<p>Doct, I would not worry about that order. </p>
<p>Are those puts the puts to buy if the stock is going to drop?</p>
<p>The stock can drop $4-$5 and the puts will be lower in price.</p>
<p>I’m not sure what you’re asking. With the stock at 98.36, 4 days to go and iv = 57.4%, it is the probability that the stock is going to end up at 90 or less on that day. Since most likely, the iv is going to drop after tomorrow, the probability may also drop.</p>
<p>Doct, if you thought the stock was going to drop tomorrow, would you buy those puts? </p>
<p>no</p>
<p>as a matter of fact I would be selling them.</p>
<p>Lol…, right… :)</p>
<p>That’s why the put buy is meaningless… The mentioning of that trade by Dan Nathan makes for mediocre tv. :)</p>
<p>I love his name though. :)</p>
<p>I think that the press conference tomorrow is going to have to be a huge bust for AAPL to drop significantly post-conference. I don’t think that’s likely … given the hit that the shares have already taken the last week, I think a slow fizzle is more likely if the announcement disappoints. (I mean, how disappointing can a media marketing event be? worst case scenario is that the reaction is “meh”… and the stock is already in meh-mode). </p>
<p>On the other hand, I think they would have to announce something truly amazing and astounding to generate a huge bump – which I think is equally unlikely-- given the overall limits on technology. I think a few really cool, “I want that” type of features might be enough to address some investor jitters and pull the stock up to the 100+ mark.</p>
<p>Just my opinion… I will be very interested in the presser tomorrow, but am not holding my breath. And no matter how it goes, I won’t be buying an iPhone. (I’ve only purchased one Apple product ever and it was an unmitigated disaster)</p>
<p>I am looking forward to seeing the reaction tomorrow.</p>
<p><a href=“Apple Events - Apple”>http://www.apple.com/live/</a></p>
<p>Well…I cut the the condor position in half in aapl. </p>
<p>Risking $160… Could make $840. Extremely doubtful. Probably will not hold the trade. :)</p>
<p>Thanks to razor for mentioning Alibaba. I read an article from quartz that Amazon would be the biggest looser. Bought put options on AMZN and profited nicely. In/out about an hour around lunch time.</p>
<p>Well, the buzz didn’t last long. But the stock’s one-day rise and fall is a good illustration as the value of pre-set conditional orders --or having the right sense of timing like DrGoogle. Good news for many, but if you blinked, you missed it. </p>
<p>:) </p>
<p>I really dont like watching the screen all day long. Watched CNBC all day long. Wasnt that bad. Maybe because I didnt pay that much attention. I am up on the trade…maybe I will just take it off. :)</p>
<p>I am not buying the watch.</p>
<p>I guess it was a down day today and aapl was down. </p>
<p>Volatilty dropped in aapl today especially in the weekly. These people that were long straddles or had positions based on big moves in aapl arent looking too good. These guys may keep the stock in a narrower range as they close out.</p>
<p>Those 90 level puts are .04.</p>
<p>Somebody bought 10,000 of the 107 calls. They cant be trading for much either.</p>
<p>those 90 puts were real low probability - that’s why I said I would be selling not buying them</p>
<p>I know…</p>
<p>More bs about interest rates rising.</p>
<p>“Hail Marys barely ever work in the National Football League, and the investment equivalent doesn’t often pay off in the stock market, either. “Never forget,” Portnoy said. “Doing nothing is one of the most under-appreciated skills in investing.””</p>
<p>Reminds me of a quote that I’m paraphrasing from Livermore: “The hardest thing for an investor to do is sit on his hands and do nothing.”</p>
<p>DocT, so true that’s the problem I’m having. My brother who is the opposite and he did very well in the stock market. Same with my sister.</p>
<p>Yesterday I set up a short for HLF, very damaging article written against it in Seeking Alpha. Made some money and close out the trade. I think it’s easier making money shorting stocks. Maybe the market is peaking.</p>