<p>Barclay’s cuts Q2 GDP forecast from 1.0% to 0.6% on wholesale inventories.</p>
<p>Somebody is smoking something. </p>
<p>The Fed? Firms like Barclay’s?</p>
<p>I guess we are going to have a robust second half of the year. :)</p>
<p>“But if home prices go down, shouldn’t the number of people able to buy a house go up? To me this seems like a blatant move by realtors to try and keep house prices inflated so they get a few hundred bucks extra per closing.”</p>
<p>No, I don’t think it’s a selfish maneuver by realtors to make a few hundred bucks here and there. Many people decide to buy a house instead of renting because they think they are getting a long term tax break. Maybe not something they can deduct immediately, or maybe they haven’t even run the numbers, realizing that it isn’t useful for them, but they take that into consideration. Especially with interest rates going up like crazy, you take the tax break away and many people will decide it is more cost effective to just rent (particularly middle-upper middle class workers).</p>
<p>We would have never bought the house we live in now if they had removed the tax break, we would have stayed put. Removing the deduction, combined with rising interest rates will depress prices and sales, which of course, the realtors and related industries will hate. I don’t know if lower sales and prices are a good or bad thing, I guess it depends upon if you’re buying or selling.</p>
<p>I would think a healthy industry should not depend on tax policy to thrive. If mortgage deduction is what get real estate industry going, it doesn’t seem right to me.</p>
<p>The firs good news regarding financial industry,</p>
<p>[Plan</a> Reins In Biggest Banks - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“http://finance.yahoo.com/news/plan-reins-biggest-banks-154200462.html;_ylt=A2KJ3CR_s91RwRMAbJiTmYlQ]Plan”>http://finance.yahoo.com/news/plan-reins-biggest-banks-154200462.html;_ylt=A2KJ3CR_s91RwRMAbJiTmYlQ)</p>
<p>I hope they stick to it and not water it down.</p>
<p>Many many industries have all sorts of tax concessions for various policy and social goal reasons. Housing is just one and rental housing has their own too.</p>
<p>Am I missing something, or does the global head of equity trading at Citi just not understand some things about the vix</p>
<p>[Stock</a> ‘fear gauge’ flawed, Citi equity trading chief says - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-fear-gauge-flawed-citi-095105716.html]Stock”>http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-fear-gauge-flawed-citi-095105716.html)</p>
<p>He says the vix is “an asset class and it’s more traded for yield than protection” and that “the VIX is sold to generate yield,” and implies that the level of the vix is determined in part by the buying and selling of the etps that are structured around vix futures, like vxx and xiv.</p>
<p>Well, I’ve got some news for this guy. He may be correct that the vix is no longer an accurate gauge of fear in the market, but if so, it has nothing to do with the value of the futures. The level of the vix is not determined by the market in the futures. It is a ratio based on the cost of options on SPY. So he is in essence arguing the price of the options themselves is not connected to the people’s level of anxiety. </p>
<p>Unbelievable.</p>
<p>I’m generally a flat taxer, but one of the problems with getting rid of the mortgage deduction is that among the losers would be the current owners of houses who bought in at prices that reflected the existence of the deduction. Not necessarily dispositive of the issue, but something that you need to think about.</p>
<p>That’s why you phase it out over time.</p>
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</p>
<p>Without the mortgage interest deduction, do you feel the price of the house you moved into would be lower? If it was lower, wouldn’t that help compensate for the loss of the deduction?</p>
<p>The last few years would have been a fantastic time to phase out the deduction with low interest rates allowing people from higher times to refinance.</p>
<p>But what if people are moving from a house they own to a rented apartment? They would be losers.</p>
<p>Nothing is going to happen to it so the discussion is pointless.</p>
<p>“The Fed chairman sounded several dovish notes. He said that the unemployment rate probably understates the weak condition of the labor market. And he stressed that the Fed was concerned about the current very low inflation rate. If inflation does not move up closer to the central bank’s 2% target, “that would be a good reason to remain accommodative,” he said.”</p>
