The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

<p>That’s great, EMM1.</p>

<p>My nephew is working at amzn. </p>

<p>Your kids are doing so well…</p>

<p>Are you going to do anything differently now that your kids are grown?</p>

<p>I don’t think it would be a surprise if I say I love what your daughter is doing.
There are so many “angels” as mini would say working with children of developmentlally disabled children.</p>

<p>We’re thinking on it. Probably travel a little more and sell the house within the next five years. It’s good to have the tuition monkey off our backs (from S1 and D’s education).</p>

<p>EMM1, yeah… </p>

<p>That’s great. Have fun.</p>

<p>[The</a> World’s 5 Most Debt-Ridden Countries](<a href=“http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/05/18/the-worlds-5-most-debt-ridden-countries.aspx]The”>The World's 5 Most Debt-Ridden Countries | The Motley Fool)
No. 5: Ireland, 122% Debt/GDP
No. 4: Portugal, 122% Debt/GDP
No 3: Italy, 130% Debt/GDP
No. 2: Greece, 179% Debt/GDP
No. 1: , 245% Debt/GDP</p>

<p>Wasn’t very surprised by the dominance of the PIIGS, but didn’t guess the winner. When I lived in Asia during the late 70s/early '80s, I held a sizable part of my portfolio in these stocks (liquidating just before the huge ), and I think, the index has just caught up with where it was then, and is going gangbusters these last few months.</p>

<p>Japan as #1 is surprising. Could be a big problem with so many elderly and so few young people. Who will pay?</p>

<h1>1 is Japan. I read an article last week that said the Netherlands was actually one of the worst countries for debt, was still in big trouble with their own housing crisis, and might actually bring down the EU. Surprised me because I always thought the Dutch were fiscally responsible like the Deutch.</h1>

<p>My older brother says, “Life begins when the kids leave home… and the dog dies”</p>

<p>I thought it was funny… but true also.</p>

<p>Japan, the country, has a lot of debt as that has been their central bank policy for quite some time but the citizens themselves have significant savings and industry has significant exports. I don’t know if that’s an optimum model but they do seem to be coming out of a very, very long recession with the printing.</p>

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<p>Japan has worked for many decades to keep their currency weak so that they could export goods to other country and keep their citizens employed.</p>

<p>“H.P. used alternating loans from two offshore entities, one in Belgium and another in the Cayman Islands, during 45-day windows to technically meet an exception for “short term” loans. The subcommittee report explains that a pattern of “continuous lending appeared to be occurring for most of the period between 2008 through 2011.””</p>

<p>“There is reason to be equally concerned about companies that respect the accounting rules and, in order to avoid the repatriation tax, actually reinvest overseas. Evidence suggests that accounting-motivated foreign direct investments achieve a lower rate of return than investments in the United States. As economic theory would predict, corporate managers are willing to accept a lower pretax rate of return and create jobs overseas rather than paying the repatriation tax and create jobs at home.”</p>

<p>Two problems with the current corporate tax rate. Companies that use sham accounting to repatriate using short-term loans that are technically legal and companies that are actually investing overseas (creating jobs) even though their returns are lower, to avoid paying taxes. I think that everyone wants to fix this (at least everyone says so) but the mood isn’t conducive to fixing this by the fall. Cisco’s Chairman has indicated that he may start doing permanent investments overseas if this isn’t fixed this year.</p>

<p>So…companies invest the money overseas…
Lower returns are better than even lower returns…</p>

<p>And doct’s link is true…</p>

<p>And what I also said will come true…</p>

<p>If companies invest shareholder money and make low returns, shareholders will eventually make low returns.</p>

<p>Somebody at the NY Fed said something or the NY Fed did some study and that successful hedge fund manager, i can’t remember his name, lol, jumped on it. </p>

<p>Stocks are incredibly cheap compared to interest rates. Therefore, stocks are great buys. </p>

<p>Uhhhh… These interest rates are distorted. These interest rates are not made by market forces.</p>

<p>This may not matter over the next couple of years. Maybe the fed will continue to be Aggressive for a decade. If rates rise 2 percent… There are going to be some valuation adjustments.</p>

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<p>I think that it’s true for some companies and not true for others. I guess that we’d have to have a list of companies and what they are doing. I do want HP to succeed but that’s only because I have a pension there - I personally think that their management is doing a horrible job.</p>

<p>Google is getting a lot of bad press for their practices in the UK - the folks in the UK are upset on that one. They’re doing the full-court media press on that one - they state that everything is legal. I have no doubt that they are doing things legally but they may be skirting the intent of the law. I think that you can’t just paint all companies with a broad brush. If you know that they are doing something illegally, that’s one thing. If you know that what they are doing is legal but would look bad, that’s another. If they are in a gray area, that’s yet another area.</p>

<p>It does appear that these companies are carrying their tax liabilities on their books at the 35% rate. If something is worked out at a lower rate, they may well get a one-time windfall on their financial reports and better earnings into the future because of lowered tax rates.</p>

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<p>[The</a> Vapors - Turning Japanese - YouTube](<a href=“http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEmJ-VWPDM4]The”>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEmJ-VWPDM4)</p>

<p>The Vapors? Lol</p>

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<p>They are articulate, well connected, and have know-hows. And their listeners, elected officials and others are also likely to be in the top 2% making it easy to emphasize with their "difficulties’. Unfortunately, we can’t have a democracy if top 2% are looking after each other and not the rest.</p>

<p>I agree with you igloo.</p>

<p>Igloo, what is with you and the obsession with this or that percentage? If it makes you feel better, the top 2% can’t even fund their Roths unless they do a backdoor, or have one of those rare deals that a few savvy ultra wealthy have.</p>

<p>Anyone know anything about Andreeson Horowitz? Not as a company to invest with, but to work for.</p>

<p>^^ Does this have anything to do with Y combinator - a company that connected startups with investors? DS’s former company of a half dozen people in Palo Alto got a million something in funding via arrangements made by YC. The whole startup process was very interesting the way he explained it to me and YC certainly is an important player in this innovation.</p>

<p>BD - I am not picking on you. I am not pitching top 2% against 98% as you put it. The only reason I mention top 2% is to maintain perspectives. Our life in top 2% may seem hard but if we know we are in the top 2% and there are 98% doing worse, our “hardship” may look different.</p>

<p>If it’s up to me, I’d rather be less wealthy and have a democracy than the other way around.</p>

<p>I’m not sure of the Y combinator, Dad<em>of</em>3, but yes, they are a venture capital firm, connecting startups with investors. They have billions of dollars invested and they sound very interesting to me. They seem to have a very hands on approach.</p>

<p>I know you’re not picking on me, Iglooo…I just get so annoyed with the whole "this percentage, that percentage’ stuff. As if you make XXX you are privileged and stealing from the rest…and if you make one dollar less, you are now the victim. I am annoyed with the references to 1%, 2%, 5%…as I am annoyed with this or that percentage that supposedly are “not paying taxes”. I know people in the far lower percentages that are very wealthy, and people in the far upper percentages that are broke. It is just a way to separate and divide us, causing resentment. It’s merely one of those triggers that when I hear people talking about, that irritates me.</p>

<p>SCTY looks like a short. It’s up on bad earnings, possibly a short squeeze.</p>