>
<p>I am short various FB puts. They are the only puts that can hurt me. (I do think FB is dangerous, but I have to have some risk). I am short yelp, Msft, intc, pep, vz and anr puts. Except for Intc and anr, most of these puts are way out of the money and already trading for practically nothing.</p>
<p>Should be an interesting week with the Fed and Aapl. Right now, stock futures are doing nothing.</p>
<p>I like Henry Blodgett. I think he has a lot of good knowledge of the seamier sides of the market. I’m surprised he printed something about Hulbert who is usually wrong.</p>
<p>I can hear a rock crusher from my office. It’s prepping land near the old DEC/HP site. I don’t know if they’re building another parking lot or more buildings or a new housing development. This is in addition to the rock crusher that was used on the new strip mall near my office - but that piece of land is prepped and they can start construction soon.</p>
<p>There are signs of life - I wouldn’t mind looking at a place around here - it could get my commute down to a five-minute walk.</p>
<p>Housing would somewhat more expensive near where I work for a few reasons:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>It’s closer to Boston so people that live in NH and work in Boston would have a shorter commute. Of course it’s the worst of both worlds - you pay high NH property taxes and high MA income taxes.</p></li>
<li><p>The area where I work is in the best elementary school district in the city.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The downsides are far more traffic (especially just before the holidays), higher property taxes, higher crime rate (though ridiculously low by national standards).</p>
<p>The housing market stinks if you’re a seller - stuff is moving but not at good prices. I have a friend that has been trying to sell a high-end townhouse for several years. He’s underwater and I don’t think that’s going to change in the next five years.</p>
<p>“The downsides are far more traffic (especially just before the holidays), higher property taxes, higher crime rate (though ridiculously low by national standards).”</p>
<p>The traffic would not impact you that much because you can walk to work? Or do you drive a lot?</p>
<p>“The housing market stinks if you’re a seller - stuff is moving but not at good prices. I have a friend that has been trying to sell a high-end townhouse for several years. He’s
underwater and I don’t think that’s going to change in the next five years.”</p>
<p>Wow! Real estate really is local. Is that townhouse in Boston?</p>
<p>How long would it take to sell your place? </p>
<p>In SF, if a place is priced correctly, it will sell within a week. </p>
<p>Rents are exploding in SF. A friend of mine’s son was just hit with a 25 percent rent increase. </p>
<p>He is looking to move to a cheaper area in the city.</p>
<p>I was in SF Saturday, and even though I grew up in the city, and worked in the city,when I visit the city, I am always reminded that SF is a beautiful city.</p>
Henry Blodget was a gentleman about my scathing rebuttal.</p>