<br>
<br>
<p>If I have a bad loss, I close things out, take a break and then ease back in later. I also don’t trade well when there’s stress elsewhere (job, family, health).</p>
<p>The coach probably won’t work.</p>
<p>I do the same as you doct. Trade smaller when I lose. </p>
<p>" A lot of people bet more when they are losing to make up for their lose"</p>
<p>Yes they do. Not good.</p>
<p>Yeah you’re probably right. Back in 2008, I had sold a lot of my positions except for in 1 401k account. I had a bet with a coworker as to who would sell closest to the bottom. I won. I sold 2 days before the bottom - fortunately I got back in within a few weeks. I couldn’t help myself - the pain was too great even though I knew it was a mistake to sell. A coach wouldn’t have helped. Maybe if I had less access to the account and had a financial planner with a cooler head, I wouldn’t have done this.</p>
<p>“Maybe if I had less access to the account and had a financial planner with a cooler head, I wouldn’t have done this.”</p>
<p>I try not to look at my long term stuff. Because some of my short term stuff is mixed in with my long term stuff it is unavoidable at times. I am amazed I bought some of the crap I bought. :)</p>
<p>Selling lows and buying highs happens… It sucks. </p>
<p>It bugs me that you don’t make anything in your aapl trade between 510 and 535. You are done with my analysis of your aapl trade?</p>
<p>If so, and I don’t have a problem if you are done with me, don’t read the following. </p>
<p>If you buy 1 510 call sell 2 535 calls and buy 1 560 call…you can make
money between 515 and 555. You can lose $500 or so. At 520 and 550,
you would make $500. At 535, you would max out at $2500. There are commissions and there would be a cost to get out.</p>
<p>You can also buy a 505 put sell 2 485 puts and buy a 465 put. This would cut some of your downside risk…at a cost…of a few hudred bucks.</p>
<p>Both these ideas could cost money and not work. The put spread is probably a better idea because of your downside risk. If aapl rallies next week, the cost of the of the put spreads should drop.</p>
<p>It bugs me too! I’m not done. I’m just tired. When I looked casually at what you had before, I didn’t feel comfortable selling my put protection. I’ll take another look at this and what you have above.</p>
<p>Ok…</p>
<p>Ok doct, I can see why you are having so much trouble with my prior suggesstions on your apple trade. I am increasing your costs. Forget what I wrote yesterday. I like what you did better than my suggestions. I am getting old. :)</p>
<p>The put spreads I mentioned today 505-485-465. I like those, if the price is right. Of course, If aapl rallies you will have plenty of options.</p>
<p>You did a good job saving 25 bucks.</p>
<p><a href=“America’s Productivity Climbs, but Wages Stagnate - The New York Times”>America’s Productivity Climbs, but Wages Stagnate - The New York Times;
<p>“Wages have fallen to a record low as a share of America’s gross domestic product. Until 1975, wages nearly always accounted for more than 50 percent of the nation’s G.D.P., but last year wages fell to a record low of 43.5 percent. Since 2001, when the wage share was 49 percent, there has been a steep slide.”</p>
<p>Just read that - similar theme to Mauldin’s piece.</p>
<p>Basically I feel forced into the stock market and that’s what I’m telling my son.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Read more: [Doug</a> Kass Bearish S&P 500 Call - Business Insider](<a href=“Doug Kass Bearish S&P 500 Call”>Doug Kass Bearish S&P 500 Call)</p>
<p>There are too many people who are bearish about the debt ceiling cliff etc. and its impact on the market.</p>
<p>Interesting take on aapl: [Apple:</a> Get Ready For January 18 - Seeking Alpha](<a href=“Apple: Get Ready For January 18 (NASDAQ:AAPL) | Seeking Alpha”>Apple: Get Ready For January 18 (NASDAQ:AAPL) | Seeking Alpha)</p>
<p>The problem with that article is that it only looked at the calls.</p>
<p>A proper analysis would look at puts and calls and compute a max pain figure.</p>
<p>I can eyeball most option chains but not AAPL - there are too many spike points.</p>
<p>I don’t know for sure, but my gut is telling me that the maximum pain is the stock going up. I think there is a calculator somewhere that does this calculation.</p>
<p>Max pain is $550.</p>
<p>I’m practicing my card counting and going gambling this week, just so I can help even out my stock market losses.</p>
<p>At least you get free wine in the casinos.</p>
<p>“If you buy 1 510 call sell 2 535 calls and buy 1 560 call…you can make
money between 515 and 555. You can lose $500 or so. At 520 and 550,
you would make $500. At 535, you would max out at $2500. There are commissions and there would be a cost to get out.”</p>
<p>Doing this and combining with the positions I already have, my maximum gain above 535 to 560 = 13.05 - 1.9 (1/19 put spread expiration) - 10 (1/25 put spread) = 1.15. Past 565, the most I make is 6.15. My current position makes money above 553.65 with a maximum gain of 11.35 vs the 6.15 adding to the position. Of course now I lose below 553.65 vs making something above ~534.</p>
<p>“Max pain is $550.” - how did you calculate it?</p>
<p>I used an online calculator. There are lots of them out there but I was looking for a free one. My eyeball last week said that Max Pain should be a lot higher than $520. The website just confirmed it.</p>
<p>I wrote a Max Pain calculator a few years ago but I don’t know where I put it.</p>
<p>Doct, the idea of the call spreads is to give up some profit potential above 550ish for the chance to lose less with the stock lower.</p>
<p>You may not want to do this.</p>
<p>Your analysis is right.</p>
<p>There is no free lunch.</p>
<p>I have no idea what the article says so I just deleted the rest of my post.</p>