<p>The S&P has been in a nice channel for the last three months and it’s spent most of the time in the upper third part of the channel taking a trip to the bottom a few times. When we get a correction, I expect it to go to the bottom of the channel again. If it then bounces, party on. If not, then get out of Dodge for a while.</p>
<p>You’re not alone - I was just looking at one of my accounts - its 72% in cash. Looking at my 401k plans - I’m 60% in mutual funds (not sure how exact this is so don’t quote me that I said something else before) and its up 2.57% this year - How the h*ll can that be?? I don’t own any bonds because for the last 2 years I’ve expected that yields are going up - listening to all the talking heads who have been wrong on that also. I’m frustrated and hoping for a correction like I’m sure many others but maybe this time we’ll just hang around this level for a while and then go straight up again.</p>
<p>There is a danger when getting out of stocks of not getting back in or the market rising and making it more costly to get back into the market. </p>
<p>Some posters are going to be in stocks for the next 40 years. They also don’t understand the market, have the time to spend in the market, etc. During 40 years most short term down moves are blips.</p>
<p>There is a difference between investing and trading and most people are not really traders.</p>
<p>BCEagle91, you posted earlier about somebody you know that did not get back into the market.</p>
<p>Dstark: You’re lucky that your real estate is increasing in value. I’m watching my houses dropping several thousand a month each in value.</p>
<p>Yup. He admitted that he didn’t shift back to bullish mode when he should have. He got into medium-bear mode, got stopped out and didn’t flip back to long. He is super-busy at work but he’s looking to get back in. He has caught a lot of the move up though. He just bought a house and is doing a considerable remodel job. He can miss out and it won’t really hurt him that much. There’s always another train, you just have to be patient.</p>
<p>BTW, two of his picks have made me six figures in the last three months.</p>
<p>" You’re lucky that your real estate is increasing in value. I’m watching my houses dropping several thousand a month each in value."</p>
<p>How can that be? I didn’t think there was an area anywhere that was actually dropping much in value? Where is that, if you don’t mind me asking?</p>
<p>In southwestern ct. The tri - state area as a whole has dropping real estate values. One reference is: the case - schiller home price index.</p>
<p>On another subject, I’m sick and tired of looking at the way Schwab handles their 1099’s with wash sales. If I buy 10 shares of something at the same time but the order is not executed at the same time, it comes up with all this wash sale cr** that in the end is just the sale price - purchase price of all 10 shares which are all identical - what a waste of paper.</p>
<p>You are right. Patience is important. The Japan move is ****ing me off too. I love Japan. I told a trader I love
Japan at the beginning of the year and I like dxj a lot. He bought it and told some guy who used to be a fund manager at Fidelity. </p>
<p>I didn’t play Japan much. I’m a Dummy. Lol</p>
<p>Anyway, doct’s post got me thinking yesterday. I am trading well, but when doct mentioned his returns, I realized. I am not looking at my cash in banks and when I do this, my returns are not that good . </p>
<p>This could be a monster year. Over 20 percent returns. I don’t care what talking heads say, but I am going to watch investor sentiment.</p>
<p>What has gotten us the best return over the years, is playing the credit card shuffle game. We have made $1500 already this year, purely on three zero fee credit cards, that as soon as we get the $$, we will cancel. I suppose that would be an infinite return. No risk, except for a lower credit rating.</p>
<p>^^ I don’t get it?</p>
<p>^^We get credit cards that have huge promotional deals for signing up. The ones we’ve gotten this year have been Amex. They gave us 25K pts, 75K pts, 50K pts. You can convert them into Delta miles (very valuable if you fly with them), or get gift cards, or even cash. Last year my husband got himself $900 in REI gift certificates, we were sent $510 and $300 checks from other cards, Starbucks gift cards, etc. After you spend the min to get the promotion, you collect the points, cash them in and then cancel. They are always “first year no annual fee”. With Amex, you can get the same cards every year, for both you and your spouse. It’s crazy.</p>
<p>
Still claiming to be “dirt poor”??</p>
<p>Doct, I don’t want real estate prices rising around here. I am just reporting what is happening. I am a buyer if anything. My daughter is going to be a buyer.</p>
<p>Did that post about the leap spread do anything for you? Post 5735? If not, that’s fine.</p>
<p>I tried to help razorsharp in jcp…but I guess I am going to have to trade jcp myself. :)</p>
<p>Schwab still has problems with their tax accounting.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>For one thing, I have to liquidiate my retirement fund in the next few years. After reading how much people make, I also got a bit greedy. I am experimenting with a small portion of my holdings. </p>
<p>BCEagle - Thank you for the tip. I’ll try to learn to read the S&P chart. So far, it feels like trying to read tea leaves.</p>
<p>BCEagle91, I am going to go with tna as one of the two…</p>
<p>Doct, homes dropping several thousand a month? Wow…ugly…</p>
<p>Yup. Monstrous returns there. The other is PSEC. The dividends help there.</p>
<p>I know very little about psec. Psec borrows cheaply and then loans the money out at higher rates to small companies that don’t have access to cheap credit?</p>
<p>Yup. They’re kind of like a bank.</p>
<p>They will not do well in a high interest rate environment.</p>
<p>Instead of tna, I think you’re better off just buying iwm calls</p>
<p>I think you are a smart guy doct.</p>