<p>A friend of mine picked up a bunch of shares (400 I think) AH at $457. I guess he’s either going to be a hero or not. Sounds like a decent play.</p>
<p>457.00?</p>
<p>Did you ask to see the confirm? :)</p>
<p>Nok is down. Rimm is down.</p>
<p>Aapl is down 58 points. Wow.</p>
<p>No, he announced this as he did it AH yesterday.</p>
<p>He’s given me many good picks over the year and he’s done the catch a falling knife many times. In general, I think that he’d be better off not doing that. I’ve tried it myself and it usually doesn’t work that well. I think that waiting for two - three days works out better.</p>
<p>edit: looks like he is in the red this morning.</p>
<p>Your friend has balls and he is doing well…at this second.</p>
<p>I caught falling knives all through the dotcom bubble - my wounds took a long time to heal. I did buy the q’s this morning however.</p>
<p>Well, believe me, he’s had some disasters too. He got killed on MCP by earnings recently and tried to daytrade out of his losses there. The rest of us told him that he should have just dumped them. He tried this on CREE a while back too and that didn’t turn out well. His usual plays are companies with good fundamentals and good technical setups where he just rides the trend for many, many months. He’s a good day-trader too. But he usually doesn’t have the time (he’s a manager of a project that’s ramping up quickly so he’s busy hiring people and doing meetings. I think trying to catch the falling knife is where he gets into trouble.</p>
<p>The resiliency of the broader market is… frightening. I don’t own AAPL, got lucky with some small positions (IBM and FFIV), own some QQQ calls but not the ETF, so my net worth is increasing. It’s ok to be lucky and admit it 
just bad juju to brag about it.</p>
<p>It may be time to buy some of those Dstark butterfly thingies!</p>
<p>The feeling that I have is that money that goes out of one stock looks for another place to put it which keeps the indices up.</p>
<p>I sold 6 of the 440 puts so far. I have a bid on the 450-455 call spread but it moved away.</p>
<p>The call open interest is so small with the stock at 460…I don’t think the options are going to move the stock much.</p>
<p>S&P 500 index touches 1500 (!!!) and the way the market has marched up almost daily since Jan 2 cries out for a correction. You will hear the pundits crying out… market is overdue, toppy, fumes… etc… and they will be right, the only question is … when. I will let you know when I load up 100% long. That will be the sure sign of a market top.</p>
<p>BCE - that is one component of my mental market model; “fast” money chasing things around. Don’t forget bearish money (new short positions) chasing whatever is going down as well as the long money bailing out. AAPL is a tough one to visualize because there is so much going on there - huge huge amounts of institutional money invested in the stock, equally (or more?) huge amounts of highly leveraged money in the stock and options, huge component of the index so has a dramatic effect on futures NQ and etf QQQ, and even a large % of the S&P. Sorry to keep beating this ailing horse, but look at that Dow index, you know, the one with no AAPL in it. That kind of fits with your model BCE… burned money getting out of AAPL, where does it go? If you buy almost anything you are effectively reinvesting in AAPL! Except US treasuries (too boring) or… the Dow 30.</p>
<p>I think that some of that AAPL money is going into GOOG.</p>
<p>…some into FB. Compare the daily chart of AAPL & FB for the past 3 months, look at the volume. So, I think, some AAPL money rotated into FB.</p>
<p>Where is aapl going to close tomorrow, doct? What price range?</p>
<p>I don’t know - you tell me! I’m too old to screw around with aapl and goog.</p>
<p>Yet, you are screwing around with aapl and goog. You are younger than you think. :)</p>
<p>I have no idea where aapl is going to close so I don’t think I am going to do any butterflies.</p>
<p>I am surprised aapl is back below 455.</p>
<p>I sold 3 of the remaining 5 call spreads when aapl was around 461.</p>
<p>I was out for a couple of hours. I read your post, doct. Aapl is 450. Wow…</p>
<p>Yup, it’s en fuego…on the falling side like a comet hurtling down from the sky…</p>
<p>Did you see the Nasdaq chart? Has the triple top been formed? Is it on a leg down?</p>