<p>[S&P</a> 500 Index (1960 - Present Weekly) - Charting Tools - StockCharts.com](<a href=“Market Indexes | Historical Chart Gallery | StockCharts.com”>Market Indexes | Historical Chart Gallery | StockCharts.com)</p>
<p>Triple top? Or are we going to blow this thing skyhigh and end up at 2300 or so?</p>
<p>That was a heck of a move in the 80’s and 90’s. I kind of like Japan.</p>
<p>Well, who knows? I can see 2,300 as the target of a rectangle consolidation. But it might take quite a while to get there. I really don’t play the $spx so I don’t pay as much attention to it. $comp is a bit easier as I don’t think that it’s going to print an all-time-high in the next few years.</p>
<p>I sometimes wonder if the Fed’s monthly $85 billion is helping to keep this thing going. The price action this month has been insane - stuff usually just doesn’t keep going up like this, especially with drag that Apple has been. I also wonder if retail is moving back into the market.</p>
<p>“I sometimes wonder if the Fed’s monthly $85 billion is helping to keep this thing going. The price action this month has been insane - stuff usually just doesn’t keep going up like this, especially with drag that Apple has been. I also wonder if retail is moving back into the market.”</p>
<p>I have a feeling the answer is yes to both of your wonders. The first wonder, definitely. </p>
<p>I am hearing from a couple of people in retail that retail is not that good right now. The
economy is kind of flat.</p>
<p><a href=“As Worries Ebb, Small Investors Propel the Markets - The New York Times”>As Worries Ebb, Small Investors Propel the Markets - The New York Times;
<p>Small Investors Regain Interest, and Stocks Rise</p>
<p>“Millions of people all but abandoned the market after the 2008 financial crisis, but now individual investors are pouring more money than they have in years into stock mutual funds. The flood, prompted by fading economic threats and better news on housing and jobs, has helped propel the broad market to within striking distance of its highest nominal level ever.”</p>
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<p>Interesting rule. Makes sense. How did you come up with this rule, Dad II?</p>
<p>I found the nytimes article above very interesting along with other articles that I see - not for the article but for the response letters.</p>
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<p>because I got burn so many times buying something in the first two days. </p>
<p>Let’s see, I suspect that AAPL will have a new low in this round in Monday.</p>
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<p>And the earnings are not that spectacular neither. IMHO, the stock will continue to go up because the “hot” money Fed is printing. It has to go some where - if it is not spent on retail, nor in housing, stock market seems to be where all these money are coming in. </p>
<p>The smart move is to get off before others do. The million $ question is: when to get off?</p>
<p>Do you segregate your savings and investments for certain goals? College payments retirement etc. If you do and account reaches the point where you have an adequate amount of money needed for that goal to you move it all to cash?</p>
<p>For example I will have a mortgage (by choice) when I retire but I will have funds set aside outside of my retirement income to pay it. When I retire the balance on my mortgage will be $150,000 and the principal and interest is $1000 per month. I plan to use funds in this account to pay the $1000 per month so in effect that account replaces $12,000 of needed income. Since the market is now back to where it was the account now has $150k which is all I will need and I was thinking of going to cash because the account has met the purpose I plan to use it for.</p>
<p>What are you going to do with the cash?</p>
<p>The cash makes less of a return than the cost of the mortgage. So, you lose slowly there. Then again, the cash gives you flexibility if an opportunity presents itself.</p>
<p>dstark- that is my thought and why I am concerned about moving to cash. That said we are a product of our experiences and I had a similar circumstance with money set aside for my daughters college. The mutual funds I had for her were way up in value but she was still 4 years or so from school instead of cashing the funds in and moving to the money to cash and have all 4 years paid I left the funds where they were and the market imploded. I was still able to get her through college debt free but it would have been much easier if I cashed out once the funds had met the goal I set.</p>
<p>Tom1944, you have to decide what works best for you. You have to decide what is comfortable for you. You can go to cash and pay off part of the mortgage too.</p>
