The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

Parent Cafe
5561

<p>Every put I have sold this year has expired worthless because I am a genius. Oh… And the stock market has gone straight up. Lol</p>

<p>I think there is a good chance that string is going to end this week. The stocks I am short puts in are really acting poorly today. I just had to sell that 425 put in aapl yesterday…</p>

<p>As I write this, aapl is really acting s… </p>

<p>I think the odds are 40 percent and rising that I am going to have to roll or become the proud owner of aapl. When I sell otm puts, I want better odds than that.</p>

5562

<p>How many siblings do u have BC…?</p>

5563

<p>My cousin’s kid did her student teaching at a elementary school in Boston - definitely was in bad shape. She’s now in Newton - obviously a big difference.</p>

5564

<p>I am in the very early stages of investigating the possibility of buying a condo/apartment in Boston. My son just started a job, his current lease runs out August 31. I have cash that could use a “home” rather than sitting in an account making .00000000001% interest. </p>

<p>So either he could borrow money from me, pay me rent, or a combination of both. That will be part of the research, along with the usual, price, location, maintenance, taxes, and the all encompassing… etcetera…</p>

<p>… oops! never mind, Dow is down 20 points, I no longer feel wealthy… :(</p>

5565

<p>I like living in my suburb because the weather is better here than the city, not as congested, I can walk everywhere…</p>

<p>But the restaurants are so much better in the city. There is no comparison. I ate at this Mediterranean restaurant on Fillmore this Sunday. It was great. Nothing like that here. I love Mediterranean food.</p>

5566

<p>NJres, I have thought of doing that too, but I think that opportunity is gone. No inventory. Home prices are erupting. I guess I will just have to sell more premium.</p>

<p>Good luck on the housing. What kind of job is your son going to have?</p>

5567

<p>"I think the odds are 40 percent and rising that I am going to have to roll or become the proud owner of aapl. When I sell otm puts, I want better odds than that. "</p>

<p>You’re in luck - its only 33%</p>

5568

<p>I love that u calculate that for me. What price of the stock did u use? 429. xx?</p>

5569

<p>it was 431.81</p>

5570

<p>What is the prob at 429.5? That is closer to where the stock was when I wrote the post.</p>

5571

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<p>3</p>

5572

<p>at 429.5, its 39%</p>

5573

<p>I am smiling…</p>

<p>Thanks</p>

5574

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<p>Maybe we should start a thread …</p>

<p>Son just renewed lease so he has another year. But it’s something that I suppose we should think about if he’s going to stay in his position for a while.</p>

5575

<p>Doct, did u write the probability program?</p>

5576

<p>no - I use a combination of ivolatility.com and hoadley.net.</p>

<p>Anybody buying vxx? I’d like to buy vix but don’t have a futures account and don’t have any experience with futures. VXX doesn’t track vix particularly well</p>

5577

<p>Just call Schwab and ask about futures trading</p>

5578

<p>The contango on vxx is a killer. You can follow the term structure at [VIX</a> Term Structure](<a href=“VIX Term Structure”>http://vixcentral.com/). it is not nearly as bad with vxz (although it is still a problem, and of course the upside with a vix spike in not nearly as big).</p>

5579

<p>EMM1, that is a good chart.</p>

5580

<p>That stuff that dstark sent out about the different “vix” plays showed that vxx captures more of the downside and less of the upside of vix.</p>