The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

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<p>They’ve been doing that to INTC for the last four years too.</p>

<p>One thing about INTC…the company’s earnings growth has slowed dramatically…</p>

<p>I looked at analyst projections for the next couple of years…and it looks like earnings are expected to grow in the mid single digits…</p>

<p>That is not sexy…</p>

<p>It can be better to have very little earnings…but fantasies about the future…</p>

<p>If Intc has accelerated earnings growth…my guess is the stock will run up…and it will go up before the earnings growth is realized…because people in the tech world…like you guys… will know this is happening before analysts and the public and will buy the stock.</p>

<p>[INTC</a> Analyst Estimates | Intel Corporation Stock - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“Intel Corporation (INTC) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Finance”>Intel Corporation (INTC) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Finance)</p>

<p>The amazing thing today was that the market - even NASDAQ - went up while AAPL went down. </p>

<p>A while back I got exercised out of half my INTC position at 26 (didnt look like it would ever go above 26 :slight_smile: ) Bought it back at 26.95, but what a mess that will be at tax time. This is the problem with selling calls on portfolio positions. If exercised you create a taxable event which really messes up the after tax return.</p>

<p>“Ok…Doct, BCEagle91, others,…what do you think of Pay ( VeriFone) and Nxpi?”</p>

<p>I really don’t know anything about these. What I find the most interesting of anything is investing in natural gas - ung? something else? but it just keeps going lower, lower and lower.</p>

<p>NJres, Plus…you buy the stock back at 26.95.</p>

<p>It is going to be an incredible mess come tax time.</p>

<p>I bought Nxpi. It dropped…I sold 40 percent of my position at a loss…</p>

<p>And I just found out that the the loss I took was added to the basis of my existing position.</p>

<p>And this is the key part…my short term loss has become a long term loss because I did not sell the rest of my position in a year.</p>

<p>That sucks…</p>

<p>So where is my NXPI and Pay analysis? :)</p>

<p>Steer clear of UNG, contango finds a way for it not to follow natural gas movements in price</p>

<p>Well…I have a friend who has traded natural gas and he says inventory levels are at 77 percent of capacity instead of the usual 30 percent for this time of year. There is a good chance that natural gas is just going to be burned away…</p>

<p>Having said that…things always look bleak at bottoms…</p>

<p>The other thing is natural gas prices are higher in future months…when there is more need for natural gas…</p>

<p>Yes… UNG is an awful product.</p>

<p>Anybody selling in May and going away?</p>

<p>^^^Sounds like my plan… ^^</p>

<p>Well, here is an interesting tibit from Ken Fisher’s book: from 1925 thru 2005, the average return in the market for June - August = 4.7%, for the entire year, its 12.2%. in other words, the saying is bs.</p>

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That’s what I should do… but I am in it for the long haul! :smiley: My combined portfolio value hit an alltime high today. Not due to any great skill on my part. A quick check of history shows that although the major indices are a little below their recent highs, the fixed income portion is a lot higher than it was April 2.</p>

<p>Ken Fisher is a hack! I must get 2-3 mailings from him every few months</p>

<p>What about September?</p>

<p>I don’t think you are supposed to buy until the middle of October…</p>

<p>Qdogpa…with all your negativity…I am surprised you have any stocks to sell.</p>

<p>My portfolio alsomhit an alltime high, but considering we have contributed to it evry 2 weeks for ever, it should be… ;)</p>

<p>Dstark, i am more cash/short then long…But still love the action. ;)</p>

<p>Please forgive my spelling, it is the friggin’ Ipad, not the Manhattan</p>

<p>[September</a> is the cruelest month - MarketWatch](<a href=“http://articles.marketwatch.com/2011-08-31/commentary/30701260_1_stock-market-hulbert-financial-digest-pattern]September”>http://articles.marketwatch.com/2011-08-31/commentary/30701260_1_stock-market-hulbert-financial-digest-pattern)</p>

<p>Qdogpa…you have shorts…interesting…most people don’t short…</p>

<p>"Ken Fisher is a hack! I must get 2-3 mailings from him every few months "</p>

<p>I get calls from his firm everyday also however, he has been the most accurate prognosticator of the market - 64% (there are data firms that keep track of this stuff and have rated virtually every one of these guys - from Fisher to Birynyi to Cramer to whoever) and his data is not from a “hack”. All those sayings when you look at the data are bs and anybody who believes them is making a serious mistake.</p>