The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

Parent Cafe
4061

<p>I like your post sewhappy. </p>

<p>“Did figure out we are saving with company contributions slightly over 25 percent of gross income. It’s kind of hard to do it. We aren’t taking the vacations or driving the cars our neighbors are but you start to get mesmerized by the pile, a sickness in itself, I fear.”</p>

<p>I see truth in your post. The whole post.</p>

<p>I understand that comparing ourselves to others is part of the human condition. I think I am pretty good at not comparing myself with others but instead I focus on my needs and wants. It helps that I think
differently than most. :)</p>

<p>One thing I have learned in life is that what others do with their lives doesn’t really affect my life. And we are all here temporarily. We share a time. So it is silly to concern ourselves (myself) with what others are doing.</p>

<p>I had dinner yesterday with a guy who is worth probably close to $100 million. I am not going to get there unless inflation goes incredibly crazy. :slight_smile: The money would be nice. I am not going to lie. :slight_smile: The guy, my
friend, is a very nice guy. He has issues. I don’t want his issues. I have my own. Lol. And the guy I sat next to at the same dinner, he has cancer. He is in trouble. I don’t want his issues either.</p>

<p>I also have two friends that have nothing. Pretty much nothing. I don’t think there are too many people in this country that want what they have. </p>

<p>So, anyway, we should just stay true to ourselves and live the way we want. </p>

<p>“It’s confusing what to do and when I think very long about it I just want to go barf because I feel so greedy and money grubbing thinking so much about our money and growing our money, etc.”</p>

<p>I agree that thinking about money can make somebody feel greddy, etc…
I am sure this is part of my personality, but in real life this is less of an issue than on this board. I don’t know how I get swept up in talking about finance and economics so much here. :)</p>

<p>I have rarely written about other subjects that interest me in real life. Usually my original post is the only one. Lol</p>

4062

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<p>May be I misunderstand the statement. That is kind low, isn’t it? </p>

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How true. We just spent a week at Grand Rose Hall. before we got there, we were thinking this adult only resort must be full of old people like us. To our total surprise, more than 50% of the guests are young people including many in their 20s.</p>

<p>To the original topic - I got out of the bond fund in my 401k last Thursday. Should have paid more attention to the 10 year note and got our when it started to come up from 1.4%. Within the limitation of the 401k plan, most of my $$ are now in the S & P 500 index fund.</p>

4063

<p>There is no original topic…just multiple topics. :)</p>

<p>“How true. We just spent a week at Grand Rose Hall. before we got there, we were thinking this adult only resort must be full of old people like us. To our total surprise, more than 50% of the guests are young people including many in their 20s.”</p>

<p>I was partially joking and I told someone, " If we can cherry pick and take housing and autos out of the picture, our kids are living better than us. They are also more poised and mature than we were at the same age". When I look at these kids, well they aren’t kids, I wonder how they are going to look at us?</p>

<p>I used to look at my mom, who is pretty smart, but not educated, and think, ok say, “You just don’t get it”.</p>

<p>I am pretty sure there are some pretty bright kids out there that think
the same thing about us, and in some cases, they are correct.</p>

<p>Anyway, this actually affects investing. I wonder how the auto industry is going to do going forward. I don’t see the love of cars our generation had. Also, social networking is different. This young lady threw an event for 1500 people and organized the event by the use of the internet. She got 1500 people physically together by using cyber space.</p>

4064

<p>One thing I don’t read much is that estate taxes have been cut dramatically. Maybe I am just missing those articles. Only about 7500 estates had an estate tax. I think cutting the estate tax was a mistake, especially because a lot of that wealth was never taxed.</p>

<p>Anyway, the rate is 40 percent, but since the tax is based on the rate times the estate 's taxable value, and the estate’s taxable is indexed to inflation, over time, estates are going to be taxed a lot less.</p>

<p>The 5 milliion dollar exemption is going to increase over time. If inflation is 3 percent a year in 24 years the exemption is going to be 10 million. And then if you are married, the exemption is really double, and then there are other loopholes…</p>

4065

<p>The estate exemption is indexed to inflation. Oops.</p>

4066

<p>Well, the people in that estate tax bracket will all put their estates into trusts anyway to avoid estate tax. Once you get into that level of wealth you usually know how to protect it. As they say in Downton, “the money is all tied up.” =)</p>