<p>Nobody really knows where the market is going even though some people make a good living pretending they do know. Over time, the stock market should increase because the government increases the money supply, the population is increasing, markets are opening up in the world, and we are getting more productive. (I am leaving interest rates out of the discussion). The stock market has a long term slant upward with bumps of varying sizes along the way. </p>
<p>I am tired of the bumps so I am underinvested in stocks. I don’t like to lose and really I can’t afford to because I am going to have ongoing obligations for a long, long time. Of course, you can lose by not playing too. </p>
<p>It’s not that easy a decision, is it?</p>
<p>No it is not an easy decision. I am lucky that I do not need much so as long as I can pay my bills I am generally fine. That is why for me having each major expense accounted for may make sense even if it is not the best financial move for most people.</p>
<p>I would love to be able to say- this account is for my mortgage, this account is for vacations, this account is for day to day bills, this is for emergencies, this is for gifts etc.</p>
<p>“I would love to be able to say- this account is for my mortgage, this account is for vacations, this account is for day to day bills, this is for emergencies, this is for gifts etc.”</p>
<p>Then do it.</p>
<p>The best financial moves are tricky because they are based on probability not certainty. Also, there are other needs that might be more important. There might be a need for security. Psychology comes into play. Emotions are involved.</p>
<p>Tom1944, you have an account to pay off your mortgage with a target goal of $150k. You have reached that goal. If I were in your position, I would move it to cash. Most likely short-term CDs so you’ll be able to reinvest in higher-yielding CDs when interest rates rises. Use play money in other accounts (except emergency funds) to take advantage of any upside in the market.</p>
<p>That said the answer, for me, really depends on your situation. If the mortgage pay off account contains high-yield stocks/ETF funds that were bought at generational buy prices then I would hold onto it.</p>
<p>We paid off the mortgage in the 1990s - the choice was have more cash or not have to pay a bill monthly. I prefer not to have obligations and additional complications - financial, family and work bring enough complications to deal with.</p>
<p>That meant less cash reserves at the time but those grew with time and stock market gains. I managed to get out of the market before it crashed in 2000.</p>
<p>The market has its own schedule and I think that it’s generally unlikely to match your particular financial schedule; at least more than once. When do you get in and out? A lot of people have different ideas on that.</p>
<p>Here’s a website that may give you a few ideas (run by a friend). Look at the calls and look at where the markets went. I wish that he had more than six months’ history so that you could see this long term but you only get so much from stockcharts for a free public list. I use technical analysis, usually moving averages, moving average crossovers, chart patterns, sentiment, market breadth indicators and many others to make timing decisions. You can look at a ton of indicators but most of the time, there will be some conflicts. It’s an interesting approach if you have the time to learn them and you’ll see the market in a whole, new way. You have an accounting background so I assume that you can analyze financial reports to do fundamental analysis on individual stocks.</p>
<p>[The</a> dk Report - David Kneupper - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com](<a href=“http://stockcharts.com/public/3828047/tenpp]The”>Public ChartLists | StockCharts.com)</p>
<p>I read the comments from the link BCEagle91 posted. I Like Harry’s comment. “generally, SMALL FISH DON’T EAT BIG FISH”. </p>
<p>That was a very interesting spy graph BCEagle91 posted even though I am not sure if a triple top is forming or the market is going to erupt, or something in between,</p>
<p>We read history of stock markets and how investors sell out at bottoms and don’t come back to the markets as the markets recover and go on to new highs. Looks like we just lived that history.</p>
<p>Investors often come back at the wrong time but you don’t know how long the market will rise as they come into the market. Look at the internet bubble. Retail came in but it took quite a while for the market to form a top. The internet stocks topped in the spring. The big caps topped in the fall.</p>
<p>When the market starts going down in a crash, some retail gets out, then more and more and more, and then you have a climax and then you have along bottoming process. Yes, the retail investor can be wrong but it can take a while for the process to play out.</p>
<p>One other thing: we have the Fed printing but other central bankers are printing too.</p>