<p>There are always assumptions used in any mathematical analysis. The assumption here is most likely a Gaussian distribution, not some other distribution. That being said, even if the probability is much smaller than what was calculated doesn’t mean it won’t happen. There is an infinitesmally small probability that an object on a table is going to suddenly jump up but it is a finite probability based on QM. The probability of goog at the price of 839 reaching 730 in 9 days assuming an implied volatility of 44% based on yesterday’s close is 2.39%.</p>
<p>As far as missing out on goog. I’m also bent out of shape on this. On cnbc fast money at lunch time, the view was either wait for a pullback or buy the april 840 - 850 call spread if you want to get in. Last night, I was all set to buy phm and iwm calls today but they both got away from me right at the open.</p>
<p>I heard an analyst today say GOOG will go to $1000. In the past that was a sell signal. this time?</p>
<p>I love GOOG but its price looks over valued. I have not see any change in GOOG’s business operations that would justify giving it such a high growth expectation.</p>
<p>I’m listening to CNBC from earlier today. Maria Bartiromo has various people on talking about where they expect the market to go from here. Harry Dent is on yapping away. Why is he on? Is it for comic relief? The guy hasn’t been right about anything for years. Maybe they should get Prechter on also. One guy is saying the market is going down because of how bad things are compared to 2007 citing what Kass said about unemployment being higher now than in 2007, more people on food stamps now than in 2007 etc. Gee - I thought the market moved not by what it sees now but what it sees going forward such as things are getting better now not worse as in 2007.</p>
<p>IBD now says we are in a confirmed uptrend. That correction was a short one.</p>
<p>I read something saying GOOD is trying to be a competitor to NFLX with a shopping service, etc. That should be positive for GOOD but negative for NFLX.</p>
<p>My current buy considerations are: BCEI and SLCA and CHUY and POT. I’m also thinking of NMM but I have been looking at NMM for years and not pulled the trigger.</p>
<p>I had a look at BCEI from a fundamental perspective and something bugs me about it and I was curious as to what its story is. Then I had a look at the chart and that’s some chart! What’s the story on this that has it doubling in under a year? Or is it just a momentum play?</p>
<p>Just a note: I usually don’t respond to a lot of things posted here but I do find a lot of stuff here interesting and sometimes get a useful trade out of it. So you may post something and not get any response but I do read stuff of interest.</p>
<p>I was watching the news last night (major network here in Los Angeles), and they had some sort of personal finance manager or whatever on to talk about the new highs in the stock market. He said it’s a really bad time to sell, because whenever you sell you have to buy something else. If you sell now your only choice would be to buy something else high. :rolleyes:</p>
<p>BCEI’s earning in 2012 were 1.42. In 2013 they should be $3.20 according to credit suise. Earnings should come out on March 14 or so and if the they disappoint the stock will crash. If good, stock will move up. It’s a momentum play in oil exploration.</p>
<p>Prince Alwaleed is 57 yrs old and his current wife, Princess Ameera, is 29 yrs. old. I think I should’ve posted this in the Age Difference thread.</p>
<p>not necessarily. You could take the profit and put that in cash. There will be a correction coming sonner or later. You could, in theory, get back in at a lower entry point.</p>
<p>That is what I have been thinking lately. Do I get out or stay in. YTD, Dow, S & P and Nsd are up 6.5%, 5.3% and 3.4%, respectively. My 401K is up about 5.2% because most of my $ are in a S&P 500 index fund. </p>
<p>My intention now is to wait until S & P hits 1600 first.</p>