The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

Low interest rates…

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/low-interest-rates-creating-havoc-fink-122318382.html

Ok, this comes under the heading of “What am I missing?” The question is a product of my long-running flirtation with inverse volatility etns/etfs.

Just to review, in simple terms these instruments have a long-term upward bias because of persistent contango in the futures. But at the same time, they are VERY volatile and can get absolutely crushed if there is a volatility pike. There are ways of dealing with that problem, but, particularly for a person like me who is relatively close to retirement, the bottom line is that you have to really limit your exposure.

However, with svxy at 77.19, I have recently seen 66.50 2026 (not a typo) put options listed for 0.85 ask. Now, because of the long term bias, from a pure actuarial perspective the low premium seems to make perfect sense. But from the perspective of a holder of these instruments, the idea of buying the put looks like a too good to be true opportunity. For just a little over 1%, you get all of the benefits of the upward bias, while at the same time limiting the potential downside to approximately 15%.

Now, in my sometimes unhappy investing experiences, if something seems to be too to be true, it probably is.

What am I missing?

I think those are may 2015 options. You saw those from yahoo finance?

Looks like there was a mistake. The 2026 options do not exist. Click on that ling series of number in the phantom 2026 options and you will see those options translated into May options.

Thanks. I guess it was too good to be true.

Usually is. :slight_smile:

Etsy- not just artsy. Very popular with millenniums for unique products or commissioned works.

Eventually, when we actually get a meaningful correction or the (inevitable?) market crash, it won’t be funny any more, but meanwhile it just cracks me up every time the Dow falls 100 or 200 points the bears come out of the woodwork and claim the end of the world as we know it has arrived, and the next day the market is up more than it was down… cracks me up!

Now there is apparently high speed twitter trading:

http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/04/bot_makes_2_4_million_reading_twitter_meet_the_guy_it_cost_a_fortune.html

That’s a good article.

I worked with a hft company and I was an options market maker so I understand both sides. :slight_smile:

I’m pretty much a C-grade investor who for the most part settles for average market performance. However (maybe because of this) I do read a lot of books in investing, but haven’t really done anything suggested by those who discuss trading strategies, and will probably never do.

Just finished a slightly dated book, “The Motley fool million dollar portfolio” by the Gardners. While I’ve casually read many Motley fool articles, most of which didn’t make much of an impression, I’ve never spent any time on their site. The book itself was quite interesting, except I don’t know how their strategies have worked in the post '08 era.

How do you seasoned investors who’ve followed some of their strategies for building active portfolio feel about them? Needless to say their published results in areas such as “Rule breakers” or “fool” invariably bust the S&P handily, but have any of you followed any of their specific plays on picking companies, or the more general tactics such as dividing the portfolio between US & Intl equities, REITs and commodities, etc?

I need to retire first. I don’t have time now. When I do I go on CC.

I like this article…

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/buzzkill-profs-hedge-funds-half-145947680.html

Well dstark how is it going today?
hope not too bad.

Everybody having fun yet? Any suggestions as to what to do in this investment climate?

Sit tight? I’ll be rebalancing in September. If it stays low, I get to buy some.

I bought some today. Unfortunately, I was in a meeting at 9:30 and missed the opening. I would have bought a lot more if I had been able.

We are back to Jan '14 :frowning:

I’d hate to be the Fed chairman now. To hike or not to hike… that is the question!

This is such nonsense - all this hyperbole about a 25 basis increase and afterwards a very slow rise above that most likely. It’s too bad that we have fed officials out in force trying to contradict each other.

Today’s crash had nothing to do with the US economy, and everything to do with China.

By the way, Shanghai is down another 8% today. Expect another horrible day on Wall Street Tuesday.