<p>I see Fib support at $491 and resistance at $531.</p>
<p>On mistakes: if it’s a fundamental play, then I hang on until my threshold of pain (or stop). If a technical play, then I get out and it’s a mistake. Hanging onto a losing position for a long time messes with your mind.</p>
<p>If I have a losing position, I just don’t check them for months. It makes it far less painful, and I tell myself, “Sure, we’re in it for the long haul!”</p>
<p>Actually, I just checked my crummy stock pick (Ford), and it has gone up about 30% or so since the last time I checked. So maybe it’s not as bad as I thought.</p>
<p>^^I have to give this some thought. I typically do not like to sell these type of call spreads but I have the other call spread so I’ve got to work it out and see what happens.</p>
<p>From my perspective, aapl is a long term fundamental problem and a short term technical problem. The choices of what to do are more involved with options and there are many ways of playing this as Dstark has pointed out which do not exist by just owning the stock.</p>
<p>China’s trade numbers were much better than estimates and unemployment numbers were only slightly negative so good environment for a stick save.</p>
<p>Bought the 1/19 510 - 500 aapl put for 1.9, Will probably look to sell some more otm 1/19 puts if aapl drops further to get back some of the 1.9 that made my risk - reward that much worse.</p>
<p>we will begin to see better employment numbers because Obamacare will make employers hire only part time workers or reduce hours of existing workers. Employers will need to hire more part time workers to avoid paying for health insurance for full time workers. Also, the economy is improving especially in housing which hires a lot of hourly workers.</p>
<p>I’m probably wrong but if I thought it was particularly likely, I wouldn’t be buying more protection. It had popped up to 555 a little more than a week ago. If they have decent earnings, revenue on the 23rd it might get back up there. Lots of the big folks have it and may be accumulating going into earnings.</p>
<p>I’d guess that AAPL goes higher for options expirations. There are a ton of ITM puts right now; an quick eyeball seems to indicate fewer ITM calls at higher levels. A max pain analysis would be interesting. It’s hard to do these with an eyeball look because Apple is so active with a very wide price range.</p>
<p>You’re right of course. If I can lower my breakeven, I improve my risk reward. I’ll have to look at your suggestion at lunch. I’ve never tried what you’re suggesting. As I mentioned I wouldn’t typically sell a lower strike call and buy back a higher strike price call but maybe in this situation, its the wise thing to do.</p>
<p>" As I mentioned I wouldn’t typically sell a lower strike call and buy back a higher strike price call but maybe in this situation, its the wise thing to do."</p>
<p>You kind of did the above already in an indirect way.</p>
<p>If you graph out your pnl based on different stock prices…You will see that around 535 you start getting upside…</p>
<p>I think the numbers work better doing what I mentioned compared to what you have on and for what you want to do…</p>
<p>You can play with it…you can change the strikes too.</p>