The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

<p>My PBA monthly dividend isn’t in my account today.</p>

<p>Sometimes the Canadian companies take an extra day or three to get it in my account.</p>

<p>Didn’t know the dividend schedules of the DIA and SPY but it makes the DIA a bit more attractive to me.</p>

<p>I specifically bought the dia calls only out a couple of weeks, because it has broken out and I expect it to go higher for a bit more (spy hasn’t broken out and will take a while to go through resistance at 1565)</p>

<p>Did you see Sam Stovall on CNBC today?</p>

<p>After the S&P makes a new high the probability is it will rise 3 percent more and then correct.</p>

<p>Yeah that takes it to roughly 1600 but I think it is going to take a while to get through 1565. My year end target is between 1600 - 1700 and I expect a 10% correction somewhere before we get to that upper range.</p>

<p>Well…we get to find out if you are right.</p>

<p>You don’t have to find out if I’m right - I’m definitely right. I see that mini options are going to start trading on aapl, spy etc next week - looks interesting. Somebody suggested looking at aapl leaps. I see I can buy the 1/18/14 415 - 500 call spread for $35.75 and since the improvement in aapl is widely expected to be in the second half, perhaps this is a good trade.</p>

<p>I saw that. What are the commissions going to be on those minis. </p>

<p>What kind of market is made on the leaps? How wide is the bid- ask spread?</p>

<p>I also can’t remember the dividend rules. How large does the dividend have to be to adjust option prices?</p>

<p>Option strikes. Sorry. 5 percent dividend?</p>

<p>Ok… A 12.50 dividend should cover most special dividends that are rumored. Otherwise those owners of leaps would get screwed if there was a special dividend.</p>

<p><a href=“http://www.optionsclearing.com/components/docs/market-data/infomemos/2009/jan/25361.pdf”>http://www.optionsclearing.com/components/docs/market-data/infomemos/2009/jan/25361.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>The price I quoted for the leap spread was the ask (415) - bid (500) and the spreads are bigger but not that big. If you buy the spread now and wait to sell it then (the spread is going to be a lot less)</p>

<p>Doct, you are going to sell options on 30 shares of stock,? </p>

<p>Maybe in goog…</p>

<p>You would sell options on 30 shares of spy?</p>

<p>I don’t know about these minis…</p>

<p>aapl dividend is 2.5% and you’re ignoring the cost of trading it multiple times during the year. I’m going to be semi - retired next year and so if I hold the spread until January will pay less taxes since I will definitely be in a lower tax bracket.</p>

<p>For goog and aapl I usually buy 3 - 5 contracts. For spy 5 -10 contracts. For things like bac - 20 contracts. I never do positions that are too large except aapl and goog. Last year it was great - this year not so. I sell typically 5 spy put contracts, 1 for aapl and goog, 10 for iwm.</p>

<p>I don’t know about that leap spread… Maybe…</p>

<p>I’m not ignoring anything yet as far as the leaps go…</p>

<p>Could be good…</p>

<p>If you are retired, you might want to trade more maniacally.</p>

<p>The leaps aren’t going to be too active. </p>

<p>I can’t see trading fractions of shares as that lucrative.
Bats isn’t going to charge, but what about Schwab?</p>

<p>The leap spread isn’t helped by the dividend so I am not getting where you are going with that.</p>

<p>One thing I look at is where would the leap spread trade if the stock rallied a certain amount…</p>

<p>So…if the stock rallied 50 bucks where would the spread trade…
I look at the 365-450 spread and where that trades.</p>

<p>Where would the spread trade if the stock dropped 25 bucks?
Where does the 440-525 spread trade?</p>

<p>Then I would look at where the spread trades over time.</p>

<p>I would look at the jul options for example and compare them with the jans…</p>

<p>The spread looks like it has a 25 delta so for every 10 point move on the upside of aapl…the spread should rise approximately 2.5. This will change as the options get a lot closer to expiration.</p>

<p>If you are happy with this…go for it. </p>

<p>I like aapl. I think the stock looks good. I am a little concerned about
upcoming earnings, but I am always concerned about something. :)</p>

<p>We trade in similar ways. We don’t bet big on anything…most of the time.</p>

<p>[Booming</a> Market Adds 300,000 New US Millionaires - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“http://finance.yahoo.com/news/booming-market-adds-300-000-150608288.html]Booming”>http://finance.yahoo.com/news/booming-market-adds-300-000-150608288.html)</p>

<p>Hopefully we have quite a few here are among that 300,000. I know quite a few are already multi-MM.</p>

<p>My 401K has posted over $12,000 gain this year. Had the stock of my employer matched the gain of the DOW, my gain would have been much higher.</p>

<p>$12k, is great… or terrible… depending. My best performing account is up $1537 this year. It’s my “buy and hold everything in one stock etf account” up 10% ytd.</p>

<p>You guys are depressing me. Doct too. </p>

<p>I have too much of my financial assets in cash.</p>

<p>Maybe, I will go buy this condo and make 3 percent a year instead of zero. Nahhh. There are probably 10 bids on it already.</p>

<p>Does anyone have a rough idea when this correction is coming? When it comes, will it be sudden?</p>

<p>Nobody in the whole wide world knows…</p>

<p>Aren’t you going to be long stocks for the next 20 years? If so, who cares about a correction?</p>