<p>I would not buy all those spy calls now, only after a significant drop such as 10%. Although a probability calculator would in effect say that the downside risk after a 10% drop is the same as today, that is clearly not true. I don’t know the numbers of the top of my head, but the probability of > 10% correction must be less than < 10% corrections based on history. If the market drops 10% with the economic numbers that are in line with the current ones, people will pile into the market as many are waiting for this correction. I actually expect that even at a 5% drop many will get off the fence. At these levels, I’m uncomfortable committing any more capital.</p>
<p>BCEagle91, thanks for the intc link. Looks like intc is in a catch22 situation. Intc needs to get a critical mass in new markets and it can’t get a critical mass in new markets until the company gets a critical mass.</p>
<p>I am a little surprised how quickly and how much aapl has dropped in the last couple of days. Aapl is much more secretive about what the company is working on than goog. I think this is hurting the stock . Plus… Aapl’s markets are under attack. In some ways aapl has similarities to intc. Both companies have some issues in markets where they have done very well and need to expand into other areas.</p>
<p>I think aapl’s upside is bigger than intc’s. The downside might be bigger too. I think I am going to trade aapl a little differently going forward. Limit my risk a little bit more. </p>
<p>This bugs me a little…
[Sentiment</a> Survey | AAII: The American Association of Individual Investors](<a href=“http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey]Sentiment”>AAII Investor Sentiment Survey | AAII)
The bullish sentiment didn’t increase during the last week.</p>
<p>Doct, what you are saying makes sense in your last post.</p>
<p>This is Google I/O week so Google is announcing new products and they’re getting a ton of press. Apple does these too and they typically get a bump going in. GOOG is innovating at a faster pace than Apple is in terms of products but it is easier for them because they aren’t doing the hardware side. The hardware side these days looks a lot harder than the software side. GOOG is doing a lot of software and a lot of experimentation.</p>
<p>Intel has performance and performance/watt leadership in mobile with their next generation parts and that says a lot. They will be attractive with their chip but they still have to win designs. If they get an overwhelming advantage, then I think that even Apple would be forced to go with Intel but Intel would have to have an even bigger lead. This could happen if the other semi companies slipped up. Intel is changing their platform strategy - before it was PC/Server first, then mobile second. They are changing to mobile first. When they get a process shrink, they use it first on mobile. Mobile was always a second-class citizen at Intel. No more. Intel owns the PC/Server space and they don’t need to push as hard as they have been doing in that space - there is no real competition and their current products and those coming out later this year are very, very good. I think that it’s interesting that their best server products are based on Sandy Bridge right now (Ivy Bridge is shipping on Desktop/Laptop and Haswell will be shipping in a few weeks). When Haswell goes out, they’ll upgrade their best server chips to Ivy Bridge, probably later this year. They do not have to rush on the server stuff. In the past, they did them together and sometimes even came out with new servers first.</p>
<p>On pullbacks, they’re getting bought at -0.3% now. I imagine that there would be huge interest on a 10% pullback.</p>
<p>Jobless claims 360K. Looks like QE is going to keep on rolling.</p>
<p>I think the 10 percent correction talk is a wish. Just because a market rallies 16 percent doesn’t mean the market is going to turn around and correct 10 percent.</p>
<p>My gut tells me that the max pain right now is with the market going up. I may lower my more significant entry point to a 5% drop.</p>
<p>That 6/22 820 - 910 goog call spread is a problem for me now. I wish I had only bought the 820 calls and I would sell them now. I really dislike this move and I see its up another 7 in the premarket. If I sell the spread now, I only get a bit more than 50% of the potential return if it stays above 910 but with moves like this I don’t trust that it will stay above this level more than a month from now.</p>
<p>That is a problem with using a maximum pnl when putting on spreads. I was trying to explain this with the butterfly spreads. Risk reward shifts as you own the spreads.</p>
<p>The goog trade is a great problem to have. You can roll the spread to something else. I have not looked but you can roll to many different spreads. </p>
<p>The 880-980 for example if you want more upside. One thing about goog options is the markets are very wide. There is some slippage in these trades. Of course, when goog rallies 100 bucks the slippage problem is not that big a problem.</p>
<p>You have many choices.</p>
<p>In the words of that sage cnbc fast money guy, Guy Adami: “price is truth”, but this market seems wacky to me.</p>
<p>[David</a> Tepper May Be Bullish But Appaloosa’s Position Reductions Show He Isn’t Greedy - Seeking Alpha](<a href=“David Tepper May Be Bullish But Appaloosa's Position Reductions Show He Isn't Greedy | Seeking Alpha”>David Tepper May Be Bullish But Appaloosa's Position Reductions Show He Isn't Greedy | Seeking Alpha)</p>
<p>Doct, you should sign up at gurufocus.</p>
<p><a href=“http://m.gurufocus.com/guru.php[/url]”>http://m.gurufocus.com/guru.php</a></p>
<p>I’m a little surprised. I don’t see my name there. Is yours?</p>
<p>I think you should sign up on gurufocus.</p>
<p>This market is painful. Others I’ve been talking to say they have the urge to buy more. At least over the last month or so, I have increased my positions so I’m moving the same percentages as the market.</p>
<p>[David</a> Tepper | Appaloosa Management LP Portfolio - 2013 Stock Picks and Performances](<a href=“http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=David+Tepper]David”>http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=David+Tepper)</p>
<p>I’ve been mostly fully invested for a while. Just playing around with some trading positions lately. Sold TIF, NKE and TJX this morning and bought WFR.</p>
<p>Why do you like wfr?</p>
<p>It’s a bit of a joke. One guy is a semi expert in our trading group. He’s been touting the stock for a while and the stock has been all over the place. I suggested buying it when it was about $5.20 on the dip. Should have listened to myself. A bunch of other traders were frustrated because it kept going up when everyone wanted a dip to buy it on. So they were cursing at it last night and I volunteered to buy some shares so that they could get it when it dropped after I bought it.</p>
<p>Lol… Ok.</p>