<p>Doct…Then why are you selling in May and going away…</p>
<p>Nevermind…other poster…</p>
<p>Doct, if he is so good, why is he sell g me his ideas for a steak dinner at Del Friscos?</p>
<p>Its good to see that some people like the action. I could care less about the action in general. The only action I care about is that which makes money. By the way as far as intc is concerned, back in the late 90’s, between intc and aol, I made enough to buy a vacation home.</p>
<p>Well he’s good enough to be a billionaire so whether he buys you a steak or not - he can afford it.</p>
<p>He sells you his ideas, it cost him nothing!!! Many shysters made millions selling their ideas…</p>
<p>" By the way as far as intc is concerned, back in the late 90’s, between intc and aol, I made enough to buy a vacation home."</p>
<p>Nice…</p>
<p>He sold those ideas in Forbes and that’s what his accuracy is based on. As far as the statistic on that “myth”, you can collect the data from yahoo, and do all kinds of statistical analyses on it. The saying as are most of the sayings is garbage. I think the main point you should look at is the 64% number - that’s 64% for the most accurate forecaster - so anybody who thinks that anybody else or that they know what’s going to happen is fooling themselves.</p>
<p>Doct…you brought up Fisher…</p>
<p>That 64 percent number…what does that mean?</p>
<p>[Ken</a> Fisher Chronicles - CXO Advisory](<a href=“http://www.cxoadvisory.com/3190/individual-gurus/ken-fisher/]Ken”>Ken Fisher Chronicles - CXO Advisory)</p>
<p>“Ken Fisher is generally flexible in his assessment of market value, keying off potential demand for stocks, globalization and the consensus expert view, which he sees as generally inaccurate. He has been largely clear with his guidance.
Ken Fisher correctly counseled readers to stay away from stocks from the beginning of 2001 through mid-2002, but was a bit too soon into the market in early July 2002. He was right about general market direction, but overly overoptimistic, for 2004-2007. During late 2007 through early 2009, he was dramatically over-optimistic. For the balance of 2009 and most of 2010, he was correctly bullish. For 2011, he was correctly neutral.
Ken Fisher’s forecast sample is moderate, as is therefore confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.”</p>
<p>And that is not his real life performance track record…</p>
<p>I have no idea what his real money track record is…</p>
<p>I still would rather know more about VeriFone…than Fisher…</p>
<p>That’s all well and fine. The bottom line is selling in may and going away is bs. I doubt anybody is going to give you any more info on verifone than you’ll find more accurately yourself. You’re right about numbers that I quoted above except for the average returns over different months of the year. Since you’re a seasoned trader, you know it makes a bigger difference to know when to buy and HOW MUCH TO BUY, when to sell and control of risk. You’ll never go bellyup if you understand these things.</p>
<p>I am not going to sell in May and go away…because I am not long enough…and what I own…I own for years anyway…</p>
<p>And long term gains are better than short term gains…</p>
<p>But…</p>
<p>I don’t get Fisher’s comments…</p>
<p>Must depend on the time frame…</p>
<p><a href=“http://squirrelers.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Monthly_Returns_40_yr.png[/url]”>http://squirrelers.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Monthly_Returns_40_yr.png</a></p>
![http://squirrelers.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Monthly_Returns_40_yr.png[/url]](http://squirrelers.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Monthly_Returns_40_yr.png%5B/url%5D){kind=link}
<p>If I’m going to sell in May and go away, I don’t care about independent month’s averages during the summer, I care about the total return in the summer. Also the concern should be not just the average return but the distribution of returns which would impact trading decisions. The myth was probably started when our economy was very different than today and when market access was far more difficult than today when it is a quick click on a phone or computer. Other than recessions etc, the market movement is random with a bias to the upside over longer periods.</p>
<p>That being said, although I’m older than most of you and more concerned with income production than capital appreciation, I plan on adding to my holdings depending on the gdp report and if the market starts going down in May, I’ll be adding aggressively while some of you will be selling.</p>
<p>I don’t see anybody really selling on here…</p>
<p>But for the last 40 years it is not a myth…</p>
<p>The market’s been muted May thru Sept…</p>
<p>That doesn’t mean the future will be similar to the past…</p>
<p>I don’t know wny these discussions get so personal…</p>
<p>Fisher used a time frame to debunk something…but if you look at the last 40 years there was nothing to debunk.</p>
<p>There are other seasonalities that have biases too.</p>
<p>If you are really a trader and not an investor…you might care about these seasonalities.</p>
<p>Long term investors don’t need to care.</p>
<p>Market movement is not always random.</p>
<p>And there are some exceptional people…some quants for example…that have come up with many ways to make money…Some have come up with correlations that the vast majority don’t see.</p>
<p>I am using “exceptional” only in the trading sense…</p>
<p>Some of these people can be pricks.</p>
<p>I am not one of these quants…</p>
<p>I’ve got to leave for work, and I’ll look at it this weekend but I don’t think you’re looking at the seasonality correctly.</p>
<p>I know what I am doing. :)</p>
<p>This is a pretty good book.</p>
<p>[Amazon.com:</a> Stock Trader’s Almanac 2012 (Almanac Investor Series) (9781118048696): Jeffrey A. Hirsch, Yale Hirsch: Books](<a href=“http://www.amazon.com/Stock-Traders-Almanac-Investor-Series/dp/1118048695]Amazon.com:”>http://www.amazon.com/Stock-Traders-Almanac-Investor-Series/dp/1118048695)</p>
<p>Now that I am older…I want more edge than 51 or 52 percent…</p>
<p>A couple of comments…</p>
<p>"“Historical price patterns continue to work because human nature doesn’t change, and neither does the law of supply and demand. Study past successful stocks if you want to know what future ones will look like. Stock Trader’s Almanac is all about historical facts.”
—William J. O’Neil, Chairman and founder, Investor’s Business Daily</p>
<p>“All my almost four decades in professional investing, I’ve found this annual tour de force fascinating. There is a lot of provocative here to whet your whistle and adrenaline-rush your curiosity. If you don’t find something here that tickles your mind, you probably don’t have one.”
—Ken Fisher, CEO and founder, Fisher Investments, 25-year Forbes columnist, and author of The Only Three Questions That Count and How to Smell a Rat"</p>
<p>I am picking picking and choosing what I post…</p>
<p>"The Almanac is often quoted in the media and is famously known for a few key indicators that you follow. What are these indicators and how can investors trade them?
Two of our widely known indicators are the January Barometer and the “Best Six Months”. The January Barometer simply states: “As January goes, so goes the year.” The January Barometer can only be applied to markets going back to the passage of the 20th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, the “lame duck” amendment. It made January a politically significant month in addition to the importance of being the first month of the New Year. Strength in January is a positive sign that can be used to increase long market exposure. Down Januarys on the other hand are negative omens. Every down January since 1950 was followed by a new or continuing bear market, a 10% or greater correction, or a flat year. A substantial amount of our research and trading advice revolves around the market’s “Best Six Months”. What our research has shown is that the market makes the bulk of its gains in just six months of the year, November through April, hence the roots of “Sell in May”. Traders and investors can enjoy the bulk of the gains with half the risk of buy and hold. The key to the “Best Six Months” for investors is to look for technical buying opportunity in October ahead of the usually bullish period and a selling opportunity in April or May. "</p>
<p>Agreed…</p>
<p>There are other seasonalities too…besides sell in May and go away…</p>
<p>What are you agreeing to qdogpa?</p>
<p>Sell in may…the risk/reward is not in one’s favor…</p>