<p>Ok…'fess up. Who was long…</p>
<p>[FOSL</a> Stock Quote | Fossil, Inc. Research](<a href=“http://caps.fool.com/Ticker/FOSL.aspx]FOSL”>FOSL Stock Quote | Fossil Group, Inc. Research)</p>
<p>What the heck?! I’ve done my share by buying Fossil purses and wallets!</p>
<p>Sounds like somebody should have given a pre-announcement/heads up earlier on some aspects of the earnings/guidance…Even dropping 37% in one day, the stock isn’t too far from even for the year.</p>
<p>Premarket looks soft…</p>
<p>The 10 year yield is 1.79 percent…</p>
<p>Wow…</p>
<p>That kind of sucks…</p>
<p>I don’t know why the stock market rallied the last couple of hours yesterday…</p>
<p>We are back near yesterday’s lows…</p>
<p>What was the point? :)</p>
<p>Looking like we are on a path similar to what Japan has experienced in the last 20 years…</p>
<p>If we are going to end up like Japan…</p>
<p>Then we might as well get the deflation too…</p>
<p>Low rates + inflation= lower standard of living…</p>
<p>Low interest rates,check…lower standard of living for middle class,check…housing prices declining,check…low birth rates,check…</p>
<p>An ugly picture you are painting…</p>
<p>So if the DJIA trades at 12,000 and you get long size…</p>
<p>Things will be rosy? :)</p>
<p>"Low interest rates,check…lower standard of living for middle class,check…housing prices declining,check…low birth rates,check… "</p>
<p>I disagree with this assessment. Housing prices look to be turning around. We have population growth not stagnation or decline. Our country is much more open to immigration (legal). Japan is a closed society that is aging without replacement.</p>
<p>Housing may have bottomed,but household formation is at a very low level, and prices have yet to see decent increases …and are you suggesting the middle class standard of living hasn’t decreased?</p>
<p>I have a feeling the market finishes close to even today…i hope i am wrong. ;)</p>
<p>^^I hope you’re right - I bought some qqq at the open for a short term trade</p>
<p>If market finishes flat or up,i am getting shorter. ;)</p>
<p>Frankly, business cycles of the past appear to be obsolete now, due to MAJOR changes in the structure of the US economy:
- export of many many US jobs (does benefit consumer as cost of goods is lowered)
- aging of US population, esp non-immigrant segments
- record tax rates/record government support needed/aged infrastructure
- record # going to college yet record high ticket price/huge level of student debt
- lack of training and other such investment in and commitment to employees by corporations and companies/need to re-invent oneself/job mobility is now integral to a “career”
- US K-12 education not respected globally, probably not keeping up both skill and work-ethic wise
- US cultural values seem to emphasize on “creativity”, “invention”, entertainment, instant gratification, broad but not deep relationships, lack of privacy, “happiness”, individualism at the expense of longer term oriented values like hard work, loyalty, strong ethics, saving for the future, family and community, health, faith and trust in others, team-work and compromise… BOTH of these sets of values are needed in a balance to propel good decision making for the economy, IMO. In the end, economics is psychology- why and how people make decisions and what the impacts of those decisions are…
- need for really ground-breaking new inventions, esp in areas of energy, nutrition, health, and also in political structures, and in management of data
- confusion about market economy vs managed economy
- interconnected of all the economies around the world, such that national boundaries have become primarily political, thus create instability in the pure markets-- globalization is now at a tenuous point
- re-emergence of conservative and populist thinking throughout the world, runs counter to market-based economics, to scientific innovation., to world peace and security, to individual liberties.
- huge amounts of information piling up that need to be managed and structured into useful knowledge</p>
<p>It would appear that we really need a NEW world-view, politically and economically, to move forward.
I see the stack market as having a lovely rebound, but now the real deal will be tested.
It will, as usual, trade around in fit and starts, reveal impacts as we push through this difficult transition, but we all need to move forward and re-think our basic approaches and assumptions; looking regressively is not all that usual any more. It IS a new world!</p>
<p>For example, what is happening to the EU is potentially revolutionary- what will happen now? what if certain countries drop out? what will Germany do from here? What are the real and significant differences in how these individual countries operate and can they ever work together?</p>
<p>This phase began with the shrinking of the planet via transportation and computerization and telecommunications… We have reached a critical point where we cannot use the old ways anymore.</p>
<p>Yes, we will see lots of little blips in different areas of the US economy (which may very well show in the stock market and be traded), but I do not think there will be the gratifying roar of an upward soar of all the US engines and cylinders at once. Sadly, the politicians really do not get this.</p>
<p>Performersmom…</p>
<p>I think that is an excellent post.</p>
<p>Quite a lot there to think about.</p>
<p>I don’t understand number 3. “record tax rates”.</p>
<p>I don’t think anybody knows what is going to happen to the Euro.</p>
<p>I don’t want to talk too much about politics…because our posts will become vaporware…so I will just day that politicians are puppets…and followers…not leaders. I don’t expect any great ideas to solve some of our economic problems coming from politicians.</p>
<p>And …there is a huge population that doesn’t like change. They like the status quo…even if the status quo doesn’t benefit them. People’s brains get flustered with the thought of change.</p>
<p>I see a little more speculation in the markets today…</p>
<p>“so I will just day that politicians are puppets…and followers”</p>
<p>most people whose livelihood depends on being popular are going to be puppets.</p>
<p>dstark- you are right about #3- I guess that is not at all correct. I guess it would be fairer to say that the solutions many are proposing world-wide to the slow growth and capital formation is to use the tax system to support the weak sectors.
I apologize for sounding political.
I can re-word it today that governments are not providing leaders and leadership in re-thinking the solutions and structures. </p>
<p>One irony is that, as we baby-boomer age ourselves out of employability (in many cases before we ever expected to) in the private sector, what options do we really have? Government office? Non-profit work? Investing and trading (securities, RE, businesses) with what little money we have)? Re-training and educating? Writing and communicating? Art? Travel (if have the money)? Consulting? Starting or running a small biz? Caring for the next generation? Living sustainably and efficiently with a victory garden and no car? Improving health via diet and exercise and peace of mind and community?</p>
<p>Maybe these can be mined for investment ideas…</p>
<p>The answers to your questions are very complex…and maybe…some of your questions are not answerable. :)</p>
<p>Since I am in my mid 50’s and my gig may be over this summer…I am wondering what the @@@@ I am going to do myself. :)</p>
<p>Different people are going to have different answers to your questions.</p>
<p>I sold szym…higher than here but I took a small loss…where can I send you a bill…for my loss…and pain and suffering? :)</p>
<p>I don’t know about other boomers, but this one is getting pretty tired of all the complexity in the world.</p>