<p>““There will not be an automatic increase in interest rate when unemployment hits 6.5%,” Bernanke said in the question-and-answer session of a speech to economists. Given the weakness of the labor market, and low inflation “it may be well sometime after we hit 6.5% before rates reach any significant level,” Bernanke added. U.S. stock futures rose on the comments, with the S&P 500 SPU3 +0.44% contract tacking on about 0.7%”</p>
<p>[Bernanke</a> stresses rates to stay low for long time - The Fed - MarketWatch](<a href=“Bernanke stresses rates to stay low for long time - MarketWatch”>Bernanke stresses rates to stay low for long time - MarketWatch)</p>
<p>Glad to see these words directly from Bernanke instead of the surrogates.</p>
<p>Given the lemming-like responses of some traders to anything the Fed says, should be a strong open tomorrow.</p>
<p>“Without the mortgage interest deduction, do you feel the price of the house you moved into would be lower? If it was lower, wouldn’t that help compensate for the loss of the deduction?”</p>
<p>If they had abruptly removed the deduction and the housing market had absolutely crashed, we still might have bought it. The price would have had to be significantly lower, and I doubt it would have been. It wouldn’t have compensated enough for us to afford to buy it. Then again, maybe we shouldn’t have bought at the top of our range in the first place.</p>
<p>Leverage in down markets causes more selling…</p>
<p>[REITs</a> Deepening Bond Losses as Leverage Forces Sales - Bloomberg](<a href=“Bloomberg - Are you a robot?”>Bloomberg - Are you a robot?)</p>
<p>Must be nice to have zero to 5 trading day losses a quarter.
[Jefferies</a> Reports Five Trading-Loss Days in Second Quarter - Bloomberg](<a href=“Bloomberg - Are you a robot?”>Bloomberg - Are you a robot?)</p>
<p>[Phys.Org</a> Mobile: PC sales slide again, Lenovo takes top spot: survey](<a href=“http://m.phys.org/news/2013-07-pc-sales-lenovo-survey.html]Phys.Org”>PC sales slide again, Lenovo takes top spot: survey)</p>
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<p>One can make a lot of money going along with the lemmings for the ride. Especially if you are positioned before they start moving.</p>
<p>I couldn’t believe INTC was below $23 today.</p>
<p>I put in a small buy order for FCX this evening. Something for the long-term as a 4.6% dividend yield play. Copper + Gold. Only downside is that it’s in Indonesia.</p>
<p>My intc position is getting smaller and smaller. I have buy/writes on and there is a good chance I am going to lose most of the stock.</p>
<p>Intc is going to be almost meaningless to me soon. :)</p>
<p>[Don’t</a> Invest in Hedge Funds - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dont-invest-hedge-funds-231114731.html]Don’t”>Don't Invest in Hedge Funds)</p>
<p>I think this is a great opinion piece.</p>
<p>I am not sure about the mreits because the level of interest rates are different than they were ten years ago and the leverage may be different within individual companies. It is something that can be looked at and studied.</p>
<p>The economic analysis is right on… </p>
<p>The economy is different depending on who gets the spoils…</p>
<p>Depressions occur with overinvestment and the inability to spend.</p>
<p>The talk about interest rates staying low is interesting.</p>
<p>Because of safety nets and the difference in policies I am not sure our economy is going to be depressed like the US in the 30’s or like Japan.</p>
<p>There are also demographic issues, technological advancements, new industries that are different when comparing different eras.</p>
<p>[A</a> Depression With Benefits: The Macro Case For mREITS - Seeking Alpha](<a href=“A Depression With Benefits: The Macro Case For mREITs | Seeking Alpha”>A Depression With Benefits: The Macro Case For mREITs | Seeking Alpha)</p>
<p>I bot ZNGA about 2 weeks ago based on the “Mattrick will be CEO rumor” at $3.09. I just got alerted to sell based on a planned price point exit. Now, I’m in a conundrum because Zacks just upgraded it to a strong buy and second guessing myself. </p>
<p>[Zynga</a> Upgraded to Strong Buy - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“http://finance.yahoo.com/news/zynga-upgraded-strong-buy-153002797.html]Zynga”>Zynga Upgraded to Strong Buy)</p>
<p>Sell half./</p>