<p>I don’t know what I’m going to do. I own both dxj and ewj. Maybe I’ll buy more.</p>
<p>Well…when your mind knows…just do it.</p>
<p><a href=“http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/09/us-funds-irasohn-einhorn-idUSBRE94802M20130509[/url]”>http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/09/us-funds-irasohn-einhorn-idUSBRE94802M20130509</a></p>
<p>I could have written this myself.</p>
<p>“It doesn’t make sense to blindly follow me or anyone else into a stock…”</p>
<p>Hedge fund track record lately…not tooooooo good.</p>
<p>And the pay and the fees…owning a hedge can be a nice gig…</p>
<p>Better than running a school’s endowment.
Ray Dalio makes real money.
Still…Ray Dalio did not beat the market last year.
David Einhorn is lagging. (Einhorn is not mentioned in this article).</p>
<p>[If</a> Hedge Funders Are So Smart, Why Are They So Relentlessly Wrong? - Matthew O’Brien - The Atlantic](<a href=“If Hedge Funders Are So Smart, Why Are They So Relentlessly Wrong? - The Atlantic”>If Hedge Funders Are So Smart, Why Are They So Relentlessly Wrong? - The Atlantic)</p>
<p>PBA chart:</p>
<p><a href=“http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/4594/pbae.png[/url]”>http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/4594/pbae.png</a></p>
![http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/4594/pbae.png[/url]](http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/4594/pbae.png%5B/url%5D){kind=link}
<p>I saw this weird thing on Bloomberg yesterday about ipad mini demand falling and wondered about that because it quoted a supplier’s CEO. And then today Fortune contacted the CEO and he said explicitly the statement was, in essence, fabricated by taking his quote about a projected decrease in their entire consumer electronics revenue and attributing that to the ipad mini. The specific quote said “is more on demand, while price has been stable” so it looked like the ipad mini was losing steam and a lot of it. That was phrased as "A decline in revenue from the iPad Mini “is more …” Note the CEO’s quote doesn’t refer to the mini.</p>
<p>Turns out their consumer electronics business includes “game consoles, LCD-TV, e-paper readers, tablet products, and some others. We put all tablet products in this category, but have never broken down to detail numbers for specific products nor customers.” He did say “almost every item is moving in a negative direction” but he never specified any product. </p>
<p>This kind of thing reminds me to focus on what I think after research. I’m not made to do short trades.</p>
<p>I assume that everyone is long double and triple index etfs and raking in the dough. I haven’t started my weekend financial reading and listening yet but I did run into two articles that I thought would be interesting.</p>
<p>“U.S. farmers will produce record corn and soybean crops this year, providing a much-needed supply to replenish dangerously low stockpiles, the Agriculture Department predicted Friday. The monster crops bode well for consumers, as well as livestock and ethanol producers who suffered through the 2012 drought, the worst since the Dust Bowl of the 1930s.”</p>
<p>So we have plentiful oil, natural gas and coal and it looks like we’ll have plentiful crops - maybe too much as some of it will have to go into storage. We need the first-time unemployment claims numbers to go down to 200,000.</p>
<p><a href=“http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20130511/BUSINESS01/305110022/0/como/?odyssey=nav|head[/url]”>http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20130511/BUSINESS01/305110022/0/como/?odyssey=nav|head</a></p>
<p>Federal Reserve officials have mapped out a strategy for winding down an unprecedented $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program meant to spur the economy – an effort to preserve flexibility and manage highly unpredictable market expectations. </p>
<p>[Fed</a> maps exit from stimulus - MarketWatch](<a href=“http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-maps-exit-from-stimulus-2013-05-10-191031815]Fed”>Fed maps exit from stimulus - MarketWatch)</p>
<p>“I assume that everyone is long double and triple index etfs and raking in the dough.”</p>
<p>Yeah - right. I don’t do those etfs, why bother, I’m 9 - 10x with options.</p>
<p>You raking in the dough with the calls then?</p>
