<p>Fama is an idiot. We won’t have a recession in 2014. If we have a downturn it will be a depression and not likely on 2014. The only people dumber than Fama is the group at ECRI who have say we are in a recession and have been in one for several years now.</p>
<p>The Feds QE is finally starting to work albeit at a very slow pace. I think the economy will continue to grow for several years given how hard it has been to start to move in the right direction. If it does not continue we will see depression not recession.</p>
<p>Fama is worshiped in index investing communities. It certainly feels he is wrong at the moment with the good job numbers everyone is raving about.</p>
<p>I have a bond fund with loss. Is there anyone reason I should hold onto it instead of loss harvesting and buying back sometime next year? Does anyone ex[ect bond prices will go up anytime soon?</p>
<p>Yesterday near the closing I made a gambling bet on ARIA. The company has a cancer drug Iclusig (ponatinib). The price went from low $20s to $2.15 when FDA pulled the drug off the market.</p>
<p>When the news of support from EMA, the share price went up to $5.72 and has since been shifting lower. </p>
<p>All the sciences per abstract from ASH conference seem to be positive for the drug. Any seasoned trader here following this stock?</p>
<p>Gambling is right. That stock has dropped so much, it will either go to zero or come back up at the next important test or trial. People gambled on Best Buy and Yahoo and it paid off. Those stocks depended on new leadership and business decisions. ARIA looks like it is event driven and there is no way to tell the out come of events like FDA action until it happens.</p>
<p>“I have a bond fund with loss. Is there anyone reason I should hold onto it instead of loss harvesting and buying back sometime next year? Does anyone ex[ect bond prices will go up anytime soon?”</p>
<p>Yes on December 18th.</p>
<p>“Another nobel prize winning economist predicting a reccession in 2014”</p>
<p>There is a risk for a recession every day for the rest of time. The Nobel Prize in economics is like the Nobel Prize in Peace - meaningless.</p>
<p>The yield will be impacted by what happens with QE on that date. If they reduce QE, the yields may spike that day and then drop back within a few days when the markets come to their senses. If they don’t reduce QE, the yields will probably drop a bit. I expect they will not reduce QE on the 18th. Most likely, there probably won’t be a tremendous amount of movement anyway.</p>
<p>It looks like you can play ARIA within the 3.50 to 4.71 range. But just like BTC, dont bet the family farm. You can bet with your horse providing you have 499 horses. You should have played with CELG and FRX instead the past few days. According to the Fool, if you had to pick b/w LXRX, OREX and ARIA, the best bounce play is OREX.</p>
<p>Well DadII, confession time. I did bet on ARIA yesterday using the family gopher not the horse and ignored my own resistance of $4.71 so still holding it. Hoping that today’s Stifel upgrade to $7 will give a lot more pop to the stock.</p>
<p>My base is around $4.00 I typically sell them off after a $0.50 per share gain. But I was in meeting the whole morning and missed those period of $4.70 or higher. </p>
<p>Holding my shares for one more day and see what happens. All the indication is that the drug could be used as a second line cancer treatment with a lower dosage. If and when FDA approves that, I will think that stock should get to at least $7 ~ 8 range. </p>
<p>This is my playing account and I only have mid five figure cash in it. However, a double within a month or so would be nice. </p>
<p>My other bet is NBG - national bank of Greece. If EU goes up, NBG is the largest bank in Greece with business in some other countries. </p>
<p>been also playing with TZA for fun. the last round was $18.50 in and $19.10 out today. Again, did not have time to watch it. Put in a sell order before leaving home and found out now I left about $0.20 per share on the table.</p>
<p>I don’t invest in individual stocks, but if you are even mildly positive on ARIA I might try a buy write, writing a Jan. 15 leap call at 1.90, creating a potential 80+ percent return on investment with a lot of downside protection.</p>