<p>BTW Dstark, your post 4061 touched my heart. I so understand where SewHappy is coming from and your answer seemed lyrical and lovely to me. Especially in a money thread; thank you.</p>

4067

<p>Hugcheck,</p>

<p>You are right, and thanks.</p>

4068

<p>I will never get over Congress allowing a year to go by with no estate tax (2010), a year when George Steinbrenner conveniently died, as did an even wealthier multi billionaire. Talk about great estate planning! The randomness of it is mind boggling.</p>

4069

<p>NJres, lol.</p>

<p>So what are we doing here for the debt ceiling?</p>

<p>I bought the 143 march puts that expire mar 28 and sold twice as many 143 puts that expire this week…</p>

<p>I may adjust this ratio. If this weeks puts expire worthless, I am going to sell the next weeks puts in all likelihood.</p>

<p>I would like to end up owning the march puts for free coming into the debt ceiling. There is risk that I can lose on this trade.</p>

<p>I like the trade because volatilities are low. I am hoping volatility will rise and spys will trade at a price I like as we move towards the debt ceiling.</p>

<p>My former partner is doing a variation of this but is buying and selling puts one to one.</p>

<p>I can’t believe how many typos there were in this post. :)</p>

4070

<p>I bought 2/16 145 puts, sold 2/16 142 puts, sold 2/16 137 puts</p>

4071

<p>“I bought the 143 march puts that expire mar 28 and sold twice as many 143 puts that expire this week…”</p>

<p>the march 143’s are 2.9, 1//11 143’s are .12. I guess you’re going to be selling these each week to cover the cost of the 143’s + hoping that the march 143’s increase in value?</p>

4072

<p>^^I guess if spy drops below 143, you’re assigned and have a protective put through march.</p>

4073

<p>Yes…on your first post. 4071. The Mar 143 puts don’t have to actually increase in value. They just have to lose less value than what I make on the short puts.</p>

<p>I am doing this trade on a ratio…so I will be long below 143 if spy gets there this week. I am only protected on half the short puts. I am not that long overall so I will worry about that if and when the time comes.</p>

4074

<p>yeah I forgot - I see that you sold 2x the number of puts</p>

4075

<p>No problem…</p>

4076

<p>A history of income tax rates…</p>

<p>I know some people don’t feel that good about the tax rates…so…</p>

<p>Maybe the new higher rates will affect labor and capital markets…</p>

<p>I think the increase the payroll tax is worse for the economy than the increase in income tax rates…</p>

<p>I think this because of history and economics…</p>

<p>It is amazing how low stock market volumes are right now. I thought
with a new year, maybe, maybe, volume would pick up.</p>

<p>The qqq volume was 26 million today. IWM volume was worse. Those
are really low volumes. Option volatilities are low into earnings season. Where is the speculation?</p>

<p>Anyway…
[THE</a> HISTORY OF TAXES: Here’s How High Today’s Rates Really Are - Business Insider](<a href=“THE HISTORY OF TAXES: Here's How High Today's Rates Really Are”>THE HISTORY OF TAXES: Here's How High Today's Rates Really Are)</p>

4077

<p>[VIX</a> risk: Debt fight may mean ?fear index? rebound - Market Extra - MarketWatch](<a href=“http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fear-index-vix-faces-rebound-on-debt-fight-2013-01-07]VIX”>VIX risk: Debt fight may mean ‘fear index’ rebound - MarketWatch)</p>

4078

<p>So are you planning on using these products and which ones?</p>

4079

<p>I doubt I will trade the products…</p>

<p>I don’t understand them enough. They don’t look liquid. Everyday the vix rolls and I think the daily roll is already priced in the products.</p>

<p>The March volatility is already higher than jan and feb.</p>

<p>When you trade options with premium, you are already making a volatility play anyway. It isn’t a pure volatility play, but volatility plays a part. </p>

<p>The trade I did, the volatility in the march puts is 19. The vol in the
jans is 13. That is not ideal, but I agree with the article that volatility will be higher in March which will be good for the trade because I am long Mar options, .and the jans expire in 4 days…so the volatility of those options are of less concern.</p>

<p>The problem with this trade is I am actually slightly short. If SPY rallies a few points this trade could suck. The trade fits as a counter to the rest of my portfolio, so I will take the chance the trade doesn’t suck.</p>

4080

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<p>I’ve always told the kids, “REAL trouble is a problem that money can’t solve.” Poor health is a big one…puts your other “troubles” in perspective.</p>