<p>Not really, I’m underinvested.</p>
<p>Why do they know already there will be record crops this year? Do they have weather forcast through August?</p>
<p>“This kind of thing reminds me to focus on what I think after research. I’m not made to do short trades.”</p>
<p>Psychology is so important when it comes to money. Some people like the rush of trading and some don’t.</p>
<p>Kind of reminds me of musicians. When some musicians are young, they want to play fast or loud. As they age…the music becomes a little more introspective. The musicians slow down. It can be harder to play slow than play fast…but playing slow can be just as satisfying. Listening to something played slowly can be very satisfying.</p>
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<p>me 2. I am about 50% in cash in my 401K, about 80% in cash in my own e-trade account. However, my bank still have 100% of our investments in stock mutual funds.</p>
<p>[Market</a> May I?](<a href=“http://www.marketminder.com/a/fisher-investments-market-may-i/fa2667dd-e26d-4d94-a887-21077433ed9e.aspx]Market”>Market May I? | Insights | Fisher Investments)</p>
<p>[Assessing</a> Acrophobia](<a href=“Assessing Acrophobia | Insights | Fisher Investments”>Assessing Acrophobia | Insights | Fisher Investments)</p>
<p>People see what they want to see.</p>
<p>I am having a second thought about market timing. If I keep 10% cash to jump in when the time is right, I am also missing out if the market goes up. If it goes up 10%, I am losing out 1% overall. I doubt I will ever beat the market to make it worth.</p>
<p>You have to do what you’re comfortable with. Beating the market may or may not be a goal because the market carries risk and you may want a lower level of risk than the market carries so you could choose a path to lower risk and lower returns. It seems to me that DocT and dstark are playing a game where they have fairly low risks of losses where they win if something ends up in a price range rather than a pure directional trade. Their trades also have a time-component. I’m more comfortable with directional trades so I stick with those.</p>
<p>[Why</a> Harvard Spends Billions on New Zealand Timberland | Daily Ticker - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“Yes, Institutions and the Ultra Wealthy Have Had Advantages Over the Rest of Us”>Yes, Institutions and the Ultra Wealthy Have Had Advantages Over the Rest of Us)</p>
<p>There was budget deficit news this week. The deficit is declining fairly rapidly. I think this gives the fed a great opportunity to say at the next meeting that because the deficit is declining 15 percent ( I am making up the number), the fed is going to buy 15 percent fewer treasuries. </p>
<p>I don’t think the markets would decline much if the fed did this. </p>
<p>I sold some jun 45 dxj puts today. The volume is starting to pick up a little in dxj options which is great. The return is. 6.67 percent if the options go out worthless so we aren’t talking monster returns. Plus the puts may end up in the money so there is risk.</p>
<p>Onviously, all the intc puts went out worthless. I was also short the 24.5 puts and I wasn’t assigned on those.</p>
<p>I want to do more in intc but I am not aggressive right now. I short some jun puts from last week too.</p>
<p>Tsla, I was short over 100 puts that went out worthless. I am short a few that expire this week. They are going out worthless too. I would love to sell more puts in tsla but the stock has just taken off like a rocket. I don’t see much I want to do there this second. </p>
<p>Aapl puts went out worthless. I am still short a few, but I am not too excited with aapl puts this second. </p>
<p>Goog a couple of puts went out worthless. Nothing exciting there.
Nke is kind of a crummy option stock.
I still have fb puts out there. </p>
<p>That is my story and I am feeling good.</p>
<p>I saw the timber land video. I dislike it because the valuations And risk are different mow than 10 years ago among different asset classes. It is good to see what investment choices exist, but an investor should invest in what he or she knows. The investor should also look at price. Warren Buffett looks at price.</p>
<p>The returns of these endowments have been terrible the last 5 years as EMM1 pointed out. This is what society needs… Public investors paying up for stuff they don’t understand so the endowments can do better.</p>