<p>I’m listening to the talking heads. There’s some guy on cnbc who says aapl is going down 50 - 80% from its peak. Looks like this stock is over.</p>
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<p>I love a good talking head! My favorite talking head truism goes something like this… “If AAPL is going to 400 we have to get through 475 first!” And everyone nods their heads… LOL… So this guy says AAPL is going down… 50 to 80 percent??? That is quite a range isn’t it?? From it’s peak? Did you notice that AAPL has already gone down 29% from it’s peak? High print was around 705, low print today was 498.5. We will see, but it’s easy to get bearish after a big decline.</p>
<p>I guess I better work out now so I can be back for the FB announcement.</p>
<p>Wonderful day! Bought the 1/25 aapl 490 - 475 put spread, sold vlo,fb that were expiring on 1/19.</p>
<p>Just an observation. I am amazed at how well the market indices have held up while AAPL has declined 31% from it’s highs. AAPL is the biggest component of many of the broad market indices, including the S&P 500.</p>
<p>Well - its weighting is getting less and less</p>
<p>Yeah…NJres, I think that is a good observation.</p>
<p>Nice trade on fb, doct.</p>
<p>So - is it time to buy more aapl or would it be catching a falling knife?</p>
<p>Well…you just got shorter…</p>
<p>On 2 contracts - I’ve been thinking about getting long if it drops much further</p>
<p>What is the catalyst to change the momentum in the stock?</p>
<p>earnings-----</p>
<p>Are the calls cheap? Might be worth buying some OOMs for this Friday if they really cheap.</p>
<p>Those calls do look cheap.</p>
<p>Ok…</p>
<p>I think earnings will be very good…</p>
<p>So the stock will go up on earnings?</p>
<p>I think apple stock is over owned. The markets it plays in are getting more and more
competitive. Aapl make half its money on the iphone which has competition. I don’t think the stock is cheap at 10 times earnings. It’s a value trap. I don’t like its business model.</p>
<p>Yet…it may go up on earnings. The lower the stock goes before earnings, the more I like the stock.</p>
<p>I say the above without knowing what aapl has in development. My opinion is based on limited and imperfect knowledge.</p>
<p>Now your turn doct. Besides an earnings announcement…which is
playable as a trader, what do you see for appl?</p>
<p>I’m curious, when you guys do your transactions, what sort of dollar amounts do you do your transactions in? It seems like unless you’re moving thousands of dollars at a time the trade commissions will eat up a decent chunk of your earnings (or make the losses hurt that much more).</p>
<p>I ask because I’ve got a decent sized chunk of money saved up at the moment, and it doesn’t look like I’ll be needing it within the next few years, so I’d like to do something other than just earn a fraction of a percent in interest or leave it in a S&P ETF.</p>
<p>Also, Lergnom made an interesting post [url=<a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/15336018-post491.html]here[/url”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/15336018-post491.html]here[/url</a>] on Apple a little earlier today.</p>
<p>I see much the same as you and I would only play it as a trade through earnings or maybe only to the day of earnings before the announcement. I agree with your assessment of the stock but it may be too pessimistic.</p>
<p>I think the stock is being manipulated somewhat to shake out weak hands. A lot of hedge funds have pared back their positions and shows like cnbc are completely negative on the stock - even Cramer who has been the biggest aapl bull around doesn’t like it here. This is making me somewhat bullish with all the negativity surrounding this.</p>
<p>Peoole did not have to react to the apple story, but for some reason traders did.</p>
<p>I doubt the 550 calls are affecting the stock when the stock is trading at 485. :)</p>
<p>The more people are negative, the more likely the stock will pop on earnings. When did Cramer get negative on aapl? Where was the stock trading?</p>
<p>Last night’s show.